Bayesian assessment of dimensionality in reduced rank regression

We consider Bayesian inference about the dimensionality in the multivariate reduced rank regression framework, which encompasses several models such as MANOVA, factor analysis and cointegration models for multiple time series. The fractional Bayes approach is used to derive a closed form approximation to the posterior distribution of the dimensionality and some asymptotic properties of the approximation are proved. Finite sample properties are studied by simulation and the method is applied to growth curve data and cointegrated multivariate time series.     

Revisiting Savage in a conditional world

Summary. I present an axiomatization of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating in a conditional decision problem. This result improves our understanding of the Bayesian standard from two perspectives: 1) it uses a set of axioms which are weak and intuitive; 2) it provides a formal proof to results on the relation between dynamic consistency, expected utility and Bayesian updating which have never been explicitly proved in a fully subjective framework. Received: December 1, 2000; revised version: February 26, 2001     

中国城市化与生态环境耦合规律与实证分析

本文在阐明城市化与生态环境交互耦合含义的基础上,利用城市化的S型生长曲线和生态环境演变的倒U型曲线,演绎出城市化与生态环境耦合的规律曲线,并以中国的实际数据为例,进行实证分析。研究表明:(1)生态环境随城市化发展呈现出着先恶化、后改善的不规则倒U型耦合规律,但该规律曲线只是它们实际耦合的一种演变趋势;(2)1985～2005年间,中国工业废水排放量与城市化水平耦合表现出先倒U型和后U型的阶段特征,而这种特征曲线正是技术进步、产业结构高级化、人们环保意识的增强以及经济增长的压力等因素综合作用的结果。     

中国期权市场运作规则的制定与验证研究

笔者以郑商所期权核心规则制定和期权模拟测试结果为例进行分析。介绍中国期权市场运作研究项目背景,研究期权市场的重要功能、期权市场与期货市场关系,探讨中国期权上市的可行性以及如何进一步做好期权上市准备工作、加快上市步伐等实际运作问题。     

广东省三水市思贤滘水道分流影响因素分析

以数学模型为基础手段,采用恒定总流连续方程、能量方程,分析临界状态下定床恒定流和定床非恒定流状态时思贤滘水道分流影响因素。将特殊推广至一般,找出各水力要素与分流量（比）的关系,并将水位、流量无量纲化,绘制出规律性较强的分流比关系曲线,对思贤滘水道分流的研究作出重大贡献。     

岩石(体)应力扩容试验及本构进展研究

对目前国内外岩石(体)应力扩容机制的室内试验及本构模型研究进行了系统的分析与总结,得到以下结论:描述应力作用对岩石体积膨胀的影响,可用峰前扩容,峰后碎胀来定义;在加载、卸载两种情况下岩石(体)均可产生扩容,但后者的扩容变形要大于前者;围压或中间主应力对扩容具有抑制作用;岩石本构中要采用不相关联流动法则,且能体现扩容特性...     

调亏灌溉条件下甘蔗耗水规律试验研究

通过大棚内的甘蔗盆栽试验,研究了不同生育期调亏灌溉条件下甘蔗的耗水规律。结果表明:甘蔗的耗水强度因土壤含水量的不同而不同,各生育期内,土壤含水量大的甘蔗耗水强度就大;甘蔗各生育期的阶段耗水量因生育期的长短而不同,萌芽期的甘蔗耗水量最小,伸长期的耗水量最大。在不考虑降雨因素影响的条件下,研究了甘蔗生长的耗水规律参数。     

在商法与消费者法之间寻求平衡的保险法--美国《责任保险法重述》评述与启示

《责任保险法重述》可以说是美国保险法近年来发展的总结。《重述》以被保险人与保险人之间的权利义务关系为中心展开,以亲保险人规则(Pro Insurer Rule)与亲被保险人规则(Pro Insured Rule)之间的冲突博弈为主线,在保险合同解释、不实陈述、抗辩义务、强制执行与救济等方面对规则进行了澄清。伴随着金融消费者权益保护运动的兴起,我国保险法未来发展是更偏向于消费者权益保护法还是商法,长期以来存在争议。由于美国对我国保险法的规则制定和保险业务实践均有不同程度的影响,因此,以《重述》作为我们观察的制度样本,不仅可以从规则内容上为我国保险法改革提供借鉴;而且还提供了以"美国"作为方法论,探讨《重述》经历项目性质变更,在后金融危机时代保护保险消费者利益与维护保险人商业经营之间所作的努力与妥协,为我们回答"商法"与"消费者法"之争提供参考。     

基于非均匀系数的水库移民收入恢复评价

水利水电工程征地移民搬迁后的生产生活恢复,不仅是实现移民规划目标的重点内容,也是保持安置区社会稳定的重要因素。水库移民搬迁后的收入恢复水平是评价移民工程搬迁安置效果的一个重要指标。移民收入的评价,除收入水平之外,还涉及到贫富差距等共同富裕问题。针对南水北调中线丹江口库区试点移民的收入恢复,在抽样与跟踪调查获取数据的基础上,分析了移民收入的整体恢复水平,并利用非均匀系数对收入的差距进行了研究。     

Roll Waves in High Gradient Channels

Abstract

Vedernikov's number quantifies the allowable capacity that can be sustained as a stable uniform flow in a high gradient channel, but it does not provide any guidance to the design of freeboard when roll waves exist. Without considering roll waves, high gradient channels are undersized using the uniform flow approach and fail to maintain design integrity. This paper presents revised design curves to determine the stability of flow in high gradient channels. When the design condition exceeds the limiting condition, roll waves should be considered in design. This study applies the model of moving hydraulic jump to simulate roll waves. It provides estimations for wave heights when Froude number is greater than 1.50.