汾河水库上游河流水环境风险评价

研究以满足太原市集中饮用水源地水质要求为前提,采用河流一维水质模型,模拟和定量评价了汾河水库上游突发性水环境污染事故风险。具体包括：识别污染事故风险危害,表征水环境危害大小,估算事故危害区范围以及危害期长短;最终定量评价了汾河上游水环境风险,为制定汾河上游水环境风险防范与控制对策提供了技术依据。     

输电线路风偏故障分析及应对措施

通过对输电线路运行情况进行全面的调研分析,风偏故障是造成输电线路跳闸的一个主要因素。结合一些输电线路跳闸统计情况,从风偏机理、天气、地理环境、线路本体设计等方面综合分析了风偏故障的成因,进一步分析了风偏防治措施。在全面借鉴行业先进经验的基础上,依据风偏防治的原则和规范,给出了相应的风偏故障防范措施;并结合相关的电网事故案例,对输电线路风偏防治的现行状况提出了进一步的整改措施,从设计、施工、运维方面提出风偏反措建议。     

突发重金属水污染事故环境风险评价模型研究

为降低我国重金属突发水污染事故发生频率、减轻事故危害,针对目前突发水污染事故环境风险评价缺乏系统性研究的现状,构建了基于蒙特卡洛模拟法的突发水污染事故环境风险评价模型,提出了一套计算突发水污染事故环境风险的方法。该模型由突发水污染事故概率分析模型、重金属迁移转化分相模型、突发水污染事故损失评估模型耦合而成。应用该模型对佛山市的环境风险进行了评价,结果表明:计算时间段为固定值时,重大风险值和特大风险值之和为8%;计算时间段为区间值时,重大风险值和特大风险值之和为21%,说明该地区的环境风险已经十分严峻。     

金沙江乌东德水库诱发地震统计预测研究

为了研究乌东德水库诱发地震的可能性,在选用国内外377座已建水库统计资料的基础上,对乌东德水库诱发地震进行预测分析。针对具体地质条件,共选出了10个影响因子,并将影响因子细化为3种不同状态,在此基础上建立了水库诱发地震预测统计模型。模型将诱震的10个概率因子表述为几个相应的地理位置可以完全叠加的矢量图层,然后进行GIS图层计算,实现了水库诱发地震的统计预测。研究结果表明,乌东德水库具备诱发地震的可能性。     

设计洪水估计值的抽样误差分析与应用

在设计洪水估计值的抽样误差分析中,采用B值诺模图方法估计均方误差简单易用。文章对在水电工程中经常采用的P-Ⅲ型经验适线法估计的设计洪水成果如何借助优化适线法参数来估算设计洪水值的抽样误差进行了分析说明。不同的优化适线法会得到不同的诺模系数B,估算设计洪水估计值的抽样误差时,选用某一准则的优化适线要使用相应的诺模系数B值。并分别对实测洪水的连序系列及含历史洪水的不连序系列资料进行了应用分析。     

Measuring abnormal daily trading volume for samples of NYSE/ASE and NASDAQ securities using parametric and nonparametric test statistics

We extend prior research on the empirical properties of daily trading volume and methods to detect abnormal trading volume in two ways. We compare the performance of a nonparametric test statistic with the parametric test statistic used in prior research and we study samples of NASDAQ securities as well as samples of NYSE/ASE securities. Prior research has focused exclusively on NYSE securities. We find the nonparametric test statistic is more powerful in detecting abnormal trading volume than the parametric test statistic in both samples of NYSE/ASE and NASDAQ securities. We also document that abnormal trading volume will be detected more often in samples of NYSE/ASE securities compared to NASDAQ securities.     

论统计过程控制的实施

为提高中国石油天然气集团公司产品、工程和服务质量总体水平。提高企业经济效益，全面推进具有国际竞争力的跨国企业集团建设，中国石油天然气集团公司决定在各企业推广应用统计过程控制技术。通过控制图的具体实施．由推行小组对控制图的实施成果进行评估，并根据评估结果进行有针对性的改善。     

Multivariate statistics in industrial marketing management: A practitioner tool kit

Much published work over the years has pointed to the differences between business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) marketing. An undesirable by-product of this sometimes misdirected distinction is that managers working within B2B environments have generally not considered the use of what are seen as B2C techniques, such as multivariate statistical analysis. This article is structured in three parts. First, the argument for the similarities between B2B and B2C marketing is developed; second, three different multivariate statistical techniques are presented and combined to form a practical tool kit for use by B2B managers on strategic, operational, and tactical levels; and third, the results of an application of the techniques in the life science research chemicals industry is reported, demonstrating that the tool kit substantially enhanced managerial understanding of customer decision processes.     

The rise of defensive engineering: how personal liability considerations impact decision-making

Abstract

Based on a survey of Australian engineers (n = 275) this paper examines the impact of personal liability considerations on engineering decision-making. Almost all respondents who make high-stakes decisions saw questions of liability as having both positive (90%) and negative (87%) impacts. Our analysis shows that awareness of personal liability acts to focus the attention of many engineers on the moral dimension of their work. However, it also encourages more expensive decision-making, inhibition of innovation and professional paralysis. We argue that while personal legal liability is a legitimate way to focus engineers’ attention on the potential impact of their work, a problem arises when decision-makers are held responsible for disasters over which they had little control. The focus then shifts to ‘defensive engineering’ practices that are aimed at limiting individual liability rather than disaster prevention. Legal processes that are seen to unfairly allocate blame do not encourage practices that support future disaster prevention.     

A Tutorial on Palm Distributions for Spatial Point Processes

This tutorial provides an introduction to Palm distributions for spatial point processes. Initially, in the context of finite point processes, we give an explicit definition of Palm distributions in terms of their density functions. Then we review Palm distributions in the general case. Finally, we discuss some examples of Palm distributions for specific models and some applications.