斯坦纳生态规划模式及其对衡水湖生态建设的启示

斯坦纳的生态规划模式立足复合生态系统的结构与功能,对系统要素及其结构进行设计,实现整体人文生态系统的平衡性、和谐性和健康性。文章阐述了斯坦纳生态规划模式的11个相互影响的步骤,并从倡导生态文化、提倡公众参与和构建衡水湖生态规划适用模式三个方面,提出了对衡水湖生态建设的启示。     

鄱阳湖口生态水利工程方案探讨

维系良好的水生态环境,是环鄱阳湖地区经济发展的重要保障和支撑,也是实现人水和谐的前提条件。针对鄱阳湖水文特性和近期存在干旱等问题,并考虑到三峡工程建成运行后对鄱阳湖生态环境的潜在影响,藉此探讨了鄱阳湖控制工程建设的必要性及其原则,进而借鉴国内外经验,从生态环境保护角度,提出了一个仿都江堰式的生态水利工程设计概念方案。该方案能够遵循河流湖泊自然规律,在不影响防洪和江湖联通性的前提下,适度调控鄱阳湖与长江之间的水力联系,尽量保持湖区水位变化平缓、延缓汛后湖水外泄,以避免湖区出现不利于生态环境和社会经济发展的极端洪涝和干旱;而且该方案与环鄱阳湖生态经济区建设相协调,具有明显的生态效益和景观效应,能够促进该地区生态旅游文化发展。     

城陵矶洪水位抬高原因分析

近50年来城陵矶站年最高洪水位累计抬高了约1.5m，通过一维非恒定流数学模型研究说明，城陵矶至汉口河段淤积只抬高了洪水位约0.2～0.3m，不是城陵矶洪水位抬高的主要因素。通过理论探讨和实测资料分析说明，由于洞庭湖容积减小等因素影响，近50年来螺山水文站年最大日平均流量累计增大了约7000m3/s，抬高洪水位约1.2m，是洞庭湖区洪水频率增加和城陵矶洪水位抬高的主要因素，在制定长江中游和洞庭湖区防洪规划时应加以考虑。     

Movement and growth indicators in resident and adfluvial coaster brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in the Hurricane River,Lake Superior,Michigan, USA

Brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are found throughout Lake Superior, Lake Nipigon, and their tributaries. Lacustrine and adfluvial life history variants were historically popular with anglers and were called coasters; coaster brook trout populations are now severely reduced and are of conservation concern. Coasters were known to grow larger and mature later than their stream resident counterparts. This study compared movement patterns, age, size, condition, and relative weight of wild coaster and resident brook trout from the Hurricane River, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, Michigan. Wild brook trout ≥ 100 mm from the Hurricane River downstream from Hurricane Falls were tagged with passive integrated transponder tags and monitored for stream-lake movement behavior from May 2003 to November 2007. During 2006 and 2007, brook trout were scale sampled and aged to construct a regression that was then used to calculate the age of all brook trout tagged from 2003 to 2007. Most brook trout movement took place in the fall with October the peak month of emigration with a secondary peak in late spring/early summer and some activity nearly year round. There were no differences found in age structure, size or condition between coasters and residents while in the stream. Our data suggest that a priori growth differences are not determining the expression of coaster outmigration and that stream-lake movements made by coasters, likely driven by habitat requirements, may be highly flexible and facultative.     

1955—2020年博斯腾湖水盐收支估算与水盐平衡分析

为了探讨变化环境下开都河来水、人类水土开发和水利工程调节等对博斯腾湖水盐收支变化规律的影响,根据开都-孔雀河流域河流-湖泊-水利工程间的水力联系及水盐运移转化过程,构建了博斯腾湖水盐收支平衡模型,基于1955—2020年气象、水文、矿化度、开发利用的观测资料,分析了博斯腾湖逐年、分阶段和多年平均水盐收支变化规律。结果表明,受开都河来水和人类活动的影响,1955—2020年博斯腾湖水盐变化具有明显的4阶段特征。1987年以来水盐变化速率明显升高;焉耆盆地和孔雀河引水量较为稳定,开都河入湖水量占总入湖水量的81.89%,在1955—2020年博斯腾湖水位变化中起主导作用;1955—1987年农田排盐量占总入湖盐量的37.24%,其中1972—1986年农田排盐量接近总入湖盐量的50%,农田排盐量是湖水矿化度急剧升高的主要原因;1983年博斯腾湖西泵站运行后,湖水矿化度整体处于下降趋势,2020年降低到1.0 g/L以下。新时期在对开都-孔雀河流域严格遵守水资源三条红线控制的同时,加强扬水泵站、宝浪苏木分水闸及达吾提闸的联合运行,完全可以将湖水矿化度控制在1.0 g/L水平以下。研究结论可为博斯腾湖可持续利用和管理提供参考。     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

关于镜泊湖风景区生态环境保护与利用

镜泊湖风景区是黑龙江重要的旅游和度假圣地,具有丰富多彩的湖泊环境,奇特壮观的火山熔岩特点,国内罕见的地下森林景观以及历史悠久的人文经济。由于受到人类活动的影响,镜泊湖风景资源正在承受到潜在的危机,应亟待解决镜泊湖生态环境保护,并制定开发建设规划。     

天目湖景区旅游服务质量满意度调查研究

景区旅游服务质量满意度是景区长远发展的软实力和竞争的关键因素。本文通过天目湖景区服务质量满意度调查分析,找出满意度存在的问题,提出提升天目湖旅游景区服务质量满意度的对策和建议,以促进天目湖景区的深度发展。     

打造湖泊休闲品牌,促进千岛湖旅游可持续发展

湖泊是发展旅游的重要资源,湖泊旅游是旅游业的重要组成部分①。近年来,千岛湖旅游实现了观光游与休闲游的有机结合,重点培育休闲度假游,提升景区的品位。根据淳安县政府提出的打造“休闲度假胜地”、“世界湖泊休闲品牌”的重大决策,结合世界湖泊旅游的未来发展趋势开展调研,提出了世界湖泊休闲品牌打造对促进千岛湖旅游可持续发展有着重大的现实意义。     

环洞庭湖区域公共事务合作治理及其机制建设研究

随着现代市场体制改革逐步深入、信息化迅猛发展和区域经济一体化加速,跨区域公共事务日渐剧增。环洞庭湖区域产业布局、重大基础设施建设、湖区水资源管理、环境污染治理、共同资源开发、灾害等突发事件应急等一系列跨区域公共事务的不断涌现,传统区域行政模式和单个地方政府的理性行为导致了大量的跨区域公共事务无法有效解决,亟待建立健全包括信任、协调、沟通和监督机制在内的环洞庭湖区域公共事务合作治理体系,从而实现环湖区公共事务的良性有效治理。