Economic development lessons from and for North American Indian economies*

This paper reviews the literature on economic development as it relates to indigenous people in the United States and Canada, and focuses on how institutions affect economic development of reservation and reserve economies. Evidence shows that strong property rights to reservation and reserve land and natural resources, whether communal or individual, are and always have been important determinants of productivity. Political and legal institutions that are perceived as stable and predictable to tribal members and to non‐Natives also improve economic opportunities for indigenous people living on reservations and reserves. Research reviewed here also shows that culture and acculturation are important in the development process. Although our emphasis is on North America, the findings are applicable to indigenous people in other parts of the world and shed light on growth questions that loom large for developing countries around the world.     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的邻近下穿隧道深基坑施工风险分析

为了减小邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险及灾害损失,科学预防施工安全事故,提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）的深基坑施工风险分析模型。首先,运用BWM（best worst method）确定准则的权重;其次,基于关联规则挖掘风险因素间的相互关系,并以此构建DBN结构模型;最后,以新建厦门北站地下一层社会连廊深基坑工程为例,对提出的方法进行有效性和适用性检验。结果表明：基坑围护结构的安全度在静态被评为“较高”和“极高”的概率分别为34.6%和36.1%,且此结果随着输入风险证据发生动态变化,运用反向推理也能迅速找出围护桩渗水风险;提出的模型能明确邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险传递过程中的关键风险点,并能进行动态风险预测以及事故后致因诊断,从而实现邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险的动态管控。所提出的优化DBN模型对工前风险评估、先验分析和风险诊断有较好的适用性和较高的准确性,可为邻近既有隧道深基坑施工过程中的安全管控提供有效的决策支持,大幅提高风险控制效率。     

贝叶斯模型平均法在流域组合预报中的应用

基于贝叶斯模型法的计算框架,应用概率论和统计学的方法针对多个单一子流域水文模型进行分析处理,得到了较为精确的预报结果。该方法与以往单一预报模拟方法相比,具有综合、完整的优点,基于贝叶斯模型平均法的水文模型组合预报可以给出精度较高的预报模拟结果。     

The Scottish Path to Capitalist Agriculture 2: The Capitalist Offensive (1747–1815)

The first in this series of articles left Scotland on the verge of agrarian transformation. Although the nation geographically nearest to England, it remained in 1745 considerably more distant in social structure. England was the first state unambiguously to complete the transition from feudal to capitalist agriculture. Unlike England, however, those that followed did not have a period of several centuries in which to undertake the process. Lenin identified the alternatives that they faced as the Prussian 'reformist' and American 'revolutionary' paths. Scotland was to prefigure the Prussian path, where the feudal landowners themselves instigated the transition to capitalism in the countryside. After the final defeat of Jacobitism at Culloden in 1746, the Scottish feudal landowners were juridically stripped of the powers (military tenures, local jurisdictions) with which a section of them had threatened the British state. They were, however, allowed to retain most of their power over their tenants. With no remaining alternative but to adapt to the capitalist mode of production, they systematically used these powers to reorganize their estates along existing English lines. The speed and extent of the transformation that followed remains unprecedented in Western European history.     

江苏国内旅游客源市场空间结构研究

以江苏省国内旅游抽样调查资料为基础,运用ADod指标、数值模拟等方法分析了江苏国内旅游客源市场份额分布情况,发现2000—2008年各个年份一级客源市场都占有绝对的主导地位,但有不断下降的趋势;江苏客源地到目的地的平均距离总体上呈现出不断上升的趋势,对远距离客源地的吸引能力在不断的加强;江苏省国内旅游客源市场分布符合距离衰减规律,客源市场在500km以内衰减较快,距离效应比较明显,500km以内的区域的比重占到了60%以上,500—2300km客流量呈现波动减少的特征;江苏国内客源市场的衰减规律遵循幂指数衰减,其距离摩擦指数为1.2095。     

Should the monetary policy rule be different in a financial crisis?

This article reviews the finding that standard loss functions in output and inflation are higher during discretionary periods than in periods during which monetary policy is described by a rule, such as the Taylor rule. It shows that the finding is consistent with earlier research, but argues that we really do not know if the Taylor rule would have improved performance during the recent financial crisis. The article then considers modifications of policy rules to deal with changes in interest rate spreads, credit aggregates and banks׳ balance sheets.     

基子组合预测法的公铁立交桥交通量预测研究

交通量的调查与预测是公路管理中的一项基础性工作,为了能够科学预测交通量,在交通工程理论、系统论等理论的指导下．采取系统分析的方法,对近10年公铁立交桥的各种交通组成、交通量,当地人口、GDP数量进行实地调查,再把调查的交通量数据进行折算为标准交通量,以此为基础对立交桥的交通量科学分析,进行组合预测,把预测的结果通过多元回归验证,最终确定了该立交桥的交通量,为公路建设总体布局与规划、旧路技术改造以及交通措施管理等提供了重要依据。     

复合支护技术在深水平破碎岩层中的应用

深部破碎巷道具有非线性大变形特征,单一的支护方式难以控制。矿井在进入深部开采后,软岩巷道围岩出现显著变形,围岩破碎严重,对巷道围岩稳定性的控制变得极其困难。针对平煤四矿三水平上部变电所岩性较为破碎的特点,通过理论分析和对以往成功经验的借签,提出了采用锚网喷+锚索+U型钢支架+喷浆的支护技术,加强了深部破碎岩巷的支护,较好地解决了围岩松软破碎、高变形巷道的支护难题,为其它类似条件下巷道围岩控制提供了参考。     

浅谈建筑设计中的艺术形式感

建筑作为一种实用艺术,不仅要体现出适用的特点,而且要有美感,要满足人们精神感受上的审美要求。建筑作为艺术门类的一种,遵循和谐和多样统一的美学基本原则。作为一名建筑师来说,创造符合功能的形式美建筑是不可忽视的。