抚河中下游2010年大洪水还原及频率分析

根据2010年汛期报汛资料,采用马斯京根法对廖家湾、李家渡水文站洪水进行还原分析,得到廖家湾水文站天然洪峰流量9 620 m3/s,李家渡水文站天然洪峰流量11 900 m3/s.按1952～2010年洪水系列加入历史调查洪水进行频率计算,对2010年洪峰流量的重现期进行分析研究,确认2010年廖家湾站天然洪峰流量的重现期80年一遇,李家渡站天然洪峰流量的重现期30年一遇,该成果可供有关部门参考使用.     

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis in Tunisia: Identification of Regional Distributions

Best-fit distributions of floods in Tunisia are determined based on L-moment diagram and statistical tests. GEV and GLO distributions provided the best fit to seven and three regions of Tunisia respectively. In each homogeneous region, hierarchical approaches and regression models were developed for gauged and ungauged watersheds. The first two parameters of the distributions (GEV and GLO) were estimated from measured data while the third parameter was represented by the regional average value weighted by the record length of all stations in the region. The obtained parameters were correlated to the catchment size. Quantiles obtained by the proposed models were compared with those obtained using local conventional models. Statistical tests showed that the proposed models provided a much better agreement with observed floods than any of the conventional methods generally used in Tunisia.     

乌江彭水-银盘水电站联合防洪调度初探

在上游彭水水电站的预泄调度规则发生改变的情况下,研究下游银盘水电站的预泄策略。经初步研究,为了较大限度地提高水电站的发电效益,在预报精度可靠的情况下,建议在预报银盘入库流量将超过7 500 m3/s时分两个阶段预泄:在入库流量基础上增加流量3 000 m3/s,且要求出库流量不超过12 000 m3/s;当水库水位降低至210.5 m时按照原设计预泄方式调度。该预泄策略为充分考虑联合防洪问题提供了一条有效的技术思路。     

西三洼洪水演进数值模拟及洪水风险分析

为模拟西三洼蓄滞洪区洪水演进,对其洪水风险进行分析,以一、二维非恒定流控制方程为基本理论,采用有限体积法,结合西三洼地形资料及大清河流域水文资料,建立一、二维耦合的洪水演进数学模型。采用63·8洪水实测资料对模型进行验证,结果基本吻合。对不同工况及重现期下的设计洪水进行洪水演进模拟计算并绘制洪水风险图。研究表明:该模型可模拟西三洼蓄滞洪区各分洪口门开扒时间、各时刻淹没面积、淹没水深及滞洪量等水情信息及其变化过程;规划情况(增加安全区)的滞洪总量大于现状情况滞洪总量;发生百年一遇洪水时,西三洼蓄滞洪区77%地区都遭受洪水侵害,其中57%区域为危险区,11%区域为重灾区,5%区域为中灾区。研究成果可为防汛部门制定科学合理的防洪减灾规划提供参考依据。     

北京汛期对卢沟桥污水处理厂运行影响探讨

北京夏季暴雨和强对流天气导致污水处理厂进水的水质水量发生突变,影响污水处理厂的稳定运行,针对降雨水量水质特点,分析探讨汛期对北京市卢沟桥污水处理厂(倒置A2/O工艺)的影响.通过分析可知汛期降雨在一定程度上增加了污水处理厂处理水量、降低了污水中污染物浓度、改变了污水组分、降低了系统脱氮的能力,但此时除磷的效果却有所上升.并在分析其原因的基础上对污水处理厂汛期运行提出展望.     

谈乡镇防办能力建设

阐述了加强乡镇防办能力建设的意义,根据江西省新余市乡镇防汛机构普遍存在的问题,提出相关对策．     

陆屋站“03·06”、“11·10”洪水对比分析

2003年6月和2011年10月钦江陆屋上游发生了改革开放以来两场最大暴雨并产生的洪水,本文通过对“03·06”、“11·10”这两场暴雨洪水进行对比,分析它们的天气系统和洪水特性、演变规律及变化特点,并寻找其规律,并对陆屋站所在的沿海钦江流域的防洪减灾对策进行探讨。对有效地监测暴雨洪水、正确地指挥防汛、提高对该地区暴雨洪水规律和形成机制的认识及防洪减灾具有一定的参考价值。     

抚河流域洪水预警预报与水库联合调度系统

简述抚河流域洪水预警预报与水库联合调度系统，并介绍了该系统的主要特点，为今后江西省各水情中心的建设起到了示范作用．     

柳州市城市防洪体系及现代化建设

柳州市位于柳江中下游河段,是国家重点防洪城市,经过几年的努力,建立了工程防洪体系和非工程防洪体系,目前正在抓紧建设现代化的城市防洪体系建设。     

Structural Change And Innovation In U.S. Telecommunications

This paper reexamines broadly. from the standpoint of innovation, the arguments for vertical integration in the U.S. telecommunications industry in light of structural change since the breakup of the Bell System. While basic and applied research became the casualty of the 1984 breakup and the 1995 AT&T split, there is no evidence that the pace of innovative activity and productivity has slowed. Evidence from R&D and patent data suggests some acceleration of innovative activity. However. the service segment of the industry ceased to be the center of technological innovation. The source of future innovation seems to lie in the telecommunications and Internet equipment firms and independent software firms. The emergence of the competitive stand-alone software industry, combined with a trend towards open operating systems and customer demand for greater flexibility, and growing substitution of technology alliances for in-house R&D appear to have undermined the case for vertical integration in the telecommunications industry. From the standpoint of business strategy, the question of whether a firm like AT&T, notwithstanding its huge investments in cable facilities, can develop distinctive and sustainable capabilities through horizontal expansion and ubiquity and one-stopshopping marketing alone remains open.