黄河干流白银市水川段水面线计算方法对比分析

为克服能量方程逐段试算方法在河道水面线计算上存在的不足与局限,本文以黄河干流白银市水川段为例,采用二维水动力数值计算模型,对4种洪水频率工况下黄河干流白银市段的水面线高程进行计算,并将二维数值计算结果与能量方程计算结果进行复核和评价。经计算可知两种计算方法在计算结果上存在偏差,能量方程在河道水面线计算上是一种近似成果,而二维数值计算能够更加真实反映河道的实际情况,因此在水面线计算时推荐二维数值计算方法。     

水源涵养内涵及估算方法综述

水源涵养和生态系统过程与人类生产生活紧密相关,深入研究水源涵养对维持生态系统健康和人类社会可持续发展至关重要,对促进人与水和谐共生具有指导意义。随着对水源涵养研究与应用的深入,水源涵养内涵逐渐丰富,评估方法愈加多样,但以往的研究中水源涵养定义模糊,缺乏对各种评估方法的综合性对比分析,因此急需明确界定水源涵养内涵,分析各种估算方法的适用性。采用文献分析法系统梳理水源涵养研究历程,将其划分为认识与萌芽期、理论发展期、定量计算和模型综合评估等4个阶段;从定义、水量与功能等3个方面明确界定水源涵养内涵,从原理、时空尺度、适用范围及优缺点方面对已有水源涵养量估算方法进行对比和分析,并展望水源涵养研究的未来发展方向。     

基于关键闸坝优选的区域水网水量调控

为实现区域水网水量的高效调控,从水量、水生态、水质和闸坝管理等4个方面构建包含10个指标的闸坝优选评价指标体系,以廊坊市凤河-永定河区域水网为研究对象,计算区域内32座闸坝的综合关键指数并给出影响程度排序,采用水动力数学模型验证关键闸坝选取的合理性。结果表明：优选出的永丰闸和东张务闸是区域水网的关键闸坝,通过调节这两座闸坝的开度即可满足区域水网的生态需水和防洪排涝调度目标,保持区域水网较优的水力连通能力,提高区域水网水量调控效率。     

妫水河入官厅水库水污染成因及减排措施评估

为保障妫水河入官厅水库入流水质达标,分析水质成因,分步制订水质改善措施。采用MIKE21耦合植物作用的Ecolab生态水质模型,对妫水河下游入官厅水库断面至东大桥断面、支流三里河水域进行模拟。通过对丰水期和枯水期监测数据及模拟结果进行分析,流域上游来流水量及水质、区间污染源及河流湿地等自净作用是影响官厅水库入流水质的主要原因,其中:妫水河入流污染负荷对水库入流水质贡献率最大,丰枯水期氨氮、总磷和总氮的贡献率分别为18.32%～45.76%、9.31%～31.17%和29.34%～67.56%;区间入河污染源氨氮、总磷和总氮削减率分别为19.41%、31.31%和24.94%;丰枯水期河道自净对氨氮、总磷和总氮削减率分别为44.85%～61.29%、51.40%～77.92%和8.40%～23.06%。为改善官厅水库入流水质,在流经城市区的妫水河下游及三里河修建了河流湿地公园,对区域污染源进行截污,使得入库水质可达到Ⅲ类水。为长远确保官厅水库的水质,控制来流水质和加强流域治理是关键,同时营造岸带湿地,对水质改善有积极的作用。研究结果及方法可为水库污染防治及负荷量削减提供理论依据。     

R&D项目投资评估的实物期权方法初探

本文分析了传统的NPV法在R&D项目投资评估中的缺陷,指出R&D项目投资本质上所具有的期权特性。在此基础上引入了实物期权方法,包括Black-Scholes期权定价方法和Geske期权定价模型。     

工程建设PM、CM和PMC三种模式的比较

PM、CM和PMC是三种不同的工程建设模式,产生于不同的历史阶段和市场条件,有着各自的特点和适用范围。文章介绍了三种模式的基本含义及特征,在组织、合同、工作范围以及风险和责任等方面进行了比较研究,并对三种模式的优势和适用条件进行了分析,最后强调在应用时,应根据项目的不同情况和条件来加以选择。     

Progressive stress accelerated life tests under finite mixture models

In this paper, progressive stress accelerated life tests are considered when the lifetime of a product under use condition follows a finite mixture of distributions. The experiment is performed when each of the components in the mixture follows a general class of distributions which includes, among others, the Weibull, compound Weibull, power function, Gompertz and compound Gompertz distributions. It is assumed that the scale parameter of each component satisfies the inverse power low, the progressive stress is directly proportional to time and the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress holds. Based on type-I censoring, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the parameters under consideration are obtained. A special attention is paid to a mixture of two Rayleigh components. Simulation results are carried out to study the precision of the MLEs and to obtain confidence intervals for the parameters involved.     

The Theory of Socially Embedded Games: Applications and Extensions to Open and Closed Games

An earlier article, drawing on the mathematical theory of rules and rule complexes, extends and generalizes game theory (GGT). The theory has been used to conceptualize and analyze diverse social relationships, roles, and games as particular types of rule complexes.For instance, a social role, as a major basis of a parent's action in a game, consists of at least four key components – which are mathematical objects – in the determination of action: value complex, model of reality (including beliefs and knowledge bases), a repertoire of acts, routines, programs, and strategies, and modality, a role-specific algorithm for determining or generating action in game settings. This article applies and extends GGT in analyses of a market bargaining game (a type of open game) and of the classical game of prisoners' dilemma (a type of closed game). The applications show the concrete effects of social embeddedness on game structuring, game interaction patterns and outcomes, and social equilibria.     

高校多维会计诚信教育模式构建

本文分析了会计诚信在高校会计教育中的现状,阐述了高校开展多维会计诚信教育的必要性,并从课堂教学会计诚信理念的灌输、实践环节诚信行为的培育、会计工作过程中诚信的反馈、校园环境中诚信习惯的养成、建立“大学生诚信档案”实行全程信用记录等方面,全方位、多角度地构建高校多维会计诚信教育模式。     

Analysis of cointegrated VARMA processes

VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) processes are proposed for modelling cointegrated variables. For this purpose the echelon form is combined with the error correction form. Procedures for estimating the Kronecker indices which characterize the echelon form and for specifying the cointegration rank are discussed. The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient estimators is given. An example based o n US macroeconomic data illustrates the procedure and demonstrates its feasibility in practice.