边境地区民族文化旅游业发展探析——以德宏傣族景颇族自治州为例

文章将民族地区文化旅游业的发展放到边疆这一特定的环境中来加以探析。并以云南德宏的文化旅游业的发展为例,探讨了德宏民族文化旅游业的现状及存在的问题,文化旅游业的发展如何直接影响到经济的增长,以及在全球化背景下,云南德宏边境民族文化旅游业所面临的机遇与挑战。     

On the determinants of trade in services: evidence from the MENA region

This article examines the determinants of aggregate flows of service trade in MENA countries using an adapted version of the gravity model and a panel data set covering the 2000 to 2009 period for 21 countries and 10 sectors. A new determinant of trade performance is introduced: the number of bound commitments undertaken by a sector in the WTO as well as the availability of those commitments by mode of supply. The results show that being a WTO member boosts trade in services. In addition, the number of bound commitments increases exports, imports and trade in services. This positive and significant effect remains robust even after controlling for several econometric issues, namely, the selection bias related to the WTO membership and the endogeneity of commitments.¹1. We are grateful to the editor Mark Taylor and two anonymous referees for providing valuable comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank the participants to the ERF 18th Annual Conference and to the 32nd Annual Meeting of the Middle East Economic Association (MEEA). This work benefited from the financial support of Economics Research Forum (ERF). It does not reflect the Forum’s opinion.     

Spatial income and public capital: a case of a Spanish region

The objective of this paper is to analyse major determinants of disposable per capita income at a local municipality level for a territory of Spain: the Valencian region. A cross-sectional spatial study for an averaged period (2010–2013) will allow us to control for intraregional correlation, paying special attention to the role of real public investment and its possible effects on disposable personal income. A reference framework for economic and social policymakers will be provided by the specification of the model.     

皖江城市跨江发展实证研究：基于偏离-份额模型

2011年安徽省行政区划调整,皖江城市迈入了跨江发展的新时代。运用基尼系数和地理联系率分析皖江城市非均衡的发展现状,行政区划调整优化了资源配置,皖江城市三次产业非均衡性显著改善。行政区划调整后,皖江城市也具备了跨江发展基础。运用偏离-份额模型分析皖江城市跨江发展城市,芜湖、马鞍山、铜陵是最佳跨江发展的城市,第二产业成为跨江发展主要拉动力。     

Linkage between international trade and economic growth in GCC countries: Empirical evidence from PMG estimation approach

This paper explores the empirical evidence of the links between economic growth and openness to international trade by controlling for auxiliary variables in the model for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the annual sample period 1980–2010. After testing for cointegration based on a recent bootstrap panel test, we employ the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique of M.H. Pesaran, Y. Shin, and R. Smith (1999. “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94: 621–634) that is appropriate for drawing sharper conclusions in dynamic heterogeneous panels by considering long-run equilibrium relations. The results show evidence of cointegration relationship between the variables of interest, and reveal that economic growth responds positively to trade openness over both the short run and long run. The evidence is robust to using various trade openness measures and to alternative model specifications, suggesting thus the non-fragility of the linkage between economic growth and openness to international trade for the GCC region. Our findings are then promising and support the view that economic growth is directly and robustly linked to trade openness for the GCC countries.     

塔里木盆地南缘地区沙产业发展现状，存在问题和发展对策研究--以和田地区为例

塔里木盆地南缘的和田地区位于新疆维吾尔自治区南部,塔克拉玛干大沙漠南缘,光热资源丰富、生物资源种类多、未利用土地和沙漠面积广大,为沙产业发展提供了充足的环境条件和空间。从而充分利用沙区的有利条件,大规模发展多采光、少用水、高效益、新技术为特点的阳光农业,具有巨大的潜力。本文通过分析发展沙产业的优势,系统探讨沙产业发展的现状及存在的问题,并提出了沙产业发展的对策。     

Experimental study and simulations of infiltration in evapotranspiration landfill covers

Various cover systems have been designed for landfill sites in order to minimize infiltration (percolation) into the underlying waste.This study evaluated the soil water balance performance of evapotranspiration covers (ET covers) and simulated percolation in the systems using the active region model (ARM).Experiments were conducted to measure water flow processes and water balance components in a bare soil cover and different ET covers.Results showed that vegetation played a critical role in controlling the water balance of the ET covers.In soil profiles of 60-cm depth with and without vegetation cover,the maximum soil water storage capacities were 97.2 mm and 62.8 mm,respectively.The percolation amount in the bare soil was 2.1 times that in the vegetation-covered soil.The ARM simulated percolation more accurately than the continuum model because it considered preferential flow.Numerical simulation results also indicated that using the ET cover system was an effective way of removing water through evapotranspiration,thus reducing percolation.     

Application of spatially varying storage capacity model for runoff parameterization in semi-arid catchment

This paper introduces the method of designation of water storage capacity for each grid cell within a catchment, which considers topography, vegetation and soil synthetically. For the purpose of hydrological process simulation in semi-arid regions, a spatially varying storage capacity (VSC) model was developed based on the spatial distribution of water storage capacity and the vertical hybrid runoff mechanism. To verify the applicability of the VSC model, both the VSC model and a hybrid runoff model were used to simulate daily runoff processes in the catchment upstream of the Dianzi hydrological station from 1973 to 1979. The results showed that the annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.80 for the VSC model, and only 0.67 for the hybrid runoff model. The higher annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of the VSC model means that this hydrological model can better simulate daily runoff processes in semi-arid regions. Furthermore, as a distributed hydrological model, the VSC model can be applied in regional water resource management.     

欠发达地区物流与区域经济发展协同度评价模型

为测度区域物流与区域经济的协同发展水平,在分析区域物流与区域经济发展协同效应的基础上,从系统分析的角度选取反映物流基础设施、物流发展规模、物流发展潜力的12个区域物流子系统的序参量和反映经济结构、经济总量和经济效益的11个区域经济子系统的序参量,应用系统协同度测度序参量方法,构建区域物流与区域经济发展的协同度评价模型,并将模型应用于黑龙江区域物流与区域经济协同发展水平测度。结果表明,黑龙江区域物流与区域经济协同度呈增减交替的M型发展趋势,总体处于低水平协同状态。     

时间序列分析在四平地区地下水水位预报中的应用

本文对四平地区地下水水位观测资料进行了分析,运用时间序列分析方法建立了地下水位预报模型.首先对序列提取了趋势项和周期项,然后利用自回归(AR)模型建立了随机模型,将三者进行线性叠加便得到地下水水位预报模型,最后对已建立的模型进行检验.结果表明,所建立的地下水水位预报模型,具有较高的精度.