近10年福建省风暴潮灾害特征分析及社会经济影响

本文统计了 2008-2017 年影响福建省的风暴潮过程,分析了风暴潮时空分布规律、风暴潮灾害经济损失现状以及风暴潮灾害特征。结果表明,福建台风风暴潮灾害具有发生频次高、影响范围广、灾害损失重的特点。此外,风暴潮影响期间,季节性高海平面、天文大潮和风暴增水三者叠加会增加风暴潮致灾程度。     

Right censoring in a discrete life model

Although there are many sophisticated models for estimation of failure rate based on censored data in continuous distributions, not much work has been done in the discrete case. We introduce a discrete model for life lengths and consider its properties. For this model, we derive the corresponding maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters under Type I and Type II right-censoring. Received May 2000     

汶川地震对城市公园绿地防灾减灾的启示

通过对汶川地震重灾区成都市市民的走访和问卷调查.从公园绿地的分布、建筑安全和植物种植设计三个方面分析了城市公园绿地在防灾减灾方面的重要功能.并根据调查总结出目前公园绿地在防灾减灾方面的不足之处,提出建立防灾公园的希望以及今后公园绿地建设中应注意的问题.     

Do overseas investments create or replace trade? New insights from a macro-sectoral study on Japan

This paper investigates the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports and imports from Japan, employing an augmented standard gravity model. Several econometric techniques, including the Gamma Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator, are used to rectify possible problems of heteroskedasticity and zero trade flows inherent in the estimation of gravity models of trade. The major finding is that outward FDI is trade enhancing for the Japanese manufacturing industry. However, we find that whether outward FDI creates or replaces trade depends on the industry under scrutiny. Our results indicate that the complementary relationship between FDI and trade is dominant in Japanese manufacturing, especially in the food and beverages, electric machinery, primary metals, and precision machinery sectors. We find also that Japanese overseas investments substitute for imports of chemical products, and for both exports and imports of general machinery.     

Special issue: Environmental risk mitigation for sustainable land use development

The Special Issue (SI) “Environmental Risk Mitigation for Sustainable Land Use Development” presents seventeen interrelated papers addressing the key concept of environmental risk mitigation and sustainable land use development. The issue argues that risk mitigation depends directly on the risk assessment analysis and the quality of applied measures. Therefore, the more precise are risk assessment conclusions, the better the risk mitigation measures would be. This collection of papers follows the vision of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (Sendai Framework) which states that the integration of sustainable development objectives into disaster risk mitigation and adaptation at all levels and at all stages of policy action are of paramount importance for the sustainability of our communities. The final purpose of the issue is to address the mutual roles of land use policy on environmental risk mitigation and adaptation, especially disaster risks.     

基于MaxEnt模型评估赤霞珠在川西横断山河谷的适生空间分布

［目的］川西横断山河谷是我国乃至世界高山酿酒葡萄的新兴产区,赤霞珠是该区域主栽品种之一。复杂的地理条件使得该区域与其他酿酒葡萄主产区的自然环境差异显著。科学评估川西横断山河谷区赤霞珠适宜空间分布,可促进该区域酿酒葡萄可持续发展。［方法］文章综合运用MaxEnt模型和GIS技术,构建了赤霞珠适宜分布与环境变量的关系模型,筛选出主导环境变量,利用存在概率划分适宜等级,预测了赤霞珠在川西横断山河谷的适宜分布。［结果］赤霞珠适宜分布与环境变量的关系模型准确度非常好（AUC>090）。在川西横断山河谷,主导环境变量依次为最热月平均气温、海拔、pH、秋季降雨量、年日照时数、年温差、全氮。川西横断山河谷大部分地区为不适宜区,低适宜区约为2 2752km2,中适宜区约1 29608km2。高适宜区面积为1 16428km2,且集中分布在丹巴县、小金县、金川县、九寨沟县和巴塘县。［结论］MaxEnt模型通过存在概率进行作物分布模拟和预测,对作物适宜区划具有较强应用价值和指导意义。对于不同区域和作物应注意环境变量,空间尺度,物种采样位置等问题,提高作物适宜区划精度。最后应加快该区域生产空间调整,在丹巴县、九寨沟县、金川县、小金县、巴塘县赤霞珠还有很大潜力空间,在黑水县、马尔康市、松潘县、白玉县、德荣县、康定县需适度发展,在汶川县、理县、茂县、稻城县、乡城县,应加强生产管理,减少不利环境影响。仁和区不宜再进行规模扩张。     

Philanthropic disaster relief giving as a response to institutional pressure: Evidence from China

This paper investigates if firms under high institutional pressure donate more to disaster relief than firms under lower institutional pressure. By taking Chinese listed companies' donations to May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake as the sample, this research finds that large firms and firms who have political ties donate a significant more to disaster relief than smaller firms and firms who do not have political ties. But the findings indicate that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) donate no more than non SOEs, and service companies donate significantly less than non-service companies. The results of this research partly support the institutional point of view of corporate philanthropy. Firms under high institutional pressure are more likely to donate more than firms facing lower institutional pressure.     

On the Application of Conditional Independence to Ordinal Data

A special log linear parameterization is described for contingency tables which exploits prior knowledge that an ordinal scale of the variables is involved. It is helpful, in particular, in guiding the possible merging of adjacent levels of variables and may simplify interpretation if higher-order interactions are present. Several sets of data are discussed to illustrate the types of interpretation that can be achieved. The simple structure of the maximum likelihood estimates is derived by use of Lagrange multipliers.     

环境灾害冲击对银行违约率的影响效应研究:理论与实证分析

本文通过模型模拟和基于中国数据的实证检验,分析了环境灾害损失冲击对于银行违约率的影响。本文模型模拟的结果显示,环境灾害冲击会显著提升银行体系的违约率水平,同时伴随着企业融资溢价水平的提升以及整个经济活动的萎缩;实证研究发现:环境灾害损失冲击会导致银行违约率水平显著提升。且与理论分析一致,本文实证发现宏观经济不确定性水平、企业的资本折损以及全要素生产率的下降在环境灾害影响银行违约率的过程中发挥了显著的传导作用。进一步研究发现,环境灾害冲击及其导致的银行违约率上升还会降低银行的风险偏好水平,降低放贷规模和主动风险承担,并反作用于实体企业,提升企业的融资约束和成本。本文的研究结论丰富了基于中国视角的环境物理风险研究,刻画了环境灾害损失对于银行风险的影响及其后续效应,为政策部门防范气候环境风险提供了借鉴。     

Time-dependent lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns

Highlighting the importance of benchmark to identify lottery-like payoffs of stocks, this study proposes that investors’ lottery preference is formed toward tracking stocks’ performance over time. Accordingly, we develop a strategy based on time-dependent maximum daily return (denoted as TMAX) by buying (short selling) stocks with the most recent maximum daily returns (MAX) ranked in the bottom (top) decile of the historical distribution. The TMAX strategy generates significant premium that subsumes the profitability of Bali, Cakici, and Whitelaw’s (2011) MAX strategy, but not vice versa. A major advantage of the TMAX strategy is its time-invariant profitability across different periods and sentiment states. Further analyses show that the TMAX premium can be explained by shorting flow and behavioral theories, supporting the time-dependent feature of lottery preference.