Steady state adjusting trends using a data-driven local polynomial regression

Economic variables usually follow a dynamic trend pattern. However, it is difficult to estimate this trend precisely as numerous economically- and statistically-based estimation methods exist. This contribution proposes a data-driven nonparametric trend that is local polynomial, to improve arbitrary trend estimations of commonly used methods concerning the selection of the smoothing parameter and the dependence structure. An iterative plug-in (IPI) algorithm determines the bandwidth endogenously and allows a theory-based interpretation of the length of growth processes. This length of the bandwidth reflects the lengths of the steady state periods. Consequently, the bandwidth identifies the time period of stable economic conditions and can detect economic changes. To demonstrate the power of this estimation approach, an extensive simulation study is performed. Furthermore, examples using US and UK GDP data along with a guide for the optimal choice of algorithms for empirical applications are provided. This proposed method yields new insights for growth dynamics, cyclical movements and their dependence.     

台兰河灌区骨干工程节水改造对生态环境的影响及治理对策

通过采用层次分析法（AHP法）对台兰河灌区骨干工程节水改造所产生的生态环境影响进行分析和研究，结果表明：施工期的水土流失、水质、植被、生物多样性、水量指标的权重较大，而运营期的灌溉效益、人群健康、景观、土地利用影响指标的权重较大。根据这一分析结果，我们分别对施工期和运营期的主要生态环境影响提出了综合治理对策，以此降低对它的负面影响，并为后续的水利工程生态环境研究提供新的视角。     

Azéma martingales for Bessel and CIR processes and the pricing of Parisian zero‐coupon bonds

In this paper, we study the excursions of Bessel and Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) processes with dimensions . We obtain densities for the last passage times and meanders of the processes. Using these results, we prove a variation of the Azéma martingale for the Bessel and CIR processes based on excursion theory. Furthermore, we study their Parisian excursions, and generalize previous results on the Parisian stopping time of Brownian motion to that of the Bessel and CIR processes. We obtain explicit formulas and asymptotic results for the densities of the Parisian stopping times, and develop exact simulation algorithms to sample the Parisian stopping times of Bessel and CIR processes. We introduce a new type of bond, the zero‐coupon Parisian bond. The buyer of such a bond is betting against zero interest rates, while the seller is effectively hedging against a period where interest rates fluctuate around 0. Using our results, we propose two methods for pricing these bonds and provide numerical examples.     

工业锅炉煤改气客户细分模型及其应用——基于层次分析和熵权修正的模糊综合评价理论

煤改气是加快调整工业锅炉能源结构、改善大气环境质量的重要措施之一。燃气运营商欲开拓工业锅炉煤改气市场，应正确辨别终端市场客户的类别。从行业特性、企业特性、锅炉状况和客户开发潜力4个方面构建工业锅炉煤改气客户细分评价指标体系，用AHP－修正熵组合赋权方法确定评价指标权重，建立工业锅炉煤改气客户细分模型并开展应用。评价结果兼顾客观属性与主观偏好，符合客观实际，可为燃气运营商开展差异化管理，采取多元化营销模式提供决策依据。     

Innovation and its diffusion: process,actors and actions

Seeking to understand factors affecting innovation diffusion, research has increasingly focused on process, actors and activities. After two decades of research, however, a systematisation of these three sets of studies is still lacking. Thus, this paper contributes to the existing literature providing a comprehensive framework of factors affecting innovation diffusion between organisations. Specifically it evidences phases of innovation diffusion process, clarifies the role of innovator, adopters and intermediaries and evidences actions that policy-makers can implement to support it.     

嬗变的传统:赣南闽西重修族谱的过程考察

当代赣南闽西地区的修谱活动,既很大程度地继承了传统,也在传统的基础上发生了一定的嬗变,体现了一些符合时代特点的新特征。一方面,修谱活动的组织过程保持了诸多传统的特色,如谱局的成立、调草、发谱仪式等。另一方面,当代宗族也注重吸收现代社会的组织理念和新鲜经验,比如成立更趋民主和平等色彩的现代组织机构理事会;经费筹集上更多地是采用灵活多样的市场化手段,如成立董事会、实施灵活的套餐计划鼓励捐赠等。这表明,宗族不是一个静态的组织,并不封闭、保守,而是具有较强的学习能力与开放性。     

我国财政专项转移支付决策过程分析--以多源流分析为视角

财政转移支付是1994年实行分税制以来平衡中央-地方以及区域间财力不均的制度，我国专项转移支付又始终占据着财政转移支付的重大比重。专项转移支付在确定资金转移地区，资金转移项目以及每个专项拨款多少的标准是如何确定的？这些都取决于专项转移支付的决策过程。文章通过多源流分析视角来探析我国财政专项转移支付的决策过程中存在的问题，了解我国财政专项转移支付的决策过程。     

Authorware7.0在制作刨削加工多媒体课件中的应用

利用Authorware 7.0软件作为制作平台将文字、图片、动画、视频结合起来,开发刨削加工多媒体课件,可为刨削加工课程教学及学生自学提供帮助。     

中原地区民间服饰刺绣的艺术风格研究

通过对中原地区民间刺绣的色彩、造型艺术和工艺技法的深入研究,展现了民间刺绣独特的色彩应用理论,夸张多变的造型和工艺上独到的艺术风格,为民间刺绣的现代应用指明方向。     

AN ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY CHAIN COLLABORATIONS AND THEIR EFFECT ON PERFORMANCE OUTCOMES

This research examined how operational outcomes, relational outcomes and business performance are affected by a collaboration project between buyers and suppliers in a supply chain. It is hypothesized that interdependence of knowledge and process, supply chain partner insight, and the level of collaboration between the firms affect the outcomes of a collaboration project. Survey data from buyers and suppliers from a wide range of industries and organizations were used in this analysis. Among these participants, higher levels of collaboration led to improvements in operational and relational outcomes, which together led to improvements in asset utilization, competitive position, organizational performance, and profitability.