江垭碾压混凝土坝无应力变形统计模型分析

无应力变形分析是大坝安全监测资料分析中应力应变分析的基础。文章以江垭大坝无应力变形实际监测资料为依据,通过温度因子、时效因子的选择建立无应力变形的统计模型,进而对模型的各个分量进行分析,得出江垭大坝目前无应力变形的状态。     

基于GBSAR的微变形监测系统应用研究

地基合成孔径甫达系统（GBSAR）作为一种新型的对地形变监测设备,通过合成孔径技术和步进频率技术实现雷达影像方位向和距离向的高空间分辨率,获得亚毫米级微变形监测精度。介绍了基于GBSAR地基快速雷达做变形监测系统的原理和应用模式,然后通过大坝溃坝模拟实验、高建筑物风偏变形和桥梁负载微变形实验分析验证了该系统可有效应用于多个变形监测领域。     

Monthly Joint Operations for the Nakdong Multi-reservoir System in Korea

Abstract

This study applies a state-of-art optimization technique, SSDP/ESP (Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction), to derive a monthly joint operating policy for the Nakdong multi-reservoir system in Korea. A rainfall-runoff model, SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis And Reservoir Regulation), is linked to the SSDP/ESP model to provide ESP scenarios for runoff during the next month in the Nakdong River basin. The primary advantage of the SSDP/ESP is that it updates the derived operating policy as new ESP forecasts become available. Another SSDP model that employs historical runoff scenarios (SSDP/Hist) is also developed. The main difference between the two SSDP models is that SSDP/Hist is an off-line model whereas the SSDP/ESP is on-line. The developed operating policies are tested with a simulation model using an object-oriented simulation software, STELLA. The simulation results show that SSDP/ESP is superior to SSDP/Hist with respect to the water supply criterion, although both models perform similarly with respect to the hydroelectric energy production criterion.     

溪洛渡水电站拱坝施工期坝基变形监测分析

为了解溪洛渡水电站拱坝坝基在施工期、蓄水初期及运行期不同阶段的变形情况和工作状态,确保大坝安全,同时为给工程建设及运行期管理提供科学依据,对坝基垂直位移和水平位移进行了监测,并对监测资料进行了初步分析.监测结果表明拱坝坝基沉降变形比较均匀,变化规律正常.     

基于近邻估计的年径流预测动态 联系数回归模型

集对分析理论为处理确定、不确定系统提供了新的途径,根据集对分析理论建立起来的预测联系数回归模型可以明显改善回归模型的预测精度。对于预测因子结构具有的动态性,文中将利用近邻估计,通过计算各个预测因子的变异系数,来判断预测因子在某次预测中处于强势或者弱势,进而动态地选择预报功能大的强势因子,消除对预报起负面作用的弱势因子的作用,这样很好地体现了预测因子结构中具有的动态性。基于此建立了基于近邻估计的年径流预测动态联系数回归模型（NNE-DCNR）。结果说明：用NNE-DCNR去预测年径流量,预测精度比常用预测方法有显著提高,在水文水资源的预测中具有推广应用价值     

Analysis and numerical study of a hybrid BGM-3DVAR data assimilation scheme using satellite radiance data for heavy rain forecasts

A fine heavy rain forecast plays an important role in the accurate flood forecast, the urban rainstorm waterlogging and the secondary hydrological disaster preventions. To improve the heavy rain forecast skills, a hybrid Breeding Growing Mode (BGM)-three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) Data Assimilation (DA) scheme is designed on running the Advanced Research WRF (ARW WRF) model using the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit A (AMSU-A) satellite radiance data. Results show that: the BGM ensemble prediction method can provide an effective background field and a flow dependent background error covariance for the BGM-3DVAR scheme. The BGM-3DVAR scheme adds some effective mesoscale information with similar scales as the heavy rain clusters to the initial field in the heavy rain area, which improves the heavy rain forecast significantly, while the 3DVAR scheme adds information with relatively larger scales than the heavy rain clusters to the initial field outside of the heavy rain area, which does not help the heavy rain forecast improvement. Sensitive experiments demonstrate that the flow dependent background error covariance and the ensemble mean background field are both the key factors for adding effective mesoscale information to the heavy rain area, and they are both essential for improving the heavy rain forecasts.     

A physical approach of the short-term wind power prediction based on CFD pre-calculated flow fields

A physical approach of the wind power prediction based on the CFD pre-calculated flow fields is proposed in this paper. The flow fields are obtained based on a steady CFD model with the discrete inflow wind conditions as the boundary conditions, and a database is established containing the important parameters including the inflow wind conditions, the flow fields and the corresponding wind power for each wind turbine. The power is predicted via the database by taking the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) wind as the input data. In order to evaluate the approach, the short-term wind power prediction for an actual wind farm is conducted as an example during the period of the year 2010. Compared with the measured power, the predicted results enjoy a high accuracy with the annual Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 15.2% and the annual MAE of 10.80%. A good performance is shown in predicting the wind power’s changing trend. This approach is independent of the historical data and can be widely used for all kinds of wind farms including the newly-built wind farms. At the same time, it does not take much computation time while it captures the local air flows more precisely by the CFD model. So it is especially practical for engineering projects.     

箱形涵洞对河床水沙特性影响的试验研究

以漳河的穿河涵洞为对象,采用物理模型的方法,就3年一遇和50年一遇洪水工况时箱形涵洞所在河道的沿程水位、上下游各断面流速及其下游河床局部冲淤变形等问题进行了试验观测,探讨了箱形涵洞对河床水沙特性的影响。试验表明:在3年一遇和50年一遇洪水工况下,箱形涵洞对上游河床的壅水较少,最大壅水高度分别为0.57m和0.3m;涵洞上游各断面的平均流速较无涵洞时有所减小,且断面横向流速分布曲线更平坦。在迎水面出现了河中心流速较左右岸流速大的现象;在涵洞下游较远的CS8断面的平均流速分别为1.8m/s和3.7m/s,与无涵洞时相差不大;在3年一遇洪水工况下,箱形涵洞洞后能形成Fr=4.52的稳定水跃,使得箱形涵洞下游CS6断面的河床局部冲刷较少,其平均冲刷深度约为0.5m。由此可见,箱形涵洞具有较优的水力条件。     

基于可公度理论的关联规则算法在干旱中的预测研究

利用可公度理论中的三元-五元可公度式及其拓展式,从粗粒度角度对郑州地区从1901年-2000年严重干旱等级以上记载年份进行可公度数统计和分析,依据预测结果结合数据挖掘理论中的关联规则算法作进一步推演和修正,结果表明该方法预测准确率达80%,同时预测从2013年-2015年郑州市不会发生严重以上等级干旱。     

基于分级加载的高面板堆石坝应力变形分析

依据非线性弹性K-G模型理论对天池上水库面板堆石坝进行了应力变形分析。首先采用CAD图形和程序控制相结合方法建立坝体与地基模型,考虑了断层构造和岸坡变化,得到了较为精细的三维有限元模型。然后在模型计算中采用了施工逐级加载的方法对坝体进行了模拟,应用修正后的分级加载位移变形公式,对竣工期和正常水位蓄水期的应力变形进行三维有限元分析,得出了两种工况下断层对该高面板坝应力变形影响一般规律。