模糊集分析理论与我省水库汛期调度

本文针对北方干旱或半干旱地区的水库在汛期由于汛限水位的限制有水不能蓄、汛后又蓄不上水的矛盾，初步讨论了应用模糊集分析理论合理进行水库汛期调度的问题。     

吉安市“2010·6”暴雨洪水分析

2010年6月,吉安市发生了大范围的持续暴雨洪水过程,由于本次暴雨洪水的特殊性,曾引发了一系列的洪涝灾害甚至溃堤.本文分析了该次暴雨洪水特性及重现期,有利于掌握该地区暴雨洪水的特点,为防汛减灾提供依据.     

钻爆施工隧道围岩爆破损伤累积效应研究

为了合理选择施工方案并为设置安全防护措施提供依据,降低施工诱发地质灾害的风险,研究了隧道施工过程中掌子面多次爆破振动对隧洞围岩带来的累积损伤影响。首先,以质点振动峰值速度作为围岩损伤判定标准,根据围岩损伤程度利用强度折减法设置围岩力学参数,对理论公式进行推导。其次,通过软件进行多次爆破开挖的数值模拟,分析得到爆破损伤的分布规律和范围。最后,量化分析并拟合成果数据,对比不同围岩等级、不同部位爆破损伤的累积效应。结果表明:爆破损伤的累积效应非常明显,且与文献中的测试数据接近;掌子面前方的累积效应最大,其他部位较为接近;Ⅳ级围岩的爆破损伤分布范围最大,其次为Ⅲ级围岩,最小为Ⅴ级围岩;隧道施工过程中考虑岩体安全厚度、安全防护措施等内容时,应当计入累积损伤效应增大系数。研究成果可以广泛应用于水利、交通、矿山等工程项目中,为隧道掘进施工方案和防护措施制定提供数据参考,为安全施工提供保障。     

峰谷分时电价的现状分析与发展趋势探讨

分时电价以经济学均衡价格为理论依据。它在引导客户合理用电、削峰填谷、优化电力资源配置等方面起了积极的作用。但它也存在分时价差幅度小、时段划分长、缺乏灵活性及实施范围窄等问题。完善分时电价运行机制,由分时电价向实时电价转变。     

混凝土面板堆石坝坝体过水保护

天生桥一级水电站混凝土面板堆石坝堆石填筑量大，在大坝填筑施工的第一个汛期，坝体内预留底宽１２０ｍ、边坡１：１．４的梯形泄槽，该泄槽与导流隧洞联合运行承担１９９６年汛期泄洪任务。泄槽过流按３０年一遇洪水标准加以保护，选用直径大于２０ｃｍ的干砌块石护坡，其表面覆盖铁网，并用钢筋框格固定，泄槽重要部位采用钢筋铁丝笼充填块石加以保护。泄槽过流后，抽水检查结果表明，过流保护面无任何冲刷破坏，达到了安全渡汛的     

江西省防汛PDA应用系统设计

防汛PDA系统采用B/S和C/S相结合的构架方式,通过GPRS网络平台,能够清晰而灵活的显示出各种防汛工作所需的信息,为防汛工作者提供了全方位的移动指挥办公手段.     

基于遥感技术的耕地复种指数研究进展

复种是我国重要的农作制度之一,对于提高我国耕地综合生产能力和确保国家粮食安全具有重要作用。该文在介绍复种指数基本概念和研究方法的基础上,对基于遥感技术的耕地复种指数研究进展进行了评述,尤其对时序植被指数平滑方法和复种指数的判别方法等两个关键技术进行了详细阐述。该文提出了遥感技术和地面观测的结合将是未来耕地复种指数遥感监测的发展趋势之一。如何进行遥感数据平滑最优化处理,以及获取高时空分辨率遥感数据及规范准确的地面观测数据将是需要重点解决的关键问题。     

Discourse and practice of participatory flood risk management in Belfast,UK

The introduction of the Floods Directive signals a move from flood protection towards flood risk management in the European Union. Public participation is highlighted in the Floods Directive as being instrumental to effective implementation of this new approach. This study utilised document analysis, non-participant observation, a questionnaire survey, and interviews to evaluate the discourse and practice of participation in the implementation of the Floods Directive in Belfast, United Kingdom. Flood risk management processes in Belfast are found to be high on participatory rhetoric but low on meaningful engagement. The participatory process is lacking in transparency, does not encourage the active participation of interested parties and has not been clearly communicated to key publics. Opportunities to increase meaningful public participation in the process remain underutilised, and the establishment of local flood forums has provided little opportunity for meaningful engagement. Some actions of governance agencies could be best characterised as facilitating the responsibilisation of risk and are designed to manage risk to agencies rather than address flooding issues.     

Quantifying land-use change impacts on the dynamic evolution of flood vulnerability

Recently, dramatic flood disasters have occurred incrementally in several regions of the world. Land-use change as one of the main affecting factors becomes a key component in flood risk management. This study strives to deal with quantifying how changes in land use to affect the dynamic evolution of flood vulnerability. The floodplains of Wuhan, which are located in the Yangtze River Basin, have been selected as an example. In this paper, we use GIS to gather different historical geometric data as sources of land-use information. By proposing the Simpsons-dominance index and location index to analyze the characteristics of land-use changes, and building a quantitative model to measure flood vulnerability, a series of flood vulnerability maps demonstrate differential flood vulnerability of floodplains of Wuhan in three inundation scenarios and four historical periods. Finally, the non-parametric correlation is used to reveal the interactive effect of land use and flood vulnerability. Based on this study, comprehensive flood disaster management strategies for land-use planning are proposed for government decision-makers to reduce the flood vulnerability of Wuhan in future.     

±800kV特高压直流输电线路跨越桑干河洪水计算

根据防洪影响评价要求对山西-江苏±800kV高压直流输电线路,跨越桑干河处的洪水进行分析计算。采用P-Ⅲ型频率曲线,对设计洪峰、洪量进行频率分析,适线时以实测点据为主,适当参照历史洪水;然后通过对不同编制单位设计洪水计算结果进行比较分析后,认为本次计算结果合理。