Price rigidities and institutional variations in markets with posted prices

Summary Standard laboratory posted-offer markets respond slowly and incompletely to demand shocks. In these one-sided markets, where sellers control the setting of prices, very little information is transmitted via the process of exchange. For this reason, traders have trouble distinguishing randomness in their own experience from changes in market fundamentals. This paper reports the results of twelve laboratory markets conducted to assess whether some common variants to standard posted-offer rules can correct the adjustment deficiences. Although discounting, multiple postings and excess demand information all improve performance, we find that response remains poor, and efficiencies low.Support for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation (SBR 9319842 and SBR 9320044), and the University of Virginia Bankard Fund. Data are archived at FTP address: fido.econlab.arizona.edu. We wish to thank Charles Plott and Shyam Sunder for useful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Does individualization help productivity of transition agriculture?

There are large differences across transition countries with respect to agricultural‐sector performance and corresponding scope of farm restructuring and shift to individual farming. In this article we analyze the impact of individualization on productivity growth within an augmented neoclassical growth model framework. This approach allows us to circumvent criticisms on the grounds of lack of theoretical and objective criteria for inclusion of explanatory variables. Furthermore, in the empirical analysis using a panel data covering 15 transition countries over the period 1990–2001 and applying a generalized method of moments with instrumental variable estimator we are able to control for the impact of various factors and the potential endogeneity of variables. Our estimation results are robust and support the view that the shift to individual farming, as well as the overall economic reforms, has positively contributed to the productivity growth in agriculture during the first decade of transition.     

有机磷灭蚊剂投放浓度和时间对水体总磷的影响

为分析新型低毒有机磷杀虫剂“1%双硫磷颗粒”投放对河道水质的影响,设置不同药剂投放浓度和不同反应时间的室内试验,以TP、NH₃-N及S^2-为目标因子,分析该药剂投放后水体污染物浓度。结果表明:不同试验组水样中S^2-质量浓度均小于0.02 mg/L,NH₃-N质量浓度处于0.029~0.036 mg/L之间,均达到地表水Ⅰ类标准;不同浓度药剂投放1 h后,水体TP质量浓度已达到稳定状态,且在60 h内均保持稳定,药剂投加量与水体TP质量浓度呈显著正相关(R²=0.85);不同处理组的药剂在水体中的TP释放量无明显差异,均在1.06~1.30 mg/g之间。“1%双硫磷颗粒”推荐适宜投放量不会使河道水质恶化到劣Ⅴ类,但增加药剂投放量会增加水体TP污染及富营养化风险。     

Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

Income distribution and inequality measurement: The problem of extreme values

We examine the statistical performance of inequality indices in the presence of extreme values in the data and show that these indices are very sensitive to the properties of the income distribution. Estimation and inference can be dramatically affected, especially when the tail of the income distribution is heavy, even when standard bootstrap methods are employed. However, use of appropriate semiparametric methods for modelling the upper tail can greatly improve the performance of even those inequality indices that are normally considered particularly sensitive to extreme values.     

Product attributes and models of multiple discreteness

Demand for product characteristics is examined within the context of models that allow for both corner and interior solutions corresponding to zero and non-zero demand. Product attribute information is associated with marginal utility and curvature (satiation) parameters of various utility functions. Empirical applications demonstrate the need for incorporating characteristics in a fairly general way. We also compare our approach to an ideal point and pure Lancasterian versions of our nonlinear utility model. The data support our model over either the ideal point or Lancasterian variants.     

水利工程施工应急能力G1-灰色评价方法研究

为有效加强水利工程应急能力建设,采用G1-灰色综合评价法对水利工程应急能力进行了综合评价研究。在水利工程施工特点和应急管理研究基础上,建立应急能力评价指标体系。通过采用G1法分析各应急能力评价指标相互关系,确定了指标权重。引入灰色理论将样本信息处理成灰色评价矩阵,并结合指标权重进行单值化处理得到应急能力综合评价值和评价等级。研究结果表明,搜救抢险能力、应急资源调配能力和应急决策指挥能力对于水利工程应急能力建设起到最主要的作用。该评价方法不仅可揭示指标重要程度关系,还能有效量化和评价水利工程项目综合应急水平,具有较好的实用性。     

基于GF_1卫星的丹江口水库水面面积-蓄水量-水位相关性研究

基于GF_1卫星16m分辨率多光谱遥感数据及水文观测数据,通过计算NDWI水体指数来提取丹江口水库水面面积,并研究水面面积、水位与蓄水量三者之间的相关性,实现动态分析水库蓄水量变化情况,以期为"南水北调"提供决策支撑。研究发现:(1)南水北调中线首个调度年前后丹江口水库水面面积-水位,水位-蓄水量以及水面面积-蓄水量之间均为显著相关关系,且三对变量依次呈现明显的1次、2次、3次曲线关系,拟合曲线方程的决定系数分别达到0.976、0.999和0.980,因此可以根据其中一个已知变量预测其他两个未知量;(2)水面面积自2014年10月5日至2016年5月5日最大变化幅度相差180km~2,是影响周边环境变化的重要因素;(3)同时蓄水量在首个调度年内,于2014年11月初达到最大值204.10亿m~3,可调水量在16.53~78.93亿m~3范围内浮动,且年内整体变化平缓稳定,保证了2015调度年内南水北调中线工程的供水需求。     

应用一步流动法快速测定土水特征曲线试验研究

实验室常用压力板仪进行常规试验测定粉土土水特征曲线（SWCC）,需耗费数月时间,效率不高。对快速测定粉土SWCC进行了试验研究：采用压力板仪对粉土试样开展一步流动法试验;同时,用Hydrus-1D建立一维水分运移模型;结合模型对干密度为1.78 g/cm3粉土试样中溢出水量随加压时间的关系曲线进行拟合,并得出VG模型中难以实测的参数α和n;根据参数反算出粉土试样SWCC并和压力板仪常规试验的SWCC进行对比。为了消除试验中加载压力过大可能造成的固结对试验结果的影响,还对干密度为1.65 g/cm3的粉土试样进行固结试验使其干密度增大为1.78 g/cm3,再对固结后粉土试样分别进行常规试验和一步流动法试验。对由两种试验得到的固结粉土的SWCC与初始干密度1.78 g/cm3粉土由两种试验实测的SWCC进行了比较。结果表明：① 一步流动法试验拟合的SWCC与常规试验实测的SWCC重合度高;② 一步流动法试验具有快速性和有效性;③ 由Hydrus-1D建立的一维水分运移模型得出的SWCC与常规试验实测的SWCC接近;④ 一步流动法试验结果不会受到固结的影响。     

基于SLIC的哨兵1号雷达数据水体信息提取

针对水域面积较少时水体信息提取困难的问题,提出了以Sentinel-1A SAR为数据源,用简化的SLIC超像素分割算法对图像进行分割,根据相似度将分割后图像进行分层区域合并,将图像二值化得到最终水体信息的方法。将提取的信息与Otsu阈值法提取的水体信息进行对比分析,结果表明：水体提取算法相比Otsu阈值法有效提升了水体信息提取的效率和精度,对于防汛减灾具有重要的科学价值。将提出的方法应用于2019年7月份的株洲洪水监测,取得了较好的效果。