Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability and Agricultural Water Demand in the West Bank

Global climate change is predicted as a result of increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. It is predicted that climate change will result in increasing temperature by 2 to 6°C and a possible reduction of precipitation of up to 16% in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, the West Bank is taken as a case study from the Mediterranean basin to evaluate the effects of such climate change on water resources availability and agricultural water demands. Due to the uncertainty in climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation, a number of scenarios for these impacts were assumed within the range of predicted changes. For temperature, three scenarios of 2, 4 and 6°C increase were assumed. For precipitation, two scenarios of no change and 16% precipitation reduction were assumed. Based on these scenarios, monthly evapotranspiration and monthly precipitation excess depths were estimated at seven weather stations distributed over the different climatic and geographical areas of the West Bank. GIS spatial analyses showed that the increase in temperature predicted by climate change could potentially increase agricultural water demands by up to 17% and could also result in reducing annual groundwater recharge by up to 21% of existing values. However, the effects of reduced precipitation resulting from climate change are more enormous as a 16% reduction in precipitation could result in reducing annual groundwater recharge in the West Bank by about 30% of existing value. When this effect is combined with a 6°C increase in temperature, the reduction in groundwater recharge could reach 50%.     

Enhancing Inflow Forecasting Model at Aswan High Dam Utilizing Radial Basis Neural Network and Upstream Monitoring Stations Measurements

The Nile River is considered the main life artery for so many African countries especially Egypt. Therefore, it is of the essence to preserve its water and utilize it very efficiently. Developing inflow-forecasting model is considered the technical way to effectively achieve such preservation. The hydrological system of the Nile River under consideration has several dams and barrages that are equipped with control gates. The improvement of these hydraulic structures’ criteria for operation can be assessed if reliable forecasts of inflows to the reservoir are available. Recently, the authors developed a forecasting model for the natural inflow at Aswan High Dam (AHD) based on Artificial Intelligence (AI). This model was developed based on the historical inflow data of the AHD and successfully provided accurate inflow forecasts with error less than 10%. However, having several forecasting models based on different types of data increase the level of confidences of the water resources planners and AHD operators. In this study, two forecasting model approach based on Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) method for the natural inflow at AHD utilizing the stream flow data of the monitoring stations upstream the AHD is developed. Natural inflow data collected over the last 30 years at four monitoring stations upstream AHD were used to develop the model and examine its performance. Inclusive data analysis through examining cross-correlation sequences, water traveling time, and physical characteristics of the stream flow data have been developed to help reach the most suitable RBFNN model architecture. The Forecasting Error (FE) value of the error and the distribution of the error are the two statistical performance indices used to evaluate the model accuracy. In addition, comprehensive comparison analysis is carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed model over those recently developed for forecasting the inflow at AHD. The results of the current study showed that the proposed model improved the forecasting accuracy by 50% for the low inflow season, while keep the forecasting accuracy in the same range for the high inflow season.     

泥沙沉降过程与密度变化关系实验研究

 为研究水库泥沙淤积与泥沙密度之间的变化关系,采用丹江口水库不同库段、不同粒径的泥沙,进行了不同管径、不同深度和分别加沙的沉降实验,发现了一些特殊的现象。并对这些实验数据和丹江口水库的实测资料,进行了分析。研究结果说明泥沙沉降快慢与泥沙表层水深无关,而泥沙的密度是随泥沙沉降快慢而变的。     

丰满水库人类活动影响研究与洪水预报实践

丰满水库流域水利工程众多,人类活动对水库来水影响巨大。由于人类活动对流域产、汇流条件的改变,原水文预报模型精度下降,不利于流域正常水文预报工作的开展,严重影响了流域内水库防洪与兴利效益的发挥。为此,进行人类活动影响调查与研究,为考虑人类活动影响的洪水预报、水库运行调度工作打下基础。     

渭河流域综合用水水平的最优化分类研究

针对流域综合用水水平进行最优分类的问题,提出了一种利用多元统计分析的F-统计量和变化的显著性水平的新方法,用其进行最优化分类的研究,构造了一种寻求最优分类的方法来寻求最优阈值。以渭河流域陕西段为例,采用该地区2003年~2005年资料,进行流域综合用水水平的最优分类研究,结果表明：该流域的综合用水水平可分为4种不同的类型,符合当地的实际用水情况,可为管理部门制定合理规划提供一定的依据。     

水量水质联合配置方案评价指标体系研究

在阐述水量水质联合配置方案评价内涵基础上,给出了水量水质联合配置方案评价操作流程。利用层次分析法构建以经济社会、生态环境、水资源系统为评价准则,以流域缺水率、新增投资额、水功能区个数达标率、生态用水比例、人均水资源量、水资源开发利用程度和万元GDP耗水量为具体指标的方案评价体系。以分区协调性指标和方案公平性指标为核心,在合理确定指标权重的基础上,选取浑太河流域进行评价体系的可行性验证,结果表明,构建的水量水质联合配置方案评价指标体系切实可行。     

岜蒙水库4~#副坝防渗处理设计与现场优化管理

介绍岜蒙水库4#副坝渗漏情况,分析了渗漏原因,提出了针对坝体、坝基、坝肩采取不同防渗加固型式。通过现场施工利用先导孔进一步查清地质情况,及时调整优化设计方案,达到良好防渗效果。     

南山水库面板堆石坝混凝土面板防裂技术

通过介绍南山水库面板堆石坝混凝土面板的防裂技术和在施工过程中采取昀一系列防裂措施,取得了南山水库面板混凝土在施工期无裂缝的良好成绩,为同类堆石坝面板混凝土防裂积累和提供了新的施工经验。     

IMPLEMENTING ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS IN COMPLEX WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS – CASE STUDY: THE DUERO RIVER BASIN,SPAIN

European river basin authorities are responsible for the implementation of the new river basin management plans in accordance with the European Water Framework Directive. This paper presents a new methodology framework and approach to define and evaluate environmental flow regimes in the realistic complexities that exist with multiple water resource needs at a basin scale. This approach links river basin simulation models and habitat time series analysis to generate ranges of environmental flows (e‐flows), which are evaluated by using habitat, hydropower production and reliability of water supply criteria to produce best possible alternatives. With the use of these tools, the effects of the proposed e‐flows have been assessed to help in the consultation process. The possible effects analysed are impacts on water supply reliability, hydropower production and aquatic habitat. After public agreements, a heuristic optimization process was applied to maximize e‐flows and habitat indicators, while maintaining a legal level of reliability for water resource demands. The final optimal e‐flows were considered for the river basin management plans of the Duero river basin. This paper demonstrates the importance of considering quantitative hydrologic and ecological aspects of e‐flows at the basin scale in addressing complex water resource systems. This approach merges standard methods such as physical habitat simulations and time series analyses for evaluating alternatives, with recent methods to simulate and optimize water management alternatives in river networks. It can be integrated with or used to complement other frameworks for e‐flow assessments such as the In‐stream Flow Incremental Methodology and Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.