锦屏一级拱坝黏弹性工作性态反演分析

针对锦屏一级拱坝历年1 880 m高水位稳定期坝体向下游侧位移持续增大的异常变形性态,基于现场位移监测数据和坝体混凝土徐变试验数据,对该拱坝当前运行性态进行了反演分析。结果表明:坝体目前处于黏弹性工作状态,监测发现的短期趋势性变形是由水压荷载作用下黏弹性滞后变形效应和年周期环境温降效应所共同引起。混凝土黏弹性力学参数之间具有较好的线性关系,基于弹性水压分量反演得到的坝体混凝土弹性模量实际是瞬时弹性模量与延迟弹性模量的等效值,对于锦屏一级拱坝,该反演值为35.5 GPa,与前期反演值和试验值较为接近;而基于黏弹性水压分量反演得到的广义Kelvin模型中瞬时弹性模量、2延迟弹性模量和2黏滞系数分别为47.3 GPa、189.4 GPa、132.3 GPa、383.8 GPa·d和20 574.6 GPa·d。建议今后对锦屏一级拱坝建立变形监控模型时,应在HST模型中引入黏弹性滞后水压分量。     

Influence of a high‐head dam as a dispersal barrier to fish community structure of the Upper Mississippi River

In river systems, high‐head dams may increase the distance‐decay of fish community similarity by creating nearly impermeable dispersal barriers to certain species from upstream reaches. Substantial evidence suggests that migratory species are impacted by dams, and most previous studies in stream/river networks have focused on small streams and headwaters. Here, we assess whether a high‐head dam (Lock and Dam 19; LD 19) on a large river, the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), substantially alters fish community structure relative to variability expected to occur independent of the dam's effect as a fish dispersal barrier. Using fish catch per unit effort data, we modelled the distance‐decay function for the UMR fish community and then estimated the similarity that would be expected to occur across LD19 and compared it with measured similarity. Measured similarity in the fish community above and below LD19 was close to the expected value based on the distance‐decay function, suggesting LD19 does not create an abrupt transition in the fish community. Although some migratory fish species no longer occur above LD19 (e.g., skipjack herring, Alosa chrysochloris), these species do not occur in high abundance below the dam and so do not drive variation in fish community structure. Instead, much of the variation in species structure is driven by the loss/gain of species across the latitudinal gradient. Lock and Dam 19 does not appear to be a clear transition point in the river's fish community, although it may function as a meaningful barrier for particular species (e.g., invasive species) and warrant future attention from a management perspective.     

Sediment flux from Lesser Zab River in Dokan Reservoir: Implications for the sustainability of long‐term water resources in Iraq

Prudent management of Iraqi water resources under climate change conditions requires plans to be based on actual figures of the storage capacity of existing reservoirs. With the absence of sediment flushing measures, the actual storage capacity of Dokan Reservoir (operated since 1959) has been affected by the amount of sediment delivered during its operational life leading to an undetermined reduction in its storage capacity. In consequence, there has not been an update on the dam's operational storage capacity curves. In this research, new operational curves were established for the reservoir based on a recent bathymetric survey undertaken in 2014. The reduction in reservoir capacity during the period between 1959 and 2014 was calculated by the mean of the difference between the designed storage capacity and the storage capacity which was concluded from the 2014 bathymetric survey. Moreover, the rate of sediment transported to the reservoir was calculated based on the overall quantities of accumulated sediment and the water discharge of the Lesser Zab River into the reservoir. The results indicate that the dam capacity is reduced by 25% due to sedimentation of an estimated volume of 367 million cubic metres at water level 480 m.a.s.l. The annual sedimentation rate was about 6.6 million cubic metres, and the sediment yield was estimated to be 701.2 t?km^?3?year.     

