岱海湖温排水对湖面附加蒸发量影响研究

岱海湖为一内陆封闭型湖泊。本研究利用3、7、12月份冬夏工况,综合考虑岱海湖边界条件,水面温度、密度、水面天然温度、大气温度、相对湿度等影响因子,构建温排水对岱海湖附加蒸发量影响的计算公式。经计算,电厂温排水引起的岱海湖附加蒸发损失量为:3月份为39.46万m3,7月份为73.3万m3,12月份为10.6万m3,岱海湖电厂温排水年附加蒸发水量约为678.2万m3/a。结果表明:附加蒸发量与电厂温排水量变化一致。本研究对干旱区水资源利用具有重要意义。     

基于人工神经网络的企业生产预警管理系统研究

企业生产预警管理是生产企业现代管理的一种新模式,它通过监测指标,对企业外部环境变化和生产管理活动进行综合评价,判断企业生产管理所处状态,并采取相应的预先控制对策,使企业生产管理活动始终处于“安全、有效”的管理模式。人工神经网络是广泛应用于众多学科的非线性模拟技术,文章将人工神经网络技术应用到企业生产预警管理中,根据影响生产管理的指标和分类标准随机生成有效的样本数据以建立人工神经网络模型。结果表明样本生成方法和应用人工神经网络技术进行企业生产预警管理评估的方法是合理并可行的。     

An effective going concern prediction model for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development

The purpose of this study is to construct a two-stage effective and innovative going concern prediction model to predict going concern doubt for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development. Samples of this study are the companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange or the Taipei Exchange, totalling 196 companies and including 49 companies with going concern doubt and 147 normal companies (with no going concern doubt). The data are taken from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) and the Market Observation Post System during the period from 2001 to 2016 (totalling 16 years). This study adopts a two-stage way to construct the going concern prediction models. In Stage I, the traditional statistical method of stepwise regression (SR) and the data mining technique artificial neural network (ANN) are applied to select the important variables. In Stage II, two decision tree algorithms (data mining techniques): classification and regression tree (CART) and C5.0 are used to establish the prediction models. The results show that the SR + CART model has the highest going concern prediction accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 87.42%.     

打造湖泊休闲品牌,促进千岛湖旅游可持续发展

湖泊是发展旅游的重要资源,湖泊旅游是旅游业的重要组成部分①。近年来,千岛湖旅游实现了观光游与休闲游的有机结合,重点培育休闲度假游,提升景区的品位。根据淳安县政府提出的打造“休闲度假胜地”、“世界湖泊休闲品牌”的重大决策,结合世界湖泊旅游的未来发展趋势开展调研,提出了世界湖泊休闲品牌打造对促进千岛湖旅游可持续发展有着重大的现实意义。     

地区综合实力的ANN分析

人工神经网络通过神经元之间的相互作用来完成整个网络的信息处理，具有自学习和自适应等一系列优点，因而用它来评价地区综合实力是可行的。针对地区综合实力评价问题，建立了基于神经网络的评价系统，给出了应用实例。     

河湖普查山地河流平均比降校核方法的探讨

2010—2012年第一次全国水利普查是新中国成立以来第一次全面的水利调查。普查共分8个专项,其中河湖普查开展最早,河湖普查是国务院第一次全国水利普查的主要任务,也是其他水利专项普查的基础。流域水系自然特征校核是河湖特征一项重要的工作,其中对于国普办提取的河流平均比降数据进行校核是一项重要的工作。     

Seasonal Effects of Hydropeaking on Growth,Energetics and Movement of Juvenile Atlantic Salmon (Salmo Salar)

The performance and movements of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar exposed to variable water discharge (simulating hydropeaking) but with a stable water‐covered area were studied in six experimental stream channels, both during the winter and summer. Thirty fish were stocked into each channel, and the growth, body fat and movements of the fish were followed for about 2.5 months in each season. During the winter, no effect of hydropeaking was documented on performance or movement. In the summer, fish experiencing hydropeaking had lower body mass, lower body fat, and higher movement rates than the control fish. In general, effect sizes were small, and the rapid and frequent changes in water discharge and water level in the present study had small effects on the performance of juvenile Atlantic salmon. The cumulative long‐term effect at the population level is unknown, but a reduced growth rate of 10% and a reduction in body fat of 16% in the hydropeaking experiments in the summer might to some extent translate into increased smolt age and lower overwintering survival. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Life under ice in the perennial ice‐covered Lake Glubokoe in Summer (East Antarctica)

