鄱阳湖控制浅说

该控制工程主要效益是改变鄱阳湖“夏水冬陆”的现状，成为祖国名符其实的第一大淡水湖，水面与避署胜地庐山和历史名城南昌、景德镇等相连，改善沿湖环境，发展航运，增加水产，开发利用丰富的水资源和旅游资源使之与杭州西湖、瑞士日内瓦湖等并列为世界名湖。     

实行全面质量管理 做好江口水电站工程设计

江口水电站是芙蓉江干流开发中的骨干工程。为认真履行江口工程的设计合同，确保优质、高效地完成江口工程的各项设计工作，长江委设计院实行全面质量管理，建立了一套规范化的统计管理程序，制订详细的设计计划，落实江口工程项目各级责任人的质量责任制，采取特殊技术措施，对工程设计过程中的各项质量活动进行全过程的管理，使江口工程在满足质量标准、合同进度的情况下，工程投资最省。     

鄱阳湖流域水土保持与防洪治涝

鄱阳湖流域水土流失加剧了洪涝灾害。治理水土流失能增强山丘地涵养水源的能力,削洪减沙,减少库容损失,降低河床,具有明显的防洪效益。进行流域防洪规划时,应将防治水土流失与防洪治涝结合起来,因地制宣,综合治理。     

年最大洪峰流量群居蜘蛛优化投影寻踪预测模型

年最大洪峰流量预测,受较多的复杂因素的影响,不确定性较强,用常规统计方法做出准确预报具有较大困难。从水文序列本身出发,提出将投影回归模型应用于年最大洪峰流量预测,为了更好获得投影寻踪模型参数和预测精度,提出了运用延迟相关系数法确定回归预测因子、群居蜘蛛算法优化投影寻踪模型最佳投影方向参数a、利用最小二乘法确定多项式的权系数c、岭函数个数M的群居蜘蛛优化投影寻踪年最大洪峰流量预测模型,结合长江宜昌站(1882年-2004年)的年最大洪峰流量资料进行实例预测,训练阶段平均绝对相对误差为8.61%,预测阶段平均绝对相对误差为10.51%,该模型预测效果较好,模型结果稳定,可有效应用于年最大洪峰流量预测。     

Downscaling of the flood discharge in a probabilistic framework

Many modeled and observed data are in coarse resolution, which are required to be downscaled. This study develops a probabilistic method to downscale 3-hourly runoff to hourly resolution. Hourly data recorded at the Poldokhtar Stream gauge (Karkheh River basin, Iran) during flood events (2009–2019) are divided into two groups including calibration and validation. Statistical tests including Chi-Square and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test indicate that the Burr distribution is proper distribution functions for rising and falling limbs of the floods’ hydrograph in calibration (2009–2013). A conditional ascending/descending random sampling from the constructed distributions on rising/falling limb is applied to produce hourly runoff. The hourly-downscaled runoff is rescaled based on observation to adjust mean three-hourly data. To evaluate the efficiency of the developed method, statistical measures including root mean square error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and correlation are used to assess the performance of the downscaling method not only in calibration but also in validation (2014–2019). Results show that the hourly downscaled runoff is in close agreement with observations in both calibration and validation periods. In addition, cumulative distribution functions of the downscaled runoff closely follow the observed ones in rising and falling limb in two periods. Although the performance of many statistical downscaling methods decreases in extreme values, the developed model performs well at different quantiles (less and more frequent values). This developed method that can properly downscale other hydroclimatological variables at any time and location is useful to provide high-resolution inputs to drive other models. Furthermore, high-resolution data are required for valid and reliable analysis, risk assessment, and management plans.     

World Oil Depletion Models: Price effects compared with strategic or technological interventions

World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis.     

Evaluating flood risk management options in Scotland: A participant-led multi-criteria approach

The characteristics of flood risk management include complexity, large spatial scales, inter-temporal issues, plural values and conflicts of interests. It is argued that issues with such characteristics require public participation in the decision making process. This study builds on existing deliberative processes to develop a new participant-led multi-criteria method to evaluate flood risk management options in Scotland. The results show that participants preferred regeneration or planting of native woodland to other flood management options, and least preferred building flood walls and embankments. The design of the workshops allowed a rich dataset to reveal the thinking behind such results and provided a deeper understanding of why participants came to these conclusions.     

堰塞坝局部溃决输沙率试验研究

本文设计9组堰塞坝溃决的水槽试验,用摄影记录坝体变形的过程,通过录影数据分析,将坝体变形过程数值化,研究坝体级配、坝体内坡和初始溃口宽度对最大输沙率的影响.根据观察到的现象,可以总结以下规律:内坡坡度越大,最大输沙率越大,峰现时刻越早出现;拣选系数越大,最大输沙率先增大,随着粗沙继续增加,反而减小;初始溃口宽度越小,最大输沙率越大,峰现时刻越晚出现.     

金安桥水电站大坝抗震分析和抗震措施设计

金安桥水电站大坝地震设防烈度高达9度,基岩场地设计水平动峰值加速度为0.399 g,大坝抗震分析和抗震措施设计是工程关键性技术问题之一。采用数值计算法和模型试验法对碾压混凝土大坝进行了全面的动力分析,确定了大坝的抗震薄弱部位,为金安桥水电站大坝设计提供了保证。     

基层水利防汛队伍现状与对策

通过对乡(镇)水管站的现状进行分析,总结了基层水利队伍建设存在的问题,提出了加强基层水利队伍建设的建议.