福州市旅游客流量现状及其驱动因素

旅游客流量是衡量区域旅游业及旅游经济发展快慢的一个重要指标,也是反映旅游区景观质量好坏与综合服务水平高低的一个综合指标。文章依据福州市最近5年(1999—2003年)的旅游客流量及相关的社会经济数据,分年度、季度、月与黄金周等不同时段对近年来福州市区域旅游客流量的现状及其变动状况进行分析,并从旅游景区(点)内在的引力因素与外在的社会环境驱动因素两方面对影响福州市客流量的主要驱动因素进行了分析。     

Time variation in the cointegrating relationship between stock prices and economic activity

The present paper examines whether there exists a long‐run cointegrating relationship between a stock market index and output and interest rates. Moreover, estimation is conducted over the full sample and both a recursive and rolling sample to examine any time variation in the nature of the relationship. The results support evidence of a single cointegrating vector, where stock prices typically exhibit a positive relationship with industrial production and a negative relationship with interest rates. However, there is significant time variation and periods of time where contrary results are observed. As such any model of stock prices needs to account for such time variation     

基于遥感技术的广州市水库库区桉树林覆盖变化情况研究

以广州市白洞水库和吊钟水库作为实验样区,研究广州"禁桉令"颁布前后,水库库区桉树林覆盖变化情况。实验基于高分辨率遥感影像和遥感目视解译技术开展,研究结果表明,2007年到2013年库区整体的人工桉树林种植区面积呈现先减少后增加的趋势,桉树轮伐区大部分都被再次种植上人工桉树林。当研究区的采伐迹地不再种植桉树时,大都变化为无人维护的疏林地区,这类地表覆盖类型的植被覆盖度小于桉树林种植区,不具备良好的水土保持能力。     

斜拉桥肋板式主梁剪力滞效应研究

大跨度斜拉桥剪力滞效应十分突出,在设计和施工过程中应考虑剪力滞效应的影响。根据能量变分原理,推导出肋板式主梁截面的剪力滞系数简易计算公式。以某460米主跨预应力混凝土斜拉桥为研究对象,采用大型空间有限元分析程序MIDAS FEA 3.3进行三维实体有限元数值分析,并与通过能量变分法计算得到的剪力滞系数比较发现,宽度较大的肋板式主梁剪力滞效应突出,且跨中处截面剪力滞系数小,而塔根处的截面剪力滞系数大,在设计和施工过程中应采取必要的措施保证结构安全。     

黄河下游2010年汛前调水调沙河势监测分析

利用环境减实卫星遥感监测影像,分析了2010年黄河调水调沙下游河势现状,并通过对比近几年河势变化情况,分析了调水调沙对河势的影响。结果表明:①经过多年调水调沙,黄河下游河道主槽刷深,过流能力大大增强,河势也相对稳定;②一些原来靠溜较好的工程,如驾部、南裹头、马庄、马渡险工等,有脱河脱溜的趋势,建议对这些河段加强河势变化监测;③在多年调水调沙作用下,毛庵—三官庙、黑岗口—东坝头河段工程靠溜状况趋好,河势逐步向有利方向发展,尤其是柳园口—欧坦工程河段,大部分原来不靠河的工程开始逐步靠溜,当前河势较为顺畅。     

三峡水库175 m试验性蓄水过程水文泥沙分析

为掌握三峡水库175 m试验性蓄水过程中库区水位、流量、含沙量变化过程,通过三峡库区寸滩、清溪场、万县、朱沱（三）水文站实测的水位、流量、含沙量、水面比降资料,分析了蓄水过程中三峡库区沿程水面比降、库区水文站的水位流量关系、含沙量变化、库区冲淤变化等。分析结果为认识掌握三峡水库175 m蓄水后库区水文泥沙的变化规律积累了资料,对探索三峡库区水文泥沙的监测方式和分析研究将具有积极作用。     

图们江布尔哈通河干流有机污染指标时空变化研究

根据布尔哈通河干流2000-2009年水质监测资料.研究其10年来的有机污染指标(CODMn)的时空变化情况及趋势,结果表明:2009年的有机污染物明显少于2006年,表明水污染治理工作取得了较大成绩,但是丰水期和枯水期水质差异明显,枯水期水质劣于丰水期;自2004年以来水质呈逐年变好趋势;布尔哈通河干流水质有所改善,...     

The Sanaga discharge at the Edea Catchment outlet (Cameroon): An example of hydrologic responses of a tropical rain‐fed river system to changes in precipitation and groundwater inputs and to flow regulation

The Sanaga River is one of Sub‐Saharan Africa's largest and greatly regulated rivers. Available flow data for this hydrosystem largely cover the pre‐ and post‐regulation periods. From comparisons between unregulated (hypothetical) and observed scenarios, it has been possible to separate and to quantify hydro‐climatic (groundwater + rainfall) change effects from anthropogenic impacts (especially dam‐related alterations). To appreciate shifts in the river regime, discontinuity detection tests and the IHA model were applied to discharge data series reflecting average and extreme flow conditions, respectively. Results obtained principally from the Hubert segmentation method reveal that a major discontinuity occurred in 1970–1971 separating a surplus phase between 1945–1946 and 1969–1970, and a deficient and much contrasted one, from 1971/1972. This implies that the Sanaga catchment is dominantly affected by hydro‐climatic changes. However, wide land cover/land use changes experienced here since 1988 have resulted in an increase in surface runoff. Additional quickflows linked to these changes may have partly compensated for the substantial decline in the dry season rainfall and groundwater inputs observed from this date. Although at the monthly scale, dam‐related impacts on average flows increase with stage of regulation, the seasonal variability of the river regime remains generally unaffected. A comparison of the IHA statistics, calculated from unregulated and observed streamflow data, show that hydrologic shifts occurring in maximum and minimum discharges are mostly significant from 1971/1972 and are mainly due to the action of dams. Minimum flows appear, however, widely impacted, thus reflecting the prime objective assigned to the existing reservoirs, constructed to supplement flows for hydroelectricity production during the dry season. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

刚果(金)SICOMINES铜钴矿矿区边坡敏感性分析

敏感性分析在露采矿山边坡角优化和矿山滑坡治理中具有重要作用和意义.以刚果(金)SICOMINES露天矿2一2'边坡为例,考虑重度、粘聚力、内摩擦角、地下水等敏感因子,通过敏感性分析,明确了矿区滑坡治理的主要对象;通过坡角敏感性分析,为矿区提供了最合理边坡角.就本例而言,原设计边坡角处于稳定,可进行边坡角加陡,提高边坡角...     

漳河水库入库径流序列变化趋势分析

依据漳河水库1963-2008年入库径流资料,采用R/S分析方法和M ann-Kendall参数秩次相关检验法对其未来入库径流变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:①水库流域未来径流量将呈缓慢下降的趋势,且未来1月和7月的径流量变化趋势的随机性成份可能很大,应采取必要对策和措施,以应对未来可能出现的干旱或暴雨洪涝等自然灾害。②1995年为突变点,前后两个系列的统计特征值均具有明显的差异,已经不符合"一致性"的要求。③对于20世纪70~80年代的持续枯水期,应理解为这只是其径流丰枯周期变化中的一个枯水期。④流域人类活动日趋频繁,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化,对入库径流量有较大的影响。