This study focuses on hydrological and biotic variables in Lake Glubokoe, which is located in Thala Hills of Enderby Land (East Antarctica). Water and sediment samples and physical measurements were collected once a week in the austral summer (19 December 2010 – 6 February 2011). This lake exhibits perennial ice cover that reached a thickness of 2.5–2.7 m during the study period. A very low concentration of planktonic chlorophyll‐a (0.06–0.45 μg L^?1) was measured in the lake, indicating its ultra‐oligotrophic status. The water was poorly populated by algae and metazoans, especially in upper waters below ice cover to a depth of 2 m. Small planktonic organisms (2–5 μm) were observed throughout the study period, but larger organisms (>8 μm) such as the cyanobacteria Planktolyngbya limnetica occurred only during the warmest period (January). Only few individuals of metazoans (rotifers) were found in planktonic samples. Due to deep light penetration (10–15% of incoming active solar radiation reached the depth of 30 m), thick cyanobacterial mats (30 cm) cover all the bottom surface (grey silts) in the lake. Abundant benthic biota associated with these mats was found (up to 1000 ind. m^?2). Among the benthic metazoans, bdelloid rotifers and tardigrades were the dominating taxa. The results of this study suggest a typical ecological feature of most subglacial lakes in East Antarctica is that metazoans are very poor in the pelagic zone, preferring instead to occupy an area near the lake bottom because of a favourable constant temperature of 4 °C, good level of dissolved oxygen and available food resources as the bacterial detritus.     

碟形湖在鄱阳湖湿地生态系统的作用和意义

"碟形湖"是指鄱阳湖湖盆区内枯水季节显露于洲滩之中的季节性子湖泊,具有特殊的地貌特征和水文特性、复杂多变的湿地景观和丰富的生物多样性等特征.在碟形湖及其周边,湿生与水生植物群落有序分布、季节性演替;静水水域有利于底栖动物和鱼类生长育肥;缓慢下降的水位、逐渐伸展的泥滩为越冬候鸟持续提供丰富的食物和歇息环境,全湖80%以上的水鸟在碟形湖区域越冬.高低不一、分布广泛的碟形湖群有效地缓解了干旱、洪水灾害对鄱阳湖湿地生态系统的冲击,对于维护全球生态系统的完整性和生物多样性具有重要作用.最后提出了加强碟形湖保护和管理的对策.     

不同横断面泄流槽的地震堰塞湖溃决实验研究

堰塞湖的溃决问题是研究堰塞湖的核心内容之一,也是堰塞湖进行排险和处置的重要依据.本文以唐家山堰塞湖为原型,设计室内1∶250的近似模型实验,完成了堰塞湖自然溃决实验、梯形槽堰塞湖溃决实验、三角形槽堰塞湖溃决实验和复式槽堰塞湖溃决实验,通过对溃决过程中堰塞坝内部土体体积含水量变化特征、泄流槽侵蚀特征和溃决流量过程的分析,获得以下认识:(1)溃决初期以下切侵蚀为主、后期以侧蚀为主;溯源侵蚀方面,自然溃决表现最强烈,人工辅助溃决实验中溯源侵蚀由强到弱依次为:复式槽、三角形槽、梯形槽;(2)人工辅助溃决在一定程度上削减了洪峰流量,与自然溃决相比减小了7.7％ ～20.1％,表明开挖人工泄流槽降低坝前水位的措施对于降低堰塞湖溃决风险是可行的;(3)以溃决流量增长率高或到达溃决洪峰时间短为判定溃决初期排泄效率高的标准,对比3组人工槽溃决实验,排泄效率由高到低依次为:三角型横断面、复式横断面、梯形横断面.针对唐家山堰塞湖处置,可在梯形槽基础上开挖三角形槽变为复式槽来进一步提升溃决初期排泄效率.