基于拉格朗日粒子追踪的渤海冬季与夏季环流及影响因素

基于三维非结构有限体积海洋模式(FVCOM)对渤海环流进行了数值模拟研究.数值模拟中采用三角形网格,以更好地拟合渤海复杂的岸线边界.潮位、潮流、温盐模拟结果验证良好.通过对粒子的拉格朗日追踪研究了渤海冬季与夏季环流及潮、风、海气热交换和人海径流对渤海环流的影响.研究表明:粒子输移存在明显的三维结构;与渤海中部及海峡附近...     

坝王河羡塘至大井、小井河段开发方式研究

针对坝王河流域忽明忽暗、明伏交替、落水洞遍布、地下暗河系统发育等强喀斯特特点,拟对羡塘至大井、小井河段的开发采取分段开发的思路,上河段为合理规避河段喀斯特渗漏问题,采用长隧洞引水方式;下河段为避开地下暗河系统和渗漏河段,选择成库条件较为可靠的坝址和引水线路较短的开发方案.其工程经验可供类似流域开发借鉴.     

Computer Support for Implementation of a Systemic Approach to Water Conflict Resolution

Abstract

Water is an important factor in conflicts among stakeholders at the local, regional, and even international level. Water conflicts have taken many forms, but they almost always arise from the fact that the freshwater resources of the world are not partitioned to match the political borders, nor are they evenly distributed in space and time. Two or more countries share the watersheds of 261 major rivers and nearly half of the land area of the world is in international river basins. Water has been used as a military and political goal. Water has been a weapon of war, and water systems have been targets during the war. A systemic approach has been taken in this research to approach resolution of conflicts over water. By helping stakeholders to explore and resolve the underlying structural causes of conflict our approach offers a significant opportunity for its resolution. We define the five main functional activities for assisting the conflict resolution process as: (i) communication; (ii) problem formulation; (iii) data gathering and information generation; (iv) information sharing; and (v) evaluation of consequences. A computerized technical support is developed in the form of the Conflict Resolution Support System (CRSS) for implementation of a systemic approach to water conflicts. Its principal components include an artificial intelligence-based communication system, a database management system, and a model base management system. At this stage of the development, the model base management system consists of tools for multipurpose reservoir operation, river flow routing, multi-criteria decision-making, spatial data analysis, and other general utilities. A hypothetical river basin with potential conflict between stakeholders with respect to water sharing and flood control is used to demonstrate the utility of the new approach and the computer system developed for its implementation.     

水的生态服务功能内涵与 评价方法初探

从水的生态服务功能的机理出发,深入剖析了其内涵与水的两层次生态服务结构,并在此基础上构建评价水的生态服务功能的指标体系,介绍了评价流域水的生态服务功能的主要方法;最后提出了维系流域水的生态服务功能主要思路与手段,为水的生态服务功能研究提供了新思路与新方法。     

A physical approach of the short-term wind power prediction based on CFD pre-calculated flow fields

A physical approach of the wind power prediction based on the CFD pre-calculated flow fields is proposed in this paper. The flow fields are obtained based on a steady CFD model with the discrete inflow wind conditions as the boundary conditions, and a database is established containing the important parameters including the inflow wind conditions, the flow fields and the corresponding wind power for each wind turbine. The power is predicted via the database by taking the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) wind as the input data. In order to evaluate the approach, the short-term wind power prediction for an actual wind farm is conducted as an example during the period of the year 2010. Compared with the measured power, the predicted results enjoy a high accuracy with the annual Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 15.2% and the annual MAE of 10.80%. A good performance is shown in predicting the wind power’s changing trend. This approach is independent of the historical data and can be widely used for all kinds of wind farms including the newly-built wind farms. At the same time, it does not take much computation time while it captures the local air flows more precisely by the CFD model. So it is especially practical for engineering projects.     

桃花江航运枢纽整体水力学试验研究

桃花江旅游景观船闸在布置上因受到枢纽地形与河道防洪的限制,难以满足规范要求.采用几何比尺为1∶25的整体水工模型进行了试验研究,2座枢纽的控制运行条件均为最高通航水位组合,主河道中流速较大,特别是上下游口门处引航道的横向流速较大,不能满足规范要求.修改方案主要通过减小2座船闸上下游引航道与桃花江主河道夹角,并对口门附近地形进行了相应的疏浚.试验结果表明,修改方案有效降低了2座船闸上游口门处横向流速等不利因素.     

滑坡滑动前后稳定性分析及治理方案

某水电站引水线路通过一高阶地前缘滑坡体,前期勘察时对该滑坡稳定性进行过稳定分析,但未作有效支挡处理,渠道施工开挖2 a后发生滑动,对渠道造成严重破坏,并推迟发电日期。滑动后对滑坡体进行了勘察和稳定性分析,估算出支挡结构断面处的下滑推力,并提出治理建议,为滑坡治理设计提供了可靠依据。     

内部评级法在国内商业银行实施的本土化研究

内部评级法的实施需要建立在一定的前提基础之上,中国目前的实施条件还存在一定的缺陷,因此如何在内部评级体系的构建过程中体现本土化的原则将成为有效实施的关键。中国特有的金融生态决定了地区之间的金融风险差异较大,因此在具体实施过程中,应将地区金融风险差异作为调整系数对内部评级法的评级结果进行调整。中国的商业银行尚处于内部评级法实施的准备或开始阶段,受实施条件和金融生态的限制,本土化将是一个长期的、渐进的创新过程。本土化并不仅仅是内部评级法相关标准的本地化应用,同时也要求在这一过程中有创造性地发挥内部评级法对银行风险管理的积极作用。     

商业银行分支机构绩效评价系统的设计与实证分析

本文回顾了商业银行分支机构绩效评价理论的发展和实践现状,从追踪战略实施效果和评价流程角度建立了一套完善的绩效评价系统。具体包括按照商业银行经营的安全性、流动性、盈利性和发展性要求建立了基本指标及其修正体系,并引入评议指标完善评价体系;运用Delphi法和AHP相结合的方法设置权重;借鉴分段函数取代传统直线型处理“倒U型”指标的不利做法;基于相对绩效评价思想,建立了评价标准体系和功效系数法评价模型;并以某商业银行为例进行了实证分析。最后给出了本文研究的局限性和后续研究建议,并特别就引入效率评价维度来完善绩效评价系统设计进行了比较分析。     

Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm‐quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricing‐error and return‐prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.