On a clear day you might see an environmental Kuznets curve

We shed some new light on the Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and show how it can be viewed as a particular form of equilibrium relationship, where technology and preference parameters determine the shape of the curve. In contrast to most of the literature on the EKC, we estimate a theoretically consistent model on long-run data (Swedish sulfur emission, covering the period 1900–2002). Furthermore, we test and date structural change. The model suggests four regimes, 1900–1918, 1919–1933, 1934–1967 and 1968–2002, generating four rather different patterns for pollution over time. The policy-conclusions are consonant with Pearce’s general view about the EKC: there is no theoretical presumption that it has an inverted U shape, nor should any country try to “grow out of the environmental problems” without analyzing the benefits and costs of so doing.     

Economic mobility along the business cycle. The case of Peru

The performance of Latin American countries in reducing poverty and expanding the middle class has been remarkable. By taking a close look at the Peruvian experience, we examine how this aggregate behavior relates to business cycle conditions and whether different population groups share this behavior. We find that social mobility is cyclical; it decreases in recessions but increases with strong economic growth. The reduction in poverty in Peru appears to be the result of a sustained increase in the poverty exit rate together with a prolonged decrease in the poverty entry rate. These results hold among heterogeneous groups and are particularly marked for households regarded as initially disadvantaged.     

Do investors in Green Bond market pay a premium? Global evidence

We examine the pricing difference of Green Bonds (GB) and conventional bonds (CBs) in capital markets worldwide. Credit spread is used to observe whether investors would like to pay a premium for GBs over CBs. This study uses panel data regression with hybrid model to analyse daily observations over the period 2016 to 2017. We employ Option-Adjusted spread (OAS) to measure the credit spreads of bonds while controlling for bond specific, macroeconomic and global factors that influence the spread. With the hybrid model used in the panel data analysis, we were able to capture the fixed-effects of variables in a random effect model. We find that GBs are traded at a premium of 63 basis points (BPS), compared with a comparable corporate bond issue. We find that the green label provides issuers an incentive to raise funds through issuing GBs while providing investors an opportunity to diversify their investments returns. Our findings provide several implications to the major stakeholders driving the GB market to scale up the market to finance the required level of global green investment needs. We stress an urgent need to support the growth of the GB market to achieve sustainable development through mitigating climate change challenges.

Abbreviation GB: Green Bond; CB: Conventional Bond; YS: Yield Spread; BPS: Basis Points; OAS: Option-Adjusted Spread; PCSE: Panels Corrected Standard Errors; CPI: Consumer Price Index; GBPs: Green Bond Principles; CBS: Climate Bond Standard     

考虑违约距离的上市公司危机预警模型研究

在上市公司财务危机预警中,违约距离起着重要的不可替代的作用,仅考虑财务指标并不足以完全解释企业财务危机发生的原因.文章应用Merton模型对2002～2004年ST公司和相应配对公司的危机发生之前的违约距离进行了研究,发现危机公司违约距离在危机发生前第三年明显低于正常公司的相应值,违约距离比传统财务指标能更早地预警到企业财务危机的发生.结合违约距离因素的危机预警模型能更明显地提高模型的危机判断正确率.     

改革以来中国农村发展地区差距分析

本文在扩展农业部门新古典经济增长模型的基础上,构建了基于农业生产率指数和农村地区劳动力就业结构的农村发展指标,以此来衡量农村发展水平及其变化状况.为了考察中国农村发展地区差距的变化趋势,我们采用面板数据单位根检验的不同方法对其收敛性进行了严格的计量检验.检验结果显示,在考虑了时间和省份特殊效应、序列相关等因素的影响后,中国各省农村发展差距以及东中西部地区农村发展的内部差距均存在条件性β收敛.     

ML– and semiparametric estimation in logistic models with incomplete covariate data

ML–estimation of regression parameters with incomplete covariate information usually requires a distributional assumption regarding the concerned covariates that implies a source of misspecification. Semiparametric procedures avoid such assumptions at the expense of efficiency. In this paper a simulation study with small sample size is carried out to get an idea of the performance of the ML–estimator under misspecification and to compare it with the semiparametric procedures when the former is based on a correct assumption. The results show that there is only a little gain by correct parametric assumptions, which does not justify the possibly large bias when the assumptions are not met. Additionally, a simple modification of the complete case estimator appears to be nearly semiparametric efficient.     

Panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence

In this paper alternative approaches for testing the unit root hypothesis in panel data are considered. First, a robust version of the Dickey-Fuller t -statistic under contemporaneous correlated errors is suggested. Second, the GLS t -statistic is considered, which is based on the t -statistic of the transformed model. The asymptotic power of both tests is compared against a sequence of local alternatives. To adjust for short-run serial correlation of the errors, we propose a pre-whitening procedure that yields a test statistic with a standard normal limiting distribution as N and T tends to infinity. The test procedure is further generalized to accommodate individual specific intercepts or linear time trends. From our Monte Carlo simulations it turns out that the robust OLS t -statistic performs well with respect to size and power, whereas the GLS t -statistic may suffer from severe size distortions in small and moderate sample sizes. The tests are applied to test for a unit root in real exchange rates.     

企业集团母子公司财务控制系统构建研究

企业集团是以产权关系为纽带 ,由众多企业法人共同组成的联合体。企业集团母子公司财务控制系统是企业集团核心管理内容之一。笔者通过自身的工作经验并结合理论研究认为 :企业集团母子公司财务控制系统是由财务人员控制系统、财务制度控制系统、财务目标控制系统和财务信息控制系统等构建的有机整体 ,企业集团管理当局应提供良好的人文环境和机制环境 ,保证其高效、及时、完整、良好地运行 ,保持企业集团的可持续发展 ,才能实现企业集团价值最大化     

Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.     

Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions

Public investment constitutes one of the main instruments of regional policies. The existence of a direct link between infrastructure and regional income per capita is usually accepted. Literature also describes a positive effect of public investment on private capital accumulation. This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence on this latter relationship for the case of Spanish regions over the period 1965–1997 using panel data methodology. The results show a positive effect of productive and social public investment (especially in education) on private investment. The spillover effects generated by the productive infrastructures located in other regions do not seem to encourage the private investment in neighbouring regions. Public consumption and interest rate exert a negative influence on private capital accumulation. These results are robust to changes in the econometric specification.