挡水建筑物高度和抗滑稳定关系的数学表达式

导出了挡水建筑物高度和抗滑稳定安全系数之间的数学关系式。这是一个通用公式,适用于重力坝、拱坝、重力式进水口、挡土墙、船坞等挡水建筑物的抗滑稳定分析,估算满足抗滑稳定要求的挡水建筑物高度和要求的滑移面摩擦系数及粘结力。     

改进灰色模型在水量预测中的应用

灰色模型对生活用水量进行预测本身具有一定的局限,数据离散程度越大,灰度也愈大,其预测精度也越差.文中采用滑动平均法对灰色预测的原始数据进行了改进,并采取残差修正,避免了数值过度波动.通过预测实例,结果表明改进后的灰色预测模型能有效提高预测精度.     

财政助推地方经济高质量发展探索与实践—— 来自广东省的经验数据

通过梳理,分析广东省培育“新财源”、优化财政支出结构、促进财政公平、提升财政效率、防范财政风险的具体措施后,认为财政收入、支出和运行体制改革是辩证统一的,是公平、效率和防风险的兼顾,最终目的是更好地为经济发展提质增效。因此,改革应以创新和绿色发展为导向,构建政府与企业的“利益共同体”和“命运共同体”,以保障地方经济高质量发展。     

Betting against beta with intraday and overnight signals

The abnormal returns of the Betting Against Beta (BAB) strategy have attracted much interest among researchers and practitioners. Based on a market anomaly related to the Capital Asset Pricing Model, this strategy uses daily beta as a signal for portfolio construction. However, recent literature shows how some financial quantities, including beta, change between trading and non-trading periods. For this reason, we decided to compare the performance of the original BAB strategy with two BAB variants, where the signal for portfolio construction is given by intraday and overnight beta, respectively. Despite all strategies exhibiting positive cumulative returns, using the intraday beta signal leads to significantly higher performances. Further analyses show that the abnormal intraday BAB returns are mainly due to nano and micro-cap stocks which tend to outperform large-cap stocks, as well known from the literature.     

不同滑移模式的重力坝失稳机理及安全度评价方法

结构面对坝体抗滑稳定极为不利,尤其是坝基内存在多组结构面,其深度、范围、厚度等因素均对坝体稳定具有较大影响。本文通过弹塑性有限元强度储备系数法,应用各向异性节理材料模拟岩层、泥化夹层、断层等对重力坝坝基抗滑稳定的影响,针对强度储备系数法缺乏标准的问题做出了一定的探讨,根据两个典型工程实例分析了建在不同结构面上的重力坝深层滑动的失稳机理、破坏模式及极限承载力等。研究分析表明对于不同滑移模式的重力坝失稳机理均表现为首先沿结构面滑动,直至尾岩抗立体压碎或者隆起失效时坝体达到其极限承载力。最后根据重力坝深层滑动失稳机理及其破坏模式,提出了与其配套的安全度评价方法。     

Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis

This study compares a central bank’s leaning against the wind approach with a mix of monetary and macroprudential policies under parameter uncertainty in an estimated DSGE model with two financial frictions. We show that uncertainty of the economic environment is an essential constituent in properly designing macroprudential policy. Although coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies minimizes the policymakers’ Bayesian risk, coordination and non-coordination risks threaten the goals of both authorities. The former describes the situation where the authorities partly resign from implementing the monetary policy objectives to stabilize macroprudential risk. The latter is when conducting a non-coordinated macroprudential policy induces higher total Bayesian risk than when only the central bank minimizes the expected total welfare loss. The robust Bayesian macroeconomic rules show that when financial shocks shrink the banks’ or entrepreneurial net worth, a contractionary macroprudential policy should be combined with an expansionary monetary policy. However, if capital adequacy ratio or risk shocks strike the economy, such a conflict in macroeconomics policy instruments disappears, thus synchronizing both policies.     

Drought and social conflict in rural Zimbabwe: Does the burden fall on women and girls?

Climate change–induced extreme weather events such as drought have occurred with increasing frequency and intensity in Zimbabwe over the past 30 years bringing about pressure on communally owned water resources. Using the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee 2020 survey of rural households in Zimbabwe, this study assesses the impact of drought shock on the occurrence of water point violence. The impact of self-reported drought shock on the likelihood of occurrence of social conflict in the form of water point violence is subject to confounding due to selection bias. Using the doubly robust inverse probability weighted regression adjustment to account for confounding, we investigate gender dimensions of the impact of drought on inducing water point violence in rural Zimbabwe. The study offers three major findings. First, drought shock is associated with increased household propensity to experience water point violence. Second, the severity of the drought shock impact increases the probability of the household experiencing water point violence. Third, drought shock–induced water point violence is only statistically valid for households where the water-fetcher is a woman or girl. The results suggest that the impact of drought shocks on water point violence is gendered and disadvantages women and girls more than men and boys.