Invader amphipods Gmelinoides fasciatus (Stebbing, 1899) inhabiting distant waterbodies demonstrate differences in tolerance and energy metabolism under elevated temperatures

Gmelinoides fasciatus is a successful invasive amphipod (Amphipoda, Crustacea) that dispersed from Lake Baikal to various waterbodies. Here we studied whether Baikal conditions are optimal for G. fasciatus in terms of thermotolerance and investigated lethal temperatures, 70 kDa heat shock protein level, energy metabolism, and antioxidant defense of animals from three geographically distant waterbodies under changing temperatures. We used acute heat exposure to 28 °C to assess the median lethal times and gradual temperature increase from 6 °C to determine the lethal temperatures. Mortality under heat shock was explainable by the baseline content of Hsp70 that correlated with thermal history. But it was not the case under gradual temperature increase where Hsp70 levels became similar and the mortality pattern changed. The most thermotolerant amphipods from the Gulf of Finland demonstrated a higher amount of free glucose during the temperature increase that may be related to the higher salinity of this waterbody and less energy required for ion regulation. Even though concentrations of major physiological ions in Lake Baikal are lower than in Lake Ladoga, G. fasciatus from Ladoga was slightly more sensitive to the gradual temperature increase. This difference could be explained by the influence of high levels of humic and other potentially toxic substances in Lake Ladoga indicated by increased activities of catalase and glutathione S-transferase. Importantly, all G. fasciatus populations accumulated relatively low levels of lactate during the temperature increase, which may reflect the ability of this invasive species to effectively maintain aerobic metabolism under various conditions.     

Estimating yield curves of the U.S. Treasury securities: An interpolation approach

Following the approach of interpolation, this paper proposes the multiple exponential decay model to fit yield curves for both the U.S. TIPS market and the conventional Treasury security market. Several estimation methods, including the unconstrained/constrained nonlinear minimization, quadratic programming, and the iterative linear least squares, are applied to estimate the unknown parameters according to different curve‐fitting purposes. Comparisons between the proposed model and the alternatives show that the multiple exponential decay successfully (1) adapts to a variety of shapes associated with yield curves, (2) (partially) keeps in line with the economic interpretations of Nelson–Siegel summarized by Diebold and Li ( 2006 ), and (3) dominates the competing models in curve‐fitting performance measured by mean fitted‐price errors over the sample period. In addition, the exact specification of a nonparametric interpolation model is pinned down by applying three statistical tools, which enable us to jointly take into account validity, optimality, and parsimoniousness of the proposed model.     

基于云概率密度分布估计的大坝监测数据分析

大坝运行监测易受自然环境和监测条件影响，存在时间和空间上的变异性，监测数据具有不确定性。以云理论的随机性和不确定性分析方法为基础，并与空间数据辐射思想相结合，建立了云滴概率密度分布估计模型，然后导出云概率密度分布函数，依据样本监测数据推求母体空间数据的分布特征，并设计了基于逆向云算法云变换的计算程序。分析陆浑水库1979~1999年测压管监测数据和位移变形数据的云概率密度分布特征和云数字特征，得出了20 a来大坝的数据分布特征和运行状态。监测数据分析结果表明，云概率密度分布估计不仅能有效合理地分析大坝的运行状态，而且能够依据云数字特征来判断监测状态和监测环境的异常变化。      

延迟退休年龄下隔代抚育与劳动参与的抉择*——基于工资收入随机性假定的研究

隔代抚育会对延迟退休年龄政策在促进劳动力供给上产生挤出效应。为了对此进行验证，本文在工资收入随机性的假定及延迟退休5年的情景下，模拟了面临孙辈照护需求的女性临近退休者提前退休所产生的福利变化。进一步，本文采用CHIP和CHARLS的微观调查数据，对不同群组的收入增长率和收入风险进行了估计，继而分析了当面临孙辈照护需求时这些收入特征对退休决策者制度退休和退休后劳动参与抉择产生的影响。总体上，在延迟退休年龄政策下，隔代抚育将对女性劳动力供给产生挤出效应。当面临孙辈照护需求时，女性临近退休者的制度退休抉择主要受自身收入增长率和收入风险的影响，收入增长率越低，或收入风险越高，她们提前退休的意愿就越强烈；制度退休后的劳动参与则更多地受子女收入增长率的影响，子女收入增长率越高，劳动参与的概率越低。     

Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection: Implications for Discount Window Stigma

I study the implications for central bank discount window stigma of a workhorse model of adverse selection in financial markets. In the model, firms (banks) need to borrow to finance a productive project. There is limited liability and firms have private information about their ability to repay their debts, which gives rise to the possibility of adverse selection. The central bank can ameliorate the impact of adverse selection by lending to firms. Discount window borrowing is observable and it may be taken as a signal of firms' credit worthiness. Under some conditions, firms borrowing from the discount window may pay higher interest rates to borrow in the market, a phenomenon often associated with the presence of stigma. I discuss these and other outcomes in detail and what they suggest about the relevance of stigma as an empirical phenomenon.     

高科技社会我国风险沟通重塑

高科技社会衍生“人为风险”，西方发达高科技国家倡导新型风险沟通，而后发场域由于系统落差，呈现出迟滞型风险沟通。通过构建全球化高科技风险社会、全球本地化风险沟通的新分析框架，发现高科技社会我国风险沟通面临着风险的社会放大、气泡结构、路径互动阙如、手段叠加、目标战略缺失、过程碎片化等迟滞困境。通过创新理念、吸纳型风险沟通、复合式路径、平衡化手段、连续统、政府学习和政府职能的“七位一体”再造，可有效重塑高科技社会我国风险沟通，推进国家风险治理体系和治理能力现代化。     

Larger,counter-intuitive and lasting – The PSM role in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic,exploring opportunities for theoretical and actionable advances

PSM has played an important role in the initial mitigation of risks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We explore the nature and scope of this role and develop a roadmap for PSM contributions towards greater supply chain resilience. We find that the role of PSM is (1) multidimensional; responding to supply risks but also to demand and logistics risks, (2) counter to game theory; collaboration increased instead of decrease, (3) multi-stage; beyond the initial response the hardest change efforts are still ahead. The pandemic is accelerating the journey towards future-proof PSM but not necessarily revolutionizing the future of PSM.     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

恢复邢台百泉泉水流量可行性研究

通过百泉泉区天然状态与超采状态下的水环境对比分析,并对岩溶水补给量和开采量进行计算,阐述恢复邢台百泉泉水流量的可行性,随着“引朱济邢”和“南水北调”供水工程的实施,邢台百泉水生态环境的恢复将变为现实。     

不同管距时玉米渗灌效果的试验研究

在运城市夹马口灌区和红旗灌区进行了1996,1997两个年度的玉米渗灌试验,研究了不同毛管间距条件下渗灌对其产量及水分生产率等的影响。结果表明,玉米渗灌毛管间距采用0.8~1.0 m较为适宜。毛管间距愈大,产量愈低;渗灌较地面灌平均减产7.23%,较旱地平均增产30.8%;玉米生长期内总耗水量地面灌最大,渗灌次之,旱地最小。渗灌可明显提高玉米水分生产率,渗灌处理水分生产率平均为1.65 kg/m3,是地面灌的1.2倍,是旱地的1.33倍;两年度渗灌较地面灌平均节水44.4%。