北京市雨水收集利用蓄水池容积计算与分析

基于北京市1984—2013年的日降雨资料,以北京林业大学林业楼及其周边绿地为研究区,设置3种用水情景(冲厕、绿地灌溉及冲厕+绿地灌溉),采用连续模拟法,分别绘制3种用水情景下雨水收集利用工程的雨水截留率、自来水替代率、供水保证率以及效益费用比变化曲线,并通过综合分析这些曲线的变化特征确定雨水蓄水池最佳设计容积(60~82 m3)。同时采用设计暴雨法计算1~5年不同重现期的蓄水池设计容积(77~248 m3)。结果表明,连续模拟法计算过程相对复杂,但可用于综合衡量雨水收集利用工程的雨洪管理效益,以及缓解水资源短缺效益、供水可靠性及经济可行性分析。     

混凝土力学时空特性对衬砌支护设计影响研究

竖井支护设计对围岩稳定和施工安全具有重要意义,水利水电工程中采用正井法开挖引水竖井的工程案例较少。根据正井法施工特点,确定开挖、初衬以及拆模等工序需要的具体时间,考虑混凝土力学参数的时效特征,并结合所在区域的地质条件、岩体力学参数以及开挖进尺,对初衬设计厚度、强度以及拆模时间等进行了研究,形成了一套基于正井法施工,考虑衬砌混凝土力学参数时空特征条件下的衬砌设计方法。实践表明,考虑混凝土力学参数时空特征条件下的支护设计更加合理,具有一定经济和社会效益。     

均匀设计方法在水电站发电调度优化中的应用研究

水电站工程的科学调度是实现水资源优化配置、发挥工程效益的重要方式和有效手段。文章以水丰水电站为例,进行了均匀设计方法在水电站发电优化调度中的应用研究,结果显示该方法与传统优化方法相比具有明显优势,可以用于水电站发电调度优化研究。     

泥石流防治与景观融合性研究——以九寨沟县双柳地泥石流治理设计为例

九寨沟地震后,震区沟域内发生大量崩塌、滑坡灾害,为震后泥石流的发生提供了大量物源,严重威胁震区人民的生命财产安全。为防止九寨沟县漳扎镇双柳地再次爆发泥石流灾害,对其防治设计进行研究。本着防治工程与周边环境有机结合的理念,采取将泥石流防治设计与景观设计融为一体的技术方法。通过圆弧形停淤坝、主坝体两侧桩板围堤、排洪沟墙顶及墙体装饰、排洪沟底部肋坎、绿化等综合防治工程设计,实现对泥石流冲出物的水石分离,使其不具有形成大规模泥石流灾害的可能,既可以满足泥石流的治理目标,又将防治工程与周边环境及当地文化进行有机结合。     

Ex-post full surplus extraction,straightforwardly

Consider an estimate of the common value of an auctioned asset that is symmetric in the bidders’ types. Such an estimate can be represented solely in terms of the order statistics of those types. This representation forms the basis for a pricing rule yielding truthful bidding as an equilibrium, whether bidders’ types are affiliated or independent. We highlight the link between the estimator and full surplus extraction, providing a necessary and sufficient condition for ex-post full surplus extraction, including the possibility of independent types. The results offer sharp insights into the strengths and limits of simple auctions by identifying the source of informational rents in such environments. Harstad acknowledges hospitable accommodation by the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, and the Olin School of Business, Washington University in St. Louis, during parts of this research. We are grateful for comments and suggestions from Richard McLean and Jeroen Swinkels.     

基于生态学思考的小城镇新区规划设计新理念

基于生态学的思考,小城镇新区规划设计应树立五个新理念:深化人本思想、突出文化内涵、注重景观设计、树立超前意识、发扬务实精神。新理念在实践过程中体现在:营造人性化的小城镇新区、塑造地方性的小城镇特色、打造园林式的小城镇景观、构造灵活性的小城镇格局、绘就实用性的小城镇蓝图。     

Societal preferences for fertility treatment in Australia: a stated preference discrete choice experiment

Objective: To investigate preferences for fertility treatment from the Australian general population with the aims of calculating the willingness to pay in tax contribution for attributes (characteristics) that make up treatment and for an “ideal” fertility treatment program. We also assessed whether willingness-to-pay varies by the relationship status or sexual orientation of the patient.

Methods: A stated preference discrete choice experiment was administered to a panel of 801 individuals representative of the Australian general population. Seven attributes of fertility treatment under three broad categories were included: outcome, process, and cost. Attributes were identified through published literature, focus group discussions, expert knowledge, and a pilot study. A Bayesian fractional experimental design was used, and data analysis was performed using a generalized multinomial logit model. Further analyses included interaction terms and latent class modeling.

Results: Six of the seven attributes influenced the choice of a treatment program. Under process attributes, individuals preferred: continuity of care of clinic staff, where patients are seen by the same doctor but different nurses at each visit; “alternative” treatments being offered to all patients; and onsite clinic counseling and peer-support groups. Personalization and tailoring of the treatment journey were not important. Among outcome attributes, the improved success rate of having a baby per cycle and significant side-effects were considered important. Cost of treatment also influenced the choice of treatment program. Individual preferences for fertility treatment were not associated with patients’ relationship status or sexual orientation. Latent class modeling revealed sub-groups with distinct fertility treatment preferences.

Conclusion: This study provides important insights into the attributes that influence the preferences of fertility treatment in Australia. It also estimates socially-inclusive willingness-to-pay values in tax contributions for an “ideal” package of treatment. The results can inform economic evaluations of fertility treatment programs.     

生态农业模式构建与应用——以广饶县为例

本文从农业可持续发展、资源永续利用的原则出发,探讨了构建生态农业模式的原则,以山东省广饶县为例,系统分析了在该县构建和应用生态农业模式的优势条件和制约因素,具体论述了适合广饶县发展的三种生态农业模式:农—牧—沼型、上粮下渔型和草—畜—乳型生态农业模式。     

On exact D-optimal designs with 2 two-level factors and n autocorrelated observations

In this paper we consider the exact D-optimal designs for estimation of the unknown parameters in the two factors, each at only two-level, main effects model with autocorrelated errors. The vector of the n random errors in the observed responses is assumed to follow a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)). The exact D-optimal designs seek the optimal combinations of the design levels as well as the optimal run orders, so that the determinant of the information matrix of BLUEs for the unknown parameters is maximized. Bora-Senta and Moyssiadis (1999) gave some conjectures about the exact D-optimal designs based on their experience of several exhaustive searches. In this paper their conjectures are partially proved to be true.Received: January 2003 / Accepted: October 2003Partially supported by the National Science Council of Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant NSC 91-2115-M-008-013.Supported in part by the National Science Council of Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant NSC 89-2118-M-110-003.