FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model

We develop an open-economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange (FX) intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator and shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. We obtain closed-form solutions for optimal monetary and FX intervention policies assuming the central bank cannot commit to future policies, and we compare the solution to that under policy commitment. We show how FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the exchange rate, of inflation, and of the output gap, thus mitigating welfare losses associated with shocks in the international capital markets. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, there is a risk of indeterminacy (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) although FX intervention can reduce this risk and thus reinforce the credibility of the inflation targeting regime. Model simulations match well the impact of a VIX shock obtained by local projections on a panel of inflation targeting emerging markets.     

Are aquaculture growth policies in high-income countries due diligence or illusionary dreams? Foreseeing policy implications on seafood production in Singapore

In the beginning of 2019, the Singaporean government announced its desire to increase domestic food production and, in particular, aquaculture to reach 30% of self-sufficiency by 2030. Similar policies aiming at encouraging aquaculture growth abound in high-income countries in recent years, but have had limited success. Hence, this paper investigates the potential implications of such policies to foresee consequences beforehand and improve the policy’s chances of success. Three scenarios of aquaculture development are built for Singapore until 2040, among which a business-as-usual scenario and two explorative scenarios aiming at increasing aquaculture production, the first emphasizing existing technologies and the second giving priority to novel and innovative ones, like recirculating aquaculture systems. These scenarios are assessed using an adapted version of the supply-demand partial equilibrium model Asiafish to challenge their viability in the socioeconomic context of Singapore. Only the two explorative scenarios are found to allow the Singaporean government to reach its goal in terms of seafood self-sufficiency by 2030, one of which appears to have strong advantages. In this scenario, imports decrease by 28% by 2040, seafood self-sufficiency reaches 69% and 90% of all aquaculture originates from innovative technologies, which would make Singapore an aquaculture tech-hub. It also has higher benefits within Singapore environmental, social and economic constraints such as land and aquafeed scarcity.     

Fraudster’s and victims’ profiles and loss predictors’ hierarchy in the mental healthcare industry in the US

Abstract

Background

Fraud- or theft-related crimes account for the highest number of crimes in the mental health industry in the US.     

Marx,Sraffa, and Surplus: Observations Prompted by Garegnani (2018)

ABSTRACT

In a posthumously published article, Pierangelo Garegnani (2018. ‘On the Labour Theory of Value in Marx and in the Marxist Tradition.’) depicts Marx’s project in Capital as that of ‘developing systematically the theory of Ricardo and [the] implications of social conflict’ implied by Ricardo’s ‘surplus approach to value and distribution’. This paper argues to the contrary that Marx’s theory of surplus value and exploitation differs from (neo-)Ricardian surplus theory in fundamental ways, and modifies Garegnani’s simple Sraffian model to illustrate the distinctive implications of Marx’s theory.     

Are international environmental policies effective? The case of the Rotterdam and the Stockholm Conventions

This is the first paper to show that participation in an international environmental agreement has some effectiveness. Our identification strategy consists of applying difference-in-differences techniques in a panel data framework to various levels of data aggregation. We find that ratification of the Rotterdam Convention (RC) and the Stockholm Convention (SC) leads to a reduction in trade of hazardous substances from OECD to non-OECD countries. In particular, we find that when the exporter ratifies the RC, there is a reduction in the import of hazardous chemicals of about 7 percent. In the case of the SC, the results show significant reductions of around 16 percent in trade shipments of persistent organic pollutants. This reduction is more than double the effect found for the RC, which was expected due to a more restricted obligation imposed by the SC convention.     

Paired comparison models with age effects modeled as piecewise quadratic splines

We propose new models for analyzing pairwise comparison data, such as that relating to sports. We focus on changes in players’ strengths and the prediction of future results. Our models are based on the Thurstone-Mosteller and Bradley–Terry models, and make use of the time variation in the parameters. Furthermore, we apply our models to data from the Japanese traditional sport sumo, and analyze this data. The proposed models perform better than the standard Thurstone-Mosteller and Bradley–Terry models according to both the Akaike information criterion and the Brier score. We compare the proposed models in detail by focusing on individual sumo wrestlers.     

Collaborative business models: Aligning and operationalizing alliances

It is not unusual for companies to generate substantial revenue through alliances. However, alliance failure rates are high, leaving much revenue at risk and value unrealized. The big challenge facing managers is to align company interests with alliance interests. Such alignment can only be achieved when executives pay considerable attention to building the right collaborative business model. In this article, we synthesize the insights of the existing literature to arrive at three collaborative business models—sharing, specialization, and allocation—that managers can use to address the specific requirements of their alliances. Because the literature provides limited insight regarding how to operationalize these models, we highlight what managers need to focus on when operationalizing each of these models. We find that the choice for an overall business model is relatively straightforward in most cases but that operationalization of business models requires more complex combinations of management techniques. Finally, we show how the three collaborative business models can be combined to build hybrid models.     

How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015

Even if local policymakers increasingly claim that tourism is one of the key factors of future economic development for the French small island La Réunion, international tourist arrivals are observed to be locked in a stagnation phase since the beginning of the 2000s. Starting from this stylized fact, this article aims to study if this phenomenon results from major external events hurting this economy regularly. Next, by using univariate unit root procedures with structural breaks, we test for evidence of permanent or transitory effects of external shocks on international tourist inflows (total, by source markets, and by category) over the period 1981–2015. Finally, the empirical analysis allows us to reject the null of a unit root. Then, stagnation of tourism arrivals to La Réunion is not due to exogenous shocks but probably results from endogenous impediments within the domestic tourism industry and unsuitable public policies.     

巢湖派河流域清水廊道技术产业推广模式的构建

派河为巢湖一级支流，水质差，针对派河流域开展了多项研究，产生了多项清水廊道技术，尚缺乏有效的产业化推广模式，基于此，构建了多层次、多元化清水廊道技术产业推广模式（“2S”VIP）。该模式包括组织机构、运行机制、推广模式平台、保障措施等。其中清水廊道技术推广模式平台包括综合技术信息平台、综合服务平台、产业化推广平台，以综合技术信息平台为支撑，以互联网+、大数据等为手段，综合服务平台为依托，产业化推广平台实现技术与市场的衔接。在政府的引导和监督下，通过一系列保障措施使各平台能顺利运行，达到产、学、研、用的有机融合。     

基于VAR模型探究BDI和燃油价格的相互影响

燃油价格近期受疫情影响出现剧烈波动,国际干散货航运市场也受到巨大影响。基于Clarksons官方数据库1992年1月至2020年4月相关数据,进行实证研究发现,国际燃油价格的暴跌对波罗的海干散货运价指数的下降有着显著的正向影响;燃油价格虽然也在一定程度上受到BDI的影响,但存在一定的滞后性。这有利于干散货运输公司根据燃油价格波动预测运价指数的变化趋势,从而采取多样的方式应对冲击。也对保障干散货运输市场的稳定发展有重要意义。