三峡水库汛期“蓄清排浑”动态运用方式计算研究

在入库沙量大幅减少的背景下,三峡水库持续开展汛期中小洪水调度,增大了汛期库区泥沙淤积和防洪风险,减少了水库下泄大流量的机会。在三峡水库汛期,开展“蓄清排浑”泥沙调度方式动态运用研究有助于进一步优化三峡水库汛期调度方式。利用三峡水库干支流河道一维非恒定流数学模型,探索开展了三峡水库汛期 “蓄清排浑”动态运用方式计算研究,并提出了汛期“蓄清排浑”动态运用方案。计算结果表明:三峡水库汛期“蓄清排浑”动态运用方式可以同时兼顾排沙、发电和防洪,“蓄清”水位150 m要优于155 m,“蓄清”运行期间库水位可选择在145~150 m之间浮动运行;建议将寸滩含沙量达到2.0 kg/m³且当日寸滩站入库流量≥25 000 m³/s的时间作为水库增泄“排浑”的起始时间,将出库含沙量降至约0.1 kg/m³作为“排浑”调度结束重新进入“蓄清”调度的泥沙参考因素。研究成果可为三峡水库汛期优化调度提供参考。     

复杂偏压小净距隧道围岩压力计算及参数影响性研究

为研究不同隧道净距及地表坡度对复杂偏压浅埋小净距隧道围岩压力的影响规律,引用公路隧道设计规范,建立围岩压力计算模型,推导出隧道围岩压力的理论计算公式;结合数值模拟验证了理论计算公式的合理性,讨论了不同隧道净距和不同地表坡度的参数值变化对先行洞和后行洞的拱顶、拱腰及拱脚围岩压力的影响规律。结果表明:在两洞先后开挖情况下,隧道净距及地表坡度的变化对隧道内侧围岩压力影响较大,并且先行洞内侧围岩压力同净距及坡度大小正相关,后行洞内侧围岩压力同净距及坡度大小负相关。研究结果可为类似隧道工程的设计和施工提供参考。     

基于BIM技术的水工隧洞施工进度仿真研究

针对目前水工隧洞施工仿真模型与三维软件结合不足和未实现完整的仿真模拟2个问题,基于BIM技术开展水工隧洞施工进度仿真理论与施工进度4D化技术的研究。首先基于CATIA建立水工隧洞的三维参数化模型;再结合水工隧洞施工特点和仿真原理,建立水工隧洞施工仿真模型;最后提出水工隧洞4D实现框架。通过以上方法实现了水工隧洞施工进度的查询和施工信息的展示。实践证明,基于BIM的水工隧洞施工进度仿真模型可以实现施工进度的计算和施工强度的查询,以提高工程建设过程中的管理水平。     

基于增量动力分析的重力坝抗震性能评估

基于增量动力分析法(IDA),采用塑性耗能与总变形能的比值作为结构性能指标,提出了重力坝抗震性能评价的三级震害划分和两个极限状态下的失效性划分的建议,做出IDA曲线,并结合分位数分析和易损性分析对重力坝抗震性能进行评估。以邯郸京娘湖重力坝为例,进行一系列的非线性分析,结果表明:分位数分析的IDA曲线中每个极限状态的峰值地面加速度PGA均大于设计地震的峰值地面加速度,满足该重力坝的功能保障性水平和安全保证性水平。易损性分析下,1.5倍设计地震作用时65.92%的概率处于正常使用阶段,100%可以保证安全。结果表明该重力坝具有良好的抗震性能。该项研究结果为重力坝抗震性能设计和安全风险评估提供了新思路。     

负载纳米水合氧化铁活性炭去除水中铅的实验研究

通过共沉淀法制备一种负载纳米水合氧化铁活性炭,研究其对铅的吸附性能、负载前后活性炭的结构的影响,并进行TEM和XRD表征分析。利用动态小柱实验探究不同p H值、进水浓度和空床接触时间对铅吸附能力的影响,同时比较负载前后活性炭处理实际河道水中铅的吸附穿透曲线。结果表明:无定型的纳米水合氧化铁成功负载于活性炭上,负载后的活性炭显著提高了铅的吸附性能,其对铅的吸附容量随p H值、空床接触时间的增大而增加,进水浓度的变化基本不影响铅的吸附容量。以实际河道水为处理对象,得出负载前后的活性炭穿透点运行的床体积分别为1233和11004,显著提高了9倍,表明负载纳米水合氧化铁活性炭可以有效去除实际水体中的铅,具有良好的应用前景。     

A bioeconomic model for estimating the optimal level of deer and tag sales

This paper presents a dynamic model that determines the optimal number of deer hunting permit sales, subject to the objective of maximizing the discounted economic benefits stream from both the consumptive and nonconsumptive uses of deer. This bioeconomic model integrates economic benefits estimated using the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method with biological growth constraints on deer. Using a hunting zone in California as a case study, the model found that the optimal levels of buck hunting permits sold should change on a rotational basis over time and that the current practice of not selling doe hunting permits for that zone is non optimal.     

员工职业生涯的心理契约的动态管理

员工的职业生涯是一个动态的过程。在这一过程的不同阶段,员工的需求、态度、工作行为都存在着较大的差别,员工与企业之间的心理契约在内容上也会发生变化。而心理契约作为一种隐性契约,具有显著的特殊性,这种特殊性在客观上要求企业对其进行动态管理。本文从职业生涯管理的视角阐述了员工不同职业生涯阶段心理契约的特点以及如何对其进行动态管理。     

Interbank Relationships and the Credit Channel in Germany

A crucial condition for the existence of a credit channel through bank loansis that monetary policy should be able to change bank loan supply. This papercontributes to the discussion on this issue by presenting empirical evidence fromdynamic panel estimations based on a dataset that comprises individual balancesheet information on all German banks. It shows that the average bank reduces itslending more sharply in reaction to a restrictive monetary policy measure the lowerits ratio of short-term interbank deposits to total assets. A dependence on its size canonly be found if explicitly controlled for this dominating effect. Overall, the evidenceis compatible with the existence of a credit channel but the results indicate that it is weakened by the network structures that exist in the German banking system.     

Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.     

试析森林生态环境价值计量研究中的几种干扰因素

本文就目前影响在林生态环境价值计量研究的几个干扰因素进行剖析。其中主要包括森林生态环境难以进入市场的原因；在林生态环境资源并不是都重要计量；森林生态环境的价值既是哲学的价值也是经济学上的价值；森林的生态环境转移与它的价值转移没有实现统一；森林生态环境价值计量使用的概念需要明确和统一；在林生态环境资源的监测和统计；影子价格理论在森林生态环境价值计量中应用的合理性；森林生态环境资源生产的投入产出进行过程等问题。这些问题如果得到及时解决，将有助于在林生态环境计量的进一步研究。