渭河上游河川径流演变特性分析

为了研究渭河上游径流演变特性,以林家村等5个水文站近50 a的实测径流序列为基础,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法(M-K法)和R/S法分析了径流演变趋势。结果表明：渭河上游径流年内分配在20世纪50年代较为集中,60~90年代相对均匀;径流年际变化较大;径流量总体呈下降趋势,且趋势性较为显著。研究成果为渭河流域水资源开发利用、调度管理和生态环境保护提供一定参考。     

基于肯德尔法的丹江口水库水质演变趋势研究

为准确把握丹江口水库近5 a来水质变化趋势,有效指导库区的水资源保护和水污染防治工作,采用季节性肯德尔检验法对水库主要污染因子的演变趋势进行了分析研究。结果表明,汉江白河断面TP指标呈现出高度显著增加趋势,丹江湘河断面CODMn指标呈现出显著减少趋势,库中陶岔、凉水河和坝上断面高锰酸盐指数显著增加,浪河口下和坝上断面总磷指标也显著增加。水库水质主要受几条入库支流水质影响,不同支流的主要污染物和来源不同,应采取不同的水污染防控措施。     

环保型水处理药剂应用现状及发展趋势

分析我国水处理药剂发展面临的机遇,阐述环保型水处理药剂的应用现状,认为水处理药剂在混凝理论不断创新的坚实基础上,将向绿色水处理药剂、多元复合水处理药剂和纳米材料、微生物絮凝剂等新型高效水处理药剂的方向高速发展。     

桂林市青狮潭水库入库径流变化分析

采用极值比和变差系数分析桂林市青狮潭水库1958—1995年入库径流量的年际变化特征,采用距平百分率法和Kendall秩次相关法分析入库径流变化趋势。分析表明,洪水期径流年际变化最剧烈,枯水期径流年际变化最小;年径流、雨期径流、洪水期径流和枯水期径流均呈增加趋势,但趋势不显著。     

论油田企业质量技术监督特点及发展趋势

从论述油田企业发展与质量技术监督的关系入手，阐述了石油工业质量技术监督工作的发展历史：分析了油田企业质量技术监督的特点，提出 了油田企业质量技术监督的趋势。认为：质量技术监督管理机构和技术检测机构的双重建设将得到进一步加强；建立施工作业质量监督与监理制度，实施勘探开发工程项目监理体制和运行体制，将成为油田企业积极探索并必须取得突破的一大课题。     

航空燃油市场的发展趋势

国际航空燃油市场虽然持续供于求，但是中国持续出现需求缺口，我们调研了中国国内航空燃油生产商和分销机构等，采用规范和实证的分析方法，提出了一些重要结论：中国航空燃油生产和供给成本高，资源配置效率有待进一步提高，航空燃油需求继续旺盛，新世纪里的十年几需求缺口可能进一步扩大。     

中国金融控股集团发展：分业还是混业？

中国的金融控股集团可界定为跨业经营,再加上金融企业资产的弱专用性,因此现有金融管理体制下存在金融控股集团发展的空间。但本文分析认为金融控股集团的经营前景不能确定,应积极、审慎地发展。     

Environment–strategy co‐evolution and co‐alignment: a staged model of Chinese SOEs under transition

Economic reform in China has attracted growing attention from around the world owing to its significance for theory and practice. What has been largely missing in the literature is the temporal dimension, i.e., the changes over time in key variables such as organizational environment, firm strategic adaptations, and the performance implications. In this study, we investigate environment and strategic adaptations 12 years after Tan and Litschert examined these issues in 1990. Following a staged model, the study found that (1) organizational environment and firm strategic adaptations have co‐evolved over time, (2) a new configuration has emerged and is related to improved performance, and (3) such a relationship is moderated by the stage during transition in which firms were founded. Specifically, firms founded since 1990 are more proactive and innovative than firms that had existed in the previous stage. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data

Inflation expectations play a key role in determining future economic outcomes. The associated uncertainty provides a direct gauge of how well‐anchored the inflation expectations are. We construct a model‐based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty by augmenting a standard unobserved components model of inflation with information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations obtained from financial markets. This new model‐based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty is more accurately estimated and can provide valuable information for policymakers. Using U.S. data, we find significant changes in inflation expectations uncertainty during the Great Recession.     

Monetary Policy,Trend Inflation,and Unemployment Volatility

The literature has long agreed that the DMP model (after Diamond 1982, Mortensen 1982, Pissarides 1985) with search and matching frictions in the labor market can deliver large volatilities in labor market quantities, consistent with empirical data, only if there is at least some wage stickiness. I show, however, that the model can deliver nontrivial volatilities without wage stickiness, as long as it has price dispersion and nonzero long‐run inflation rates. I find that by keeping inflation at a positive rate, monetary policy may be accountable for the large standard deviations observed on labor market variables. In addition, the Shimer (2005) puzzle disappears under monetary policy shocks.