凝土温度特性参数反分析及其应用

建立混凝土温度场材料特性参数反演分析模型,并用有限单元法仿真计算和可变容差法编制了优化反演程序。数值算例表明该算法是稳定的,收敛速度较快,并给出具体的在建工程实例的应用情况。通过现场温度观测值,进行优化反演计算得到混凝土温度的有关特性参数,这将成为部分或全部替代仅靠实验室选取参数的行之有效的途径之一。     

Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder

Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT).     

电液同步控制筒阀在小浪底水电厂的应用

小浪底水电厂位于多泥沙的黄河干流上，水轮机活动导叶会因磨损过大而严重漏水，在水轮机的设计上必须考虑这个因素;同时，为适应混水发电，小浪底水电厂机组采用了筒阀。文中介绍了筒阀的结构特点、功能及控制原理等，并对其在现场的实际应用情况进行了分析。     

考虑加筋切向阻力的土坡稳定分析

目前在加筋边坡的极限平衡稳定分析中,认为加筋中产生的预应力能约束土体的运动或者能使抵抗土体运动的阻力增加,而对于加筋的切向阻力作用却没有考虑。主要讨论了在加筋土坡稳定分析时,加筋的切向阻力在加筋工程中起到的作用。认为在加筋边坡的极限平衡稳定分析中,也应考虑加筋的切向阻力作用;提出了计算公式,编制了相应的程序,给出了算例。     

Inferential Causal Models: Integrating Quality & Quantity

In-depth data analysis plus statistical modeling can produce inferentialcausal models. Their creation thus combines aspects of analysis by close inspection,that is, reason analysis and cross-tabular analysis, with statistical analysis procedures,especially those that are special cases of the generalized linear model (McCullaghand Nelder, 1989; Agresti, 1996; Lindsey, 1997). This paper explores some of the roots of this combined method and suggests some new directions. An exercise clarifies some limitations of classic reason analysis by showing how the cross tabulation of variables with controls for test factors may produce better inferences. Then, given the cross tabulation of several variables, by explicating Coleman effect parameters, logistic regressions, and Poisson log-linear models, it shows how generalized linear models provide appropriate measures of effects and tests of statistical significance. Finally, to address a weakness of reason analysis, a case-control design is proposed and an example is developed.     

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY ANALYSIS IN LDCs

Abstract. The use of CGE models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in LDCs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics. In this survey, the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted. The evolution of CGE modelling is discussed and more than 60 CGE applications related to different policy issues in LDCs are surveyed. This comprehensive survey shows that the CGE models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in LDCs over the last decade or so. The debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using CGE models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper. Some of the criticisms levelled at CGE models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems.     

A Nonstandard Approach to Option Pricing

Nonstandard probability theory and stochastic analysis, as developed by Loeb, Anderson, and Keisler, has the attractive feature that it allows one to exploit combinatorial aspects of a well-understood discrete theory in a continuous setting. We illustrate this with an example taken from financial economics: a nonstandard construction of the well-known Black-Scholes option pricing model allows us to view the resulting object at the same time as both (the hyperfinite version of) the binomial Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model (that is, a hyperfinite geometric random walk) and the continuous model introduced by Black and Scholes (a geometric Brownian motion). Nonstandard methods provide a means of moving freely back and forth between the discrete and continuous points of view. This enables us to give an elementary derivation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula from the corresponding formula for the binomial model. We also devise an intuitive but rigorous method for constructing self-financing hedge portfolios for various contingent claims, again using the explicit constructions available in the hyperfinite binomial model, to give the portfolio appropriate to the Black-Scholes model. Thus, nonstandard analysis provides a rigorous basis for the economists' intuitive notion that the Black-Scholes model contains a built-in version of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model.     

基于个体理性的水资源需求与节约的博弈分析

明确水资源是一种“池塘资源”,而不是纯公共资源,也不是私人资源,水资源的开采具有排他性和竞争性。应用简单的博弈模型分析理性个体的行为特点,提出在产权关系不明确、政府缺乏激励机制的情况下,水资源会出现开采过度和节约不足现象。     

对索风营水电站坝址区堆积体勘察设计的几点认识

乌江索风营水电站坝址区分布有7个堆积体,其成因有崩塌堆积、蠕变-拉裂-崩解堆积、塌滑堆积及混和堆积等.在勘察过程中采用了地质测绘、钻探、硐探、物探、科研试验等多种勘察方法与手段,在勘察成果基础上对堆积体稳定性进行了分析,并结合对工程的不同影响提出了相应的工程处理措施.