基于PSR模型的区域高技术产业创新要素供给评价

区域高技术产业高质量发展需要创新要素有效供给。基于PSR（压力—状态—响应)模型构建高技术产业创新要素供给评价指标体系，采用全局熵法对我国创新要素有效供给现状进行评价，并度量创新要素供给协调度，从创新要素供给综合指数和子系统协调度两个方面评价创新要素有效供给水平。在此基础上将我国区域创新要素供给分为5个梯度，并运用障碍因素诊断模型，分析影响各梯度省域高技术产业创新要素有效供给实现的主要障碍因素。研究发现，影响有效供给的主要障碍层从2009年的压力层与状态层转变为2018年的响应层与状态层，高技术产业发展水平等成为主要障碍因素。各省域应依据自身要素供给主要障碍层和障碍因子，结合自身创新要素供给所处梯度，采取针对性措施，通过强链、补链、固链相结合，实现区域高技术产业创新要素有效供给。     

Analysis and Forecast of the State of Environmental Protection in Russia

The main purpose of the present study is to analyse the emission dynamics of atmospheric and water pollutants in Russia and cost of their removal in the 1980s and early 1990s, and to forecast them by means of a Dynamic Input–Output Model according to different scenarios of future economic development till 1998. Main results of the work are:– methodological principles have been elaborated for singling out the environmental protection sector within the national economy;– a method has been offered for including the ecological block into a Dynamic Input–Output Model of the Russian economy;– a method of data preparation has been elaborated for the ecological block of the above-named model, the data base which characterizes the ecological situation in Russia has been formed and analysed;– calculations for 1994–1998 have been executed for forecasting the economic and ecological development of Russia using the above-mentioned model and the results obtained have been analysed. The results showed that if the existing tendencies towards low environmental protection capital costs remain the same, then the negative environmental impact will increase. In order to implement ecological programs and international agreements, to increase the proportion of removed pollutants, it is necessary to increase substantially expenditures on purifying water and air resources. The proportion of environmental protection investments in the total amount of the national economy capital costs should increase by up to 12–40% according to different scenarios of the economic development and different purposes of the environmental protection policy.     

大股东对上市公司掏空与支持的经济学分析

在公司的所有权安排中,大股东拥有公司的控制权,有能力为获取控制权的私人利益而侵占上市公司的资源。但是,当上市公司陷入经营困境时,大股东可能通过减少自己的侵占行为而使公司具有偿债能力,甚至会用自己的资源进行支持以防止公司破产。如果上市公司的投资回报率低于大股东的预期水平,或者预期上市公司无法继续生存下去时,大股东会以公司外部股东和债权人的利益为代价而对上市公司进行掠夺。     

资本形成路径与资本存量调整模型——基于中国转型时期的分析

本文综合考察了我国生产性资本的总量水平、形成路径及其调整机制。通过改进的方法所估算的资本存量在改革开放以来已经翻了不止两番 ,年平均增长率为7 3 6 % ,积累极为迅速。资本形成路径明显分为两个阶段 ,增量改革推动的配置效率改进使资本—产出比率在 1 994年之前持续下降 ,而近年来的资本形成过快是由于经济增长越来越倚重资本深化 ,必须通过全方位结构调整加快转型进程。本文进一步给出了我国转型期资本存量调整的供求决定框架 ,实证结果表明 ,需求导向的资本存量调整机制和投资行为已经在中国的转型经济中基本形成 ,产出水平与资本成本均为资本调整与投资需求的主要决定因素     

股票内在投资价值理论与中国股市泡沫问题

股票内在投资价值理论是评估股票内在投资价值的依据。而只有准确评估了股票的内在投资价值,投资者和决策者才能正确认识股市泡沫问题。本文首先对股票内在投资价值理论做了综述,然后对目前最前沿的股票内在投资价值模型(基于帐面价值和剩余收益的F O模型)做了改进,使之更具有实用价值。接着利用改进后的F O模型,测算了中国股市目前的内在投资价值以及中国股市泡沫的绝对规模和相对规模。计算表明,与2 0 0 1年6月份股市高峰期相比,2 0 0 4年底中国股市泡沫的绝对规模和相对规模都已大幅度下降。文章最后提出了几点政策建议。     

钻石理论模型述评

在对波特钻石理论模型概述后，主要从卡特赖特（Cartwright）的多因素钻石模型，邓宁（Dunning）的国际化钻石模型，鲁格曼和克鲁兹（Rugman，Cruz）的双钻石模型，穆恩、鲁格曼和沃伯克（Moon，Rugman，Verbeke）的一般化的双重钻石模型，乔东逊（Cho．D．Sung）的九要素模型等方面对波特钻石理论模型的拓展进行了综述，对波特钻石理论模型作了评论，并对模型进行了修正。     

高校科研业绩评价模型研究

对高校科研业绩评价的性质、作用、方法及缺陷作了较系统的分析和探讨，并依据高校的实际提出了定量和定性相结合的科研业绩评价模型，对高校科研管理的创新研究工作有一定参考价值。     

Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for six watersheds of Lake Erie: Model parameterization and calibration

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically-based watershed-scale model, holds promise as a means to predict tributary sediment and nutrient loads to the Laurentian Great Lakes. In the present study, model performance is compared across six watersheds draining into Lake Erie to determine the applicability of SWAT to watersheds of differing characteristics. After initial model parameterization, the Huron, Raisin, Maumee, Sandusky, Cuyahoga, and Grand SWAT models were calibrated (1998-2001) and confirmed, or validated (2002-2005), individually for stream water discharge, sediment loads, and nutrient loads (total P, soluble reactive P, total N, and nitrate) based on available datasets. SWAT effectively predicted hydrology and sediments across a range of watershed characteristics. SWAT estimation of nutrient loads was weaker although still satisfactory at least two-thirds of the time across all nutrient parameters and watersheds. SWAT model performance was most satisfactory in agricultural and forested watersheds, and was less so in urbanized settings. Model performance was influenced by the availability of observational data with high sampling frequency and long duration for calibration and confirmation evaluation. In some instances, it appeared that parameter adjustments that improved calibration of hydrology negatively affected subsequent sediment and nutrient calibration, suggesting trade-offs in calibrating for hydrologic vs. water quality model performance. Despite these considerations, SWAT accurately predicted average stream discharge, sediment loads, and nutrient loads for the Raisin, Maumee, Sandusky, and Grand watersheds such that future use of these SWAT models for various scenario testing is reasonable and warranted.     

基于贝叶斯模型加权平均方法的水文模型不确定性分析

贝叶斯模型加权平均（BMA）方法是通过综合几个模型预报值的后验分布来推断预报量的更可靠概率分布分析工具。它不仅能提供一个综合的预报值,还能提供一个综合的预报区间。本文采用3个水文模型,统一用SCE-UA算法率定参数,得到3组不同的预报值用于BMA方法的综合,着重分析比较BMA和单个模型的预报不确定性区间,来检验贝叶斯模型加权平均方法是否能提高预报的可靠性。结果表明,BMA方法不仅能提高预报精度,还能推求出性质更为优良的预报区间,提高预报的可靠性。     

黄河巴彦高勒蒸发实验站水面蒸发模型的建立

采用分段风速函数建立了黄河巴彦高勒蒸发实验站的道尔顿水面蒸发模型,计算结果表明:当风速小于3 m/s时,模型计算蒸发量与实测蒸发量相关关系很好,可基本消除水面蒸发经验公式在不同风速段出现不同系统性误差的现象;风速大于3 m/s时,模型计算结果不太理想。