考虑加筋切向阻力的土坡稳定分析

目前在加筋边坡的极限平衡稳定分析中,认为加筋中产生的预应力能约束土体的运动或者能使抵抗土体运动的阻力增加,而对于加筋的切向阻力作用却没有考虑。主要讨论了在加筋土坡稳定分析时,加筋的切向阻力在加筋工程中起到的作用。认为在加筋边坡的极限平衡稳定分析中,也应考虑加筋的切向阻力作用;提出了计算公式,编制了相应的程序,给出了算例。     

Inferential Causal Models: Integrating Quality & Quantity

In-depth data analysis plus statistical modeling can produce inferentialcausal models. Their creation thus combines aspects of analysis by close inspection,that is, reason analysis and cross-tabular analysis, with statistical analysis procedures,especially those that are special cases of the generalized linear model (McCullaghand Nelder, 1989; Agresti, 1996; Lindsey, 1997). This paper explores some of the roots of this combined method and suggests some new directions. An exercise clarifies some limitations of classic reason analysis by showing how the cross tabulation of variables with controls for test factors may produce better inferences. Then, given the cross tabulation of several variables, by explicating Coleman effect parameters, logistic regressions, and Poisson log-linear models, it shows how generalized linear models provide appropriate measures of effects and tests of statistical significance. Finally, to address a weakness of reason analysis, a case-control design is proposed and an example is developed.     

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY ANALYSIS IN LDCs

Abstract. The use of CGE models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in LDCs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics. In this survey, the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted. The evolution of CGE modelling is discussed and more than 60 CGE applications related to different policy issues in LDCs are surveyed. This comprehensive survey shows that the CGE models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in LDCs over the last decade or so. The debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using CGE models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper. Some of the criticisms levelled at CGE models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems.     

A Nonstandard Approach to Option Pricing

Nonstandard probability theory and stochastic analysis, as developed by Loeb, Anderson, and Keisler, has the attractive feature that it allows one to exploit combinatorial aspects of a well-understood discrete theory in a continuous setting. We illustrate this with an example taken from financial economics: a nonstandard construction of the well-known Black-Scholes option pricing model allows us to view the resulting object at the same time as both (the hyperfinite version of) the binomial Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model (that is, a hyperfinite geometric random walk) and the continuous model introduced by Black and Scholes (a geometric Brownian motion). Nonstandard methods provide a means of moving freely back and forth between the discrete and continuous points of view. This enables us to give an elementary derivation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula from the corresponding formula for the binomial model. We also devise an intuitive but rigorous method for constructing self-financing hedge portfolios for various contingent claims, again using the explicit constructions available in the hyperfinite binomial model, to give the portfolio appropriate to the Black-Scholes model. Thus, nonstandard analysis provides a rigorous basis for the economists' intuitive notion that the Black-Scholes model contains a built-in version of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model.     

基于个体理性的水资源需求与节约的博弈分析

明确水资源是一种“池塘资源”,而不是纯公共资源,也不是私人资源,水资源的开采具有排他性和竞争性。应用简单的博弈模型分析理性个体的行为特点,提出在产权关系不明确、政府缺乏激励机制的情况下,水资源会出现开采过度和节约不足现象。     

对索风营水电站坝址区堆积体勘察设计的几点认识

乌江索风营水电站坝址区分布有7个堆积体,其成因有崩塌堆积、蠕变-拉裂-崩解堆积、塌滑堆积及混和堆积等.在勘察过程中采用了地质测绘、钻探、硐探、物探、科研试验等多种勘察方法与手段,在勘察成果基础上对堆积体稳定性进行了分析,并结合对工程的不同影响提出了相应的工程处理措施.     

Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process

This article formulates a bivariate point process to jointlyanalyze trade and quote arrivals. In microstructure models,trades may reveal private information that is then incorporatedinto new price quotes. This article examines the speed of thisinformation flow and the circumstances that govern it. A jointlikelihood function for trade and quote arrivals is specifiedin a way that recognizes that an intervening trade sometimescensors the time between a trade and the subsequent quote. Modelsof trades and quotes are estimated for eight stocks using Tradeand Quote database (TAQ) data. The essential finding for thearrival of price quotes is that information flow variables,such as high trade arrival rates, large volume per trade, andwide bid–ask spreads, all predict more rapid price revisions.This means prices respond more quickly to trades when informationis flowing so that the price impacts of trades and ultimatelythe volatility of prices are high in such circumstances.     

塔里木河流域源流及干流水均衡分析

通过对塔里木河流域源流及干流的径流变化和水均衡分析 ,表明塔里木河源流来水基本稳定 ,由于源流灌区引水以及渗漏蒸发等损失加剧 ,干流水量存在减少趋势 ,并加剧了水量的时间分配不均 ,不利于干流农业的可持续发展和生态环境的维护与改善     

大伙房水库输水工程隧洞结构应力仿真分析

应用有限元法对辽宁省大伙房水库输水工程主体隧洞结构进行了仿真分析,从而得到隧洞结构的应力分布规律,研究确定薄弱部位并采取相应的稳定措施,以便保证隧洞施工的安全与经济。     

仓储诊断分析研究

通过对仓储运作的调查诊断，来定义仓储操作中拥有广泛基础的可持续发展的优先管理权。以让每个企业能更方便的发现自身仓储操作中的问题，重新检查自身的库存系统，建设一套符合企业自身特点的仓储管理系统。