基于应力-渗流-损伤耦合模型的重力坝三维水力劈裂数值模拟

裂缝的高压水力劈裂是混凝土高坝安全评估的重要部分。目前,重力坝水力劈裂的数值模拟绝大多数是二维的,对于坝体上游面经常出现的竖直裂缝的三维水力劈裂的数值研究几乎为零。本文提出一种应力-渗流-损伤耦合模型,用于混凝土重力坝三维水力劈裂的模拟。采用该耦合模型,模拟了一个内置裂缝的圆柱体试件的水力劈裂,数值结果与试验结果吻合很好,验证了所提耦合模型的合理性。在此基础上,采用该耦合模型,进行了国内某混凝土重力坝三维水力劈裂的模拟,数值模拟得到的损伤区域与设计院根据安全监测实测结果得到的范围基本吻合。研究结果表明:本文耦合模型可以方便、有效地进行重力坝三维水力劈裂的模拟,评估表面裂缝的危险程度。     

国家自然科学基金项目（51769017、51969018）

针对现有碾压混凝土坝温度场预警多是基于单个测点进行分析这一不足,提出了利用多测点综合信息预警的模式和方法。采用概率原理对温度监测值的有序度和无序度进行了定义,基于投影追踪法,确定了各测点的权重分布;根据温度场有序到无序的演变规律,结合有序度和测点权重分布,构建了能描述碾压混凝土坝温度场有序性的权重熵;借助典型小概率原理,提出了碾压混凝土坝温度场预警准则。实例分析表明：权重熵的变化规律与温度实测值变化规律相吻合,从而验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects

We argue that the proper specification of a panel gravity model should include main (exporter, importer, and time) as well as time invariant exporter-by-importer (bilateral) interaction effects. In a panel of 11 APEC countries, the latter are highly significant and account for the largest part of variation. First version received: February 2001/Final version received: June 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  We are grateful to two anonymous referees and Robert Kunst for their helpful comments.     

Je t'aime, moi non plus: Bilateral opinions and international trade

This paper studies the relationship between bilateral trade patterns and opinions. It uses the Eurobarometer public opinion surveys published by the European Commission, which provide data on the share of the population in each EU15 member country in favour of each CEEC joining the EU. Our results first suggest that bilateral opinions have a statistically robust and relatively large effect on imports, even when standard and new covariates capturing proximity between countries are controlled for. We interpret this effect as reflecting a positive impact of “bilateral affinity” on trade patterns. We also show that it is possible to go some way towards explaining the variance in bilateral opinions among our sample. Last we provide some preliminary attempt to determine causality between bilateral opinions and imports.     

三峡枢纽排漂孔及泄洪孔过流面检修装备方案研究

针对三峡工程排漂孔及泄洪孔过流面墙壁的检修分别提出了多种专用检修装备方案。经过分析比较,得出安全合理的检修装备方案。排漂孔检修方案:闸室段侧墙用升降台车,斜坡段侧墙采用单梁吊篮,排漂孔底板采用双侧单台车;泄洪深孔检修方案:闸室段和斜坡段侧墙采用升降台车检修,底面与排漂孔检修方案相同。     

立洲RCC拱坝蓄水过程应力变形特性分析

基于立洲RCC拱坝温度场全过程仿真分析成果,考虑施工期残余应力,分析大坝蓄水过程中在温度荷载、水荷载、渗透压力和自重作用下坝体应力变形特性及发展规律,探寻真实工作状态下与设计荷载作用下大坝应力特性差异,并结合类似工程蓄水监测成果对立洲大坝的蓄水安全情况进行分析和评价。分析结果表明,大坝实际应力、变形性态与传统算法结果相比差异显著,大坝在蓄水过程中处于弹性范围内,工作状态正常。     

金安桥水电站大坝抗震分析和抗震措施设计

金安桥水电站大坝地震设防烈度高达9度,基岩场地设计水平动峰值加速度为0.399 g,大坝抗震分析和抗震措施设计是工程关键性技术问题之一。采用数值计算法和模型试验法对碾压混凝土大坝进行了全面的动力分析,确定了大坝的抗震薄弱部位,为金安桥水电站大坝设计提供了保证。