灰色季节性指数模型在蒸发预测中的应用

应用季节性指数法对GM(1,1)模型进行了改进,建立了灰色季节性指数模型,并将该模型应用于民勤绿洲季蒸发量预测中。计算结果表明,该模型在原始时间序列波动较大时,比普通GM(1,1)模型具有更好的适应性。     

Comparison and analysis of bare soil evaporation models combined with ASTER data in Heihe River Basin

Based on ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) remote sensing data, bare soil evaporation was estimated with the Penman-Monteith model, the Priestley-Taylor model, and the aerodynamics model. Evaporation estimated by each of the three models was compared with actual evaporation, and error sources of the three models were analyzed. The mean absolute relative error was 9% for the Penman-Monteith model, 14% for the Priestley-Taylor model, and 32% for the aerodynamics model; the Penman-Monteith model was the best of these three models for estimating bare soil evaporation. The error source of the Penman-Monteith model is the neglect of the advection estimation. The error source of the Priestley-Taylor model is the simplification of the component of aerodynamics as 0.72 times the net radiation. The error source of the aerodynamics model is the difference of vapor pressure and neglect of the radiometric component. The spatial distribution of bare soil evaporation is evident, and its main factors are soil water content and elevation.     

山西省水面蒸发初步分析

水面蒸发是反映当地蒸发能力的指标,分析其时空分布和特性。对区域水资源评价与规划十分重要。本文通过对山西省1980年-2000年水面蒸发资料的全面剖析,阐述了山西省水面蒸发量的特点。     

格尔木站陆上蒸发场迁移前后资料一致性分析

2003年7月前,格尔木站陆上水面蒸发观测场设在测站院墙外,为宽阔平坦无遮挡的戈壁滩;2003年8月因测站设施改造,将观测场由院外迁至院内.受遮挡率、风力等因素的影响,迁移后的院内观测资料与历年资料对比成果偏小,为使资料与历年资料保持一致性,具有代表性和可靠性,对该站蒸发观测场迁移时的平行观测资料进行对比分析.     

Chemical and Isotopic Tracer Evaluation of Water Mixing and Evaporation in a Dammed Texas River During Drought

The interaction between drought and river regulation is monitored to better understand river flow mixing, evaporation and surface‐groundwater exchange in changing regional climates and in increasingly regulated waterways. This study compared Brazos River stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δD) and electrical conductivity values with reservoir, creek and aquifer samples in the Brazos watershed, the largest watershed in Texas. The combination of tributaries, rainfall and the Brazos River Alluvium Aquifer, on the one hand, and the Lake Whitney reservoir, on the other hand, represent endmembers of dilute run‐off water and evaporated saline water, respectively. A simple isotope mixing model that uses monthly river discharge, Lake Whitney discharge, historical monthly precipitation δ¹⁸O and pan evaporation accurately reconstructs river δ¹⁸O (±0.5‰ on average). Data and isotope balance modelling support continued evaporation of ¹⁸O‐enriched Lake Whitney water as it flows downstream, although the most evaporation took place in Lake Whitney. The difference between river and precipitation δ¹⁸O, or Δ¹⁸O_RIV‐_PPT, here a measurement of degree of evaporation, ranged from ?0.1‰ for a small creek, to 1.7‰ for the Brazos River, to at least 2.7‰ in Lake Whitney. This study indicates that drought in regulated rivers may enhance reservoir discharge dominance in river flows during peak drought conditions when combined run‐off and baseflow dominance would be expected in a similar undammed river. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鄱阳湖流域水分盈亏时空变化特征分析

根据1960~2014年鄱阳湖流域13个气象站点的气象资料,采用FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和相关分析法,研究鄱阳湖流域水分盈亏量时空分布变化趋势及其与气象因子的关系。研究结果表明:鄱阳湖流域近55 a来水分盈亏量多年平均盈余为565.88 mm,空间上呈由西北向东北和由西南向东北逐渐递增的趋势;水分盈亏量年内分布呈秋季亏缺,其他季节盈余,水分盈余量表现为春季夏季冬季秋季;在研究时段内流域各地水分盈余量均呈增加趋势,但各季节水分盈余量变化存在一定的差异性,其中春季和秋季呈减少趋势,但趋势不明显,而夏季和冬季均呈显著的增加趋势(p0.05)。鄱阳湖流域水分盈亏量与降雨、日照时数和日最高气温关系密切,流域年水分盈余量的增加是由于夏季和冬季降水量的增加、日照数和风速的减少。     

TRANSIENT FLOW DRAINAGE EQUATIONS CONSIDERING BOTH DELAYED GRAVITY RESPONSE AND EVAPORATION FROM WATER TABLE

The drainable porosity is one of the important parameters in the unsteady drainage formulas. Due to delayed gravity response the drainable porosity is a function of the rate of drawdown and the depth of water table. The evaporation from groundwater plays an important role in lowering water table, in drainage design formulas it should be taken into account. Drainage equations considering evaporation from groundwater varying with water table depth and evaporation from water surface and involving constant drain-able porosity have been proposed by many authors. In this paper new formulas considering both delayed gravity yield and evaporation as a function of water table depth are developed and verified by experimental data.     

冰期河湖与大气的热交换模型

河湖与大气的热交换模型是计算分析冰凌形成、发展、消融时空变化规律的基础.基于现有太阳辐射、长波辐射、蒸发和对流模型研究成果,以现场冰情要素观测及历史天气资料为依据,建立了适用于冰期计算分析的河湖与大气的热交换非线性模型.提出了考虑晴天散射的太阳辐射计算模型,以Iziomon公式计算大气长波逆辐射,以俄罗斯冬季公式计算蒸...     

灰色季节性指数模型与神经网络模型在蒸发预测中的应用

在原GM(1,l)模型基础上采用滑动平均法进行季节因素修正,建立了灰色季节性指数模型,并将该模型与神经网络模型运用在海拉尔市季蒸发量预测中。计算结果表明,修正后的模型与神经网络模型在拟合既含趋势变动,又含季节因素的时间序列预测中,比普通GM(1,1)模型具有更好的适应性,具有较好的效果。     

Changes of Pan Evaporation in the Recent 40 Years in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Based on monitoring data of 123 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2000 near or in the Yellow River Basin, the spatial and temporal distributions and their trends for pan evaporation (PE) are investigated in this study. The results indicate that, despite the annual mean air temperature over the Yellow River Basin has, on average, increased by 0.6° over the past 40 years, the rate of PE has steadily decreased, especially in summer and spring. Compared with the period of 1960s to 1970s, the rate of annual pan evaporation during 1980s to 1990s has decreased by 126mm or 7.0 percent. Spatial distribution of the rate of change show that this kind of trend is general but not universal, PE has significantly decreased over the upper and lower reaches of the Yellow River, but increased to a small degree over the middle reaches. Further analyses show that the decrease of PE is mainly related to reductions in sunshine durations and solar irradiance, owing to more clouds and aerosols.