高端乡村旅游产业与生态环保基础设施协同发展研究——以天津蓟州区为例

在经济新常态下积极推动发展高端乡村旅游产业已经成为我国建设美丽乡村的重要着力点,与此同时反生态问题的不断显现已成为阻碍我国乡村旅游经济实现可持续发展的掣肘,因此,高端乡村旅游产业的发展模式向生态化转型势在必行。以天津市蓟州区乡村旅游景区的环保基础设施为研究对象,从环境情况、设施配备和从业人员3个方面确定了20个影响因素,通过向游客发放问卷进行满意度调查,从游客感知角度的基础上采用IPA模型分析游客对景区环保基础设施的重要性和满意度。结果表明,准则层及指标层感知均值都为游后感知实绩(满意度)<游前期望(重要性),在此基础上提出用冲突协同理论来指导蓟州区高端乡村旅游产业发展中的环境管理工作,实现高端乡村旅游产业与环保基础设施的协同发展,也能为今后的相关研究奠定基础。     

Modelling distribution of aggregate expenditure on tourism

The aim of this article is to obtain a statistical distribution that describes the aggregate expenditure of tourists related to their length of stay at a given location. This distribution enables us to estimate two parameters simultaneously; one controls the length of stay and the other, the expense incurred. We propose two distribution models, for which closed-form expressions are obtained. Covariates are introduced in order to study the factors that affect the aggregate expenditure. The results obtained indicate that the models achieve a reasonably good fit, with and without covariates.     

Nitrogen dry deposition to Lake Superior and Lake Michigan

Nitrate (NO₃^?) levels in Lake Superior have increased from historic levels of about 5?μM to its current concentration of about 25?μM. The atmosphere makes a substantial contribution to the nitrogen budgets for Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. This study provides a more well-defined estimate of nitrogen dry deposition rates derived from the measurement of over-water concentrations, and in situ meteorological measurements, which were input into the Resistance Model. We obtained a nitrogen dry deposition rate of [(3.41?±?2.26)?×?10⁷?kg?N/yr; (5.90?±?3.91)?kg?N/ha/yr] over Lake Michigan, and [(1.54?±?1.06)?×?10⁷?kg?N/yr; (1.87?±?1.27)?kg?N/ha/yr] over Lake Superior. Nitric acid (HNO₃), which originates from the combustion of fossil fuels, contributes 84% of the total nitrogen dry deposition to Lake Michigan; and 66% to Lake Superior. Ammonia (NH₃), which originates from agricultural activities and gasoline combustion, is the second highest contributor of nitrogen dry deposition to both lakes: contributing 13% to Lake Michigan and 32% to Lake Superior. The nitrogen dry deposition is approximately 68% of the nitrogen wet deposition over Lake Superior, and approximately 80% of wet deposition over Lake Michigan. The over-water dry deposition velocity of HNO₃ and NH₃ were also evaluated. We obtained morning deposition velocities of 0.099?cm/s for NH₃ and 0.095?cm/s for HNO₃; and afternoon values of 0.137?cm/s for NH₃ and 0.132?cm/s for HNO₃. Another key finding is that the atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen compounds near Lake Michigan and Lake Superior have decreased since 2003.     

城市房地产预警系统的设计与开发

本文将计算机信息系统建模技术引入到城市房地产预警领域,探讨设计与开发城市房地产预警系统的技术与方法,并以武汉为例,开发实用的城市房地产预警系统。     

AHP和0-1整数规划方法在物流系统零售点选址中的应用研究

物流系统零售点选址所涉及的影响因素众多,这些因素中既有定性因素,又有定量因素。首先用层次分析法对这些影响因素进行处理,得到了各备选点的权值。针对层次分析法无法解决条件约束问题,提出了用层次分析法和0-1整数规划法相结合用于零售点选址的模型。最后,通过示例证明该模型能有效地处理物流系统零售点选址问题。     

创业网络的概念发展——一个系统的三维模型

创业网络研究已经取得了较为丰富的成果,但是对于创业网络概念本身还缺乏系统化的概念框架。本文对创业网络概念进行了界定,并且从关系主体、关系属性、关系产出三个维度对创业网络概念内涵进行了探讨,基于上述分析,本文提出了一个系统的创业网络三维概念模型。     

主题公园游客流稳定性测评——以深圳华侨城为例

保持稳定的游客流是提高主题公园经营业绩和管理绩效、延长主题公园生命周期的有效途径之一。本文从主题公园自身特点出发,构建了主题公园游客流稳定性驱动模型,建立了主题公园游客流稳定性测评体系,并以深圳华侨城为例,通过因子分析和结构方程分析,对景区的游客流稳定性进行测评,分析各综合变量对游客流稳定性的驱动作用的大小以及变量之间的相互影响关系,为主题公园调控游客流稳定性提供参考依据。     

入境旅游:基于引力模型的实证研究

本文利用传统的国际贸易引力模型,考察了影响中国入境旅游的一些因素,包括经济发展水平、绝对距离、地理与文化上的差异性(共同性)、是否属于同一个贸易区,以及国家之间是否免签证等.我们发现,这些因素对解释变量具有明确的影响,但影响最大的是绝时距离和经济发展水平.在上述基础上,我们考察了入境旅游对几个主要变量的扰动所形成的响应路径.     

Evolution of indigenous tourism among the Lacandon of Chiapas: an application of Weaver’s model

ABSTRACT

In this paper, Weaver’s six-stage indigenous tourism model is applied to the Lacandon Maya (Hach Winik) of Chiapas, Mexico. Based on a comprehensive review of the anthropological and historical literature on this indigenous group, combined with longitudinal ethnographic and collaborative research performed with tourism entrepreneurs, the Lacandon tourism experience is assessed from the pre-European period until present. By analysing a case study of indigenous tourism in Mexico, a developing country in another geographical region and with a different colonial past, this work supplements Weavers’ perspective. The results show that the fourth and fifth stages of Weaver’s model coincide in this case study, while the sixth stage is still incomplete. Although the Lacandon case has its peculiarities and bearing in mind that several different factors should be considered in the Latin American context, the model proves to be an interesting tool for indigenous tourism analysis in developing countries.     

An Initial Investigation of Integrating Innovation Diffusion Models for Drawing First‐time Visitors

Prior studies in the existing tourism literature have frequently emphasized the relatively expensive costs for drawing first‐time visitors. These studies, however, have largely failed to explain how to draw first‐time visitors to a destination. In other words, little was known regarding what destinations should do to attract first‐time visitors in an effective way. To provide more insights, this research investigated the impact of three diffusion models on attracting first‐time visitors. These models included an external influence model for impact of mass media, an internal influence model for impact of interpersonal communications, and a mixed model for impacts of both mass media and interpersonal communications. Assessing the model impact in a macroapproach for first‐time visitors to Hong Kong, empirical findings indicated that the mixed influence model provided the highest explanatory quality, with word‐of‐mouth being a dominant factor.