基于GIS的乌江流域新安江模型参数率定

为了使新安江模型的运用更能真实反映流域的基本特征及产汇流机理,利用地理信息系统空间分析的功能,由数字高程模型导出乌江武隆以上流域的流域排水网,并在此基础上提取汇流长度及坡度等地形特征值。在地理信息系统平台上,计算出流域下垫面的植被、土壤、地貌等特征值,并将其与流域模型参数建立相关关系。结果表明,各流域模拟的确定性系数及模拟精度均较高。因此,预报结果更加合理,理论依据也更加可靠。     

TYPHOON PROCESS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA

A severe typhoon Utor,occurring between July 3 and 8,2001,brought heavy rainfall,strong wind and storm surge.Utor was responsible for tremendous destruction and economic losses in Philippines,Taiwan and Guangdong.An air-sea model system (MM5 and Princeton Ocean Model(POM))was built to simulate meteorological dynamics and ocean circulation in the South China Sea(SCS).In the POM the output of MM5 was used as the input data.With an increased number of vertical levels,a high-resolution planetary boundary layer scheme and updated landuse/vegetation data,the accuracy of computing wind,temperature and other meteorological fields are improved in near surface and upper levels in MM5 simulations.The simulated trajectory and wind speed of Utor are close to the observed results.The simulated distribution of rainfall is accorded well with measured data in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)area.At different meteorological stations in Hong Kong,the wind,temperature and sea surface pressure are well simulated.The simulated ocean surface current and surface temperature fields have an obvious rightward-biased response to the typhoon Utor,and the maximum velocity and the lowest temperature region appear in the 30 km of the right side of the typhoon track.The typhoon Utor could make the water 50m under the surface ocean unwell to surface and the ocean surface temperature decrease by about 2°C.     

基于有限元法的E-K模型参数敏感性分析

模型参数的确定是数值分析过程中的重要环节,合理把握参数的选取原则,可大大提高结构分析的可靠度以及参数反分析的计算效率.本文借助有限单元法考察了E-K模型参数变化对一个均质堤坝的位移和应力值的影响程度.通过分析明确了E-K模型中各参数对计算结果的敏感程度,同时提出了模型参数的选取原则.     

箱形涵洞对河床水沙特性影响的试验研究

以漳河的穿河涵洞为对象,采用物理模型的方法,就3年一遇和50年一遇洪水工况时箱形涵洞所在河道的沿程水位、上下游各断面流速及其下游河床局部冲淤变形等问题进行了试验观测,探讨了箱形涵洞对河床水沙特性的影响。试验表明:在3年一遇和50年一遇洪水工况下,箱形涵洞对上游河床的壅水较少,最大壅水高度分别为0.57m和0.3m;涵洞上游各断面的平均流速较无涵洞时有所减小,且断面横向流速分布曲线更平坦。在迎水面出现了河中心流速较左右岸流速大的现象;在涵洞下游较远的CS8断面的平均流速分别为1.8m/s和3.7m/s,与无涵洞时相差不大;在3年一遇洪水工况下,箱形涵洞洞后能形成Fr=4.52的稳定水跃,使得箱形涵洞下游CS6断面的河床局部冲刷较少,其平均冲刷深度约为0.5m。由此可见,箱形涵洞具有较优的水力条件。     

南水北调丹江口加高工程施工栈桥结构模态分析

振动模态分析是桥梁结构设计的重要步骤。利用大型有限元软件ANSYS,对南水北调丹江口大坝加高工程38号-25号坝后架设的临时施工运输栈桥结构进行模态分析,计算了栈桥结构的前八阶固有频率与主振型。研究认为,当受到外部激励的频率与固有频率接近时,有可能产生共振,从而严重损害栈桥结构;栈桥第4、5、6、8跨是其薄弱环节,使用过程中应避免同频率的车辆在上面停留。研究结果为栈桥结构的动力学设计提供了重要依据,也可为其他同类型的结构设计提供参考。     

APPLICATION OF QUADRATIC AND CUBIC TURBULENCE MODELS ON CAVITATING FLOWS AROUND SUBMERGED OBJECTS

Quadratic and cubic Non-Linear Eddy-Viscosity Models(NLEVMs) at low Reynolds number correction were introduced into the present Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) framework,to provide better numerical treatment about the anisotropic turbulence stress in cavitating flows,which have large density ratio and large-scaled swirling flow structures.The applications of these NLEVMs were carried out through a self-developed cavitation code,coupled with a cavitation model based on the transport equation of liquid phase.These NLEVMs were firstly validated by the benchmark of disk supercavity,and found able to obtain more accurate capture of the hydrodynamic properties than the linear models.One of such models was further applied on the cavitation problem of submerged vehicles.Ultimately,the supercavitating flows around an especially designed underwater vehicle were predicted using the cubic turbulence model,and its cavitation behaviors were studied.     

存在风险条件下的资本市场投资预期收益模型研究

风险是指预期收益的不确定性,是指在将来一段时间内遭受损失的可能性.进行资本市场投资,必然存在风险.资本市场投资风险就是投资预期结果(预期收益损失)的不确定性,有投资风险,就会有投资者对其进行的预期.本文建立了存在风险条件下的资本市场投资预期收益模型,并由此得出了不同投资者的预期收益--风险偏好的不同投资选择.     

刘易斯模型与托达罗模型的否定之否定--城市化战略的理论回顾与现实思考

城市化是刘易斯二元经济发展理论的基本政策含义。否定刘易斯模型的托达罗模型导致了农业发展低水平均衡、经济增长低效率和经济结构低级化等消极后果。走出托达罗困境的可行选择 ,是经过修正和补充的刘易斯模型的复归。伴随着发展中国家经济发展战略重点的转换 ,经济发展理论走出了一条螺旋式上升的成长道路     

由海外应收账款危机提出的优化我国信用管理模式的立体模型

2004年中国进出口贸易额历史性地突破一万亿美元大关,成为继美国、德国之后的世界第三大贸易大国。但是,反倾销和反补贴等对外贸易壁垒之后,又一问题凸现出来。据权威推算,迄今我国至少有1000亿美元的海外应收账款无法收回,并且这个数字还将继续增加。对此,理论界众说纷纭,从不同角度为解决这一问题出计献策,但一直没有一个整体的框架成型。为了系统而又清晰地解决我国海外应收账款“黑洞”,优化信用管理模式,笔者提出了一种模型。