堤基管涌机理及防治设计准则研究

堤基管涌抢险和防治是堤防工程安全的心腹之患,水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心自成立以来,持续开展堤基管涌机理和防治设计准则方面的研究。系统深入研究了典型堤基结构管涌破坏机理和模式、管涌自愈现象,发现了不同堤基结构管涌发展机理和破坏模式的特点和区别;提出了管涌抢险合理范围和盖重合理宽度的确定方法建议;提出并论证了悬挂式短墙布置在背水侧更能有效控制管涌发展的作用机理和设计方法;研发了管涌动态模拟数学模型和软件。提升了对管涌机理的认识,发展了传统渗流控制理论,对管涌防治和抢险有重要指导作用,成果已应用于堤防设计和抢险中。     

基于HI应变计的首次断裂带岩体地应力监测

采用空心包体(HI)应变计进行了首次断裂带岩体应力监测试验。在深埋隧洞施工开挖期,选择合适部位进行了大直径钻孔,利用对中装置、采用水泥净浆灌浆方式将HI应变计埋设在钻孔孔深24 m部位,建立了基于惠斯通电桥半桥测量的云监测系统。确定了只采用水泥净浆和HI材料弹性参数进行修正系数计算,通过分析监测数据规律确定应变计算初始时间后进行了三维应力增量计算。结果显示:以2021年9月16日为初始计算日期、在时段4和时段5期间的应力增量计算结果的第一主应力(σ₁)的范围为10.3~15.0 MPa,方向为缓倾角W向;第二主应力(σ₂)的范围为3.1~4.6 MPa,方向为陡倾角NEE至SEE向;第三主应力(σ₃)的变动范围为0.2~1.8 MPa,方向为缓倾角近S向;最大水平主应力(σ_H)和最小水平主应力(σ_h)分量的变动范围分别为10.1~13.9 MPa和0.2~1.8 MPa,最大水平主应力方向(α_H)为近EW向。结果讨论显示:通过监测数据规律分析确定的计算初始时间更具合理性;HI应变计应力监测受多因素影响,包括开挖应力扰动影响和一次监测洞段的应力和变形调整影响;本试验所得最大水平主应力量级及其方向与已有地应力试验结果接近,监测结果反映龙蟠-乔后断裂带的应力场特征。     

1975—2020年环巢湖湿地景观格局演变及驱动分析

基于1975—2020年间7期遥感数据,分析环巢湖湿地景观格局变化,揭示研究区域的演变特征及其驱动因素。采用基于样本的面向对象分类法,辅以高分辨率影像对错分地类进行目视修正。通过计算转移矩阵、动态度和景观格局指数分析景观格局特征与动态变化,通过主成分分析讨论演变驱动力。结果表明:①1975—2020年,研究区域湿地面积总体上处于缩减状态,由971.77 km²缩减到905.29 km²,主要转换成建设用地、农用地和植被用地;人工湿地在2013—2020年面积增加至39.58 km²,主要由农用地转化而来;非湿地景观中,建设用地面积增长最快,由13.85 km²增长到566.56 km²。②在景观指数分析中,斑块数量增加,不同类型斑块指数的波动变化存在一定差异;整体上景观破碎化指数从0.49增加到1.26,景观异质性增加,研究区域趋于复杂化;多样性指数总体呈现缓慢增长趋势,趋于均衡化分布。③由驱动力分析得出,自然因素在景观格局演变前期影响显著,随着社会经济的发展,自然因素作用逐渐弱化,社会经济成为景观变化的重要驱动因素;政策因素在研究区域景观演变方向中起主导作用,随着一系列政策调控的实施,有效改善了景观类型的分布。     

进站信号机开放时机的计算

开放进站信号机是车站的基本作业,进站信号机的开放时机对车站通过能力有一定影响,既要尽量减少对车站咽喉区的占用时间,又要保证列车进出站的运行安全。为此提出进站信号机开放时机的计算公式,并按自动闭塞和半自动闭塞区段两种情况,确定进站信号机的开放时机。     

横列联设企业调车场能力计算方法

中小型企业调车场通常采用横列联设布置。这种调车场的能力计算,可先根据调机和车辆在调车场内的作业流程和走行径路,建立各项作业占用调车场的时间计算公式。然后通过调整企业调车场运输量的大小,计算其能力利用率,采用逐步逼近的方法,试算出能力达到100%时的相应运输量,确定企业调车场的能力。并以某钢铁公司企业调车场为例具体说明其计算过程。     

装备制造企业动态能力评价及其实证研究

阐释了装备制造企业动态能力的概念内涵与构成要素,设计出由市场感知、组织学习、资源获取、重构与转变、协调与控制5个动态能力一级指标和20个二级指标组成的评价指标体系,采用AHP法确定指标权重。针对指标度量的模糊性与不确定性,建立了证据推理的数据融合方法,并对江淮汽车集团动态能力进行了实证分析。     

Executive flight simulator as a learning tool in new companies’ resource planning based on the balanced scorecard

In many cases, a deficient strategic planning in new companies has led entrepreneurs to take inadequate initial decisions that, in the long term, reflect consequences in the failure of many new businesses. The objective of this article is to propose an executive flight simulator, which will help to identify and evaluate the different development strategies for resources of a new manufacturing company, under the four perspectives of the balanced scorecard, educating the user on the impact that these would have in the main performance indicators. The simulator is designed utilizing the focus of system dynamics to be used didactically in master's degree programs in administration, by entrepreneurs or in executive development programs.     

Iterated VaR or CTE measures: A false good idea?

The purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we consider different risk measures in order to determine the solvency capital requirement of a pension fund. Secondly, we illustrate the impact of the time horizon of long-term guarantee products on these capital. We consider a financial market modelled by a common Black–Scholes–Merton model. We neglect the mortality and underwriting risks by assuming that the pension fund is fully hedged against these risks, which allows us to keep understandable and tractable formulæ (the longevity risk will be a part of future researches). A portfolio is built in this market according to different strategies and the pension fund offers a fixed guaranteed rate on a certain time horizon. We begin with well-known static risk measures (value at risk and conditional tail expectation measures) and then we consider their natural dynamic generalization. In order to be time consistent, we consider their iterated versions by a backward iterations scheme. Within the dynamic setting, we show that solvency capital can be expensive and that attention must be paid to the safety level considered.     

Risk–Return Profiles of Islamic Equities and Commodity Portfolios in Different Market Conditions

Motivated by the recent phenomenal growth in Islamic finance and the financialization of commodities, this study makes an initial attempt to investigate the risk–return profiles of optimized portfolios combining (a) Islamic equities with commodities and (b) conventional equities with commodities during the crises and noncrises periods. The findings tend to indicate that Islamic equity–commodity portfolios provide relatively higher diversification benefits than the conventional equity–commodity portfolios during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis triggered by the financial sector compared to the 2008 global financial crisis triggered by the real housing sector. The findings further suggest that except for a few cases, commodities in general and gold in particular improve diversification benefits.