基于引力模型的中美农产品贸易边境效应研究

针对中美两国在农产品贸易上的新变化,应用引力模型的派生模型——边境效应引力模型对中美两国农产品贸易的流量和流向进行理论和实证研究。首先介绍了边境效应引力模型基本模型的推导过程,并引入了调整模型。然后采用1987至2005年其中5年的截面数据进行计算,结果发现:中美农产品贸易的边境效应显著存在,且呈逐年下降趋势;两国之间的农产品贸易边境效应存在流向和区域上的差异;距离的平方并不影响模型的可靠性。     

The adequacy of asymptotic approximations in the near-integrated autoregressive model with dependent errors

We consider the normalized least squares estimator of the parameter in a nearly integrated first-order autoregressive model with dependent errors. In a first step we consider its asymptotic distribution as well as asymptotic expansion up to order O_p(T⁻¹). We derive a limiting moment generating function which enables us to calculate various distributional quantities by numerical integration. A simulation study is performed to assess the adequacy of the asymptotic distribution when the errors are correlated. We focus our attention on two leading cases: MA(1) errors and AR(1) errors. The asymptotic approximations are shown to be inadequate as the MA root gets close to −1 and as the AR root approaches either −1 or 1. Our theoretical analysis helps to explain and understand the simulation results of Schwert (1989) and DeJong, Nankervis, Savin, and Whiteman (1992) concerning the size and power of Phillips and Perron's (1988) unit root test. A companion paper, Nabeya and Perron (1994), presents alternative asymptotic frameworks in the cases where the usual asymptotic distribution fails to provide an adequate approximation to the finite-sample distribution.     

多专题多比例尺水系河网管理模型研究

随着水利行业GIS系统的快速发展和对性能要求的不断提高,迫切需要解决多比例尺水系河网信息统一访问、关系维护等问题。本文提出多专题多比例尺地图管理模型,通过对地图信息依据不同比例尺和专题进行目录层次和专题层次的划分,实现水系河网信息的全国分布式统一管理和共享系统。文中给出了该模型下的水系河网表示和专题中对象间关系,分析了为形成一套基于空间数据库和空间化分析方法的分布式水系河网信息共享系统所需进行的下一步工作。该模型下的全国水系河网管理系统具有较好的可扩展性,支持有效获取不同比例尺的地图,较少信息冗余和保证信息最大可能。     

网络营销创新定位、运行模型及案例分析

网络营销的创新性质包括创新程度和创新效益两个方面。创新程度反映网络营销创新的影响力度,是过程性指标;创新效益反映网络营销的经济效应,是结果性指标。将创新度和效益度垂直相交构成一个二维平面,并将其分别划分为高低两个级别段,可形成四个定位模块,即触网型创新、网络实验型创新、网络营销专家和运营网络型创新。一般情况下,企业网络营销创新往往从触网型创新出发。进而上升到运营网络型创新阶段,但在网络营销实践中,某些创新运动并不是严格地起于触网型创新,而止于运营网络模型,更有逆向运行的情况存在。     

调节对象参数和运动特性随工况变化的分析

水轮机调节对象的许多参数都是随运行工况变化的。以调节对象线性化模型为基础，从1个实例计算人手，计算了不同工况下水轮机传递系数和发电机6个参数的变化情况，进而计算这些参数变化对捌节对象特征根的影响。通过汁算表明，其水力振荡衰减速度与出力有关．而系统的其他运动特性随工况变化较小。     

新型废水厌氧处理工艺——内循环厌氧反应器

介绍内循环(IC)厌氧反应器的发展、基本结构、运行机理。分析该反应器的工艺过程,指出该工艺具有处理效率高、抗冲击能力强等优点。针对IC反应器存在的缺陷,人们对该反应器进行技术改进:通过提高它的内循环的气量进行处理低浓度有机废水;增加外循环装置缩短IC反应器的启动周期。     

对改革供电企业变电检修现行管理模式的探讨

提出了重组专业化的变电检修总公司的战略思路,对电网企业与总公司之间发展新型关系进行了探讨,指出以战略思维构筑战略联盟,保持合作联盟,实现共赢与发展.分析虽是对检修体制改革,同时也是对安全生产管理体制的变革,有利于供电企业的安全生产管理.     

Biophysical Model of Larval Yellow Perch Advection and Settlement in Lake Michigan

Potential for large-scale physical transport processes to affect recruitment of Lake Michigan yellow perch (Perca flavescens) was studied by examining the variation in larval distribution, growth rate, and settlement during June–August 1998–2003 using a 3D particle transport model linked with an individual-based bioenergetics growth model. In all years, virtual larvae were released nearshore in southwestern Lake Michigan, a known and important spawning region for yellow perch. For any given year, the same circulation pattern and water temperature either promoted or reduced yellow perch settlement depending on the consumption rates and settlement size chosen in the growth model. Increased consumption increased the number of settled larvae and expanded the total area where larvae settled, whereas increased settlement size reduced the number of settled larvae and reduced the overall settlement area. Interannual variability in circulation patterns and water temperature also resulted in contrasting larval settlement rates, settlement locations, and size of settlement areas between years. Model predictions were most consistent with field observations of age-0 yellow perch from Illinois and Michigan waters when settlement was assumed to occur at 50 mm. Moreover, our model suggests that larvae originating from southwestern Lake Michigan can recruit anywhere within the southern basin and even in the northern basin. Future model improvement will require information on the relative contribution of various sectors to the larval pool, their distribution with reference to the hydrodynamic landscape, the feeding and growth of yellow perch during their pelagic phase, and the size at transition to demersal stage.     

资产管理模型及其应用

简要介绍了水电厂资产管理系统的构成，从中引出了以设备为中心、以工作单为主线的资产管理模型，并说明了该模型在水电厂资产管理系统中的应用效果。     

农村劳动力转移模型:基于中国制度背景的构造

本文在对经典的农村劳动力流动模型进行理论梳理的基础上,引入中国的制度变量,试图构建适合中国制度背景的农村劳动力转移模型,同时,运用经验事实对其作进一步的实证检验,并分析了模型的政策含义。