渠道发展新动态及成因分析

归纳新的市场条件下渠道发展的新动态,并从多个维度分析了这些新动态产生的原因,以便为企业的渠道设计决策和渠道管理决策提供参考。     

Has Inflation Persistence Changed under EMU?

This paper analyzes the persistence of inflation in the euro area and, in particular, whether the persistence properties have changed since the start of European Monetary Union(EMU). For that purpose, we compare pre‐ and post‐EMU inflation persistence, use rolling‐window estimates of persistence, and apply tests specifically designed to detect break dates near the end of the sample period. In contrast to previous research, we find that inflation persistence has fallen significantly since the start of EMU. Persistence of consumer price inflation, which is central to the European Central Bank's policy mandate, has fallen more than the persistence of deflator inflation. The drop in inflation persistence is consistent with the results from a simulated small New Keynesian model with a shift toward a more aggressive monetary policy stance.     

A Theory of Mergers and Merger Waves

We consider a sequential merger game between Cournot firms with homogeneous product and quadratic cost. A large slope of the marginal cost function or a small slope of inverse market demand are both predicted to increase the incentive to merge. The profitability of any merger increases with the number of mergers having already taken place. Thus, mergers tend to occur in waves in industries that have experienced exogenous shocks affecting firms’ cost or demand. We also show some mergers that are not profitable for merged firms in the short-run may take place in the early stage of a wave.     

中国金融发展与外贸关系的面板协整检验和因果分析

基于跨省面板数据,运用面板协整理论和面板因果检验方法分析了中国金融发展与对外贸易之间的关系.多种协整检验方法一致表明,金融发展与出口贸易、金融发展与进口贸易之间都存在长期均衡稳定关系;而基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果检验则表明金融发展与对外贸易之间同时存在长、短期双向因果关系.这意味着在金融深化改革和贸易增长方式调整的特殊历史时期,保持金融和贸易政策的有效组合具有十分重要的意义.     

煤层气水平井煤层判识技术的研究与应用

通过几十口井的钻探实践,总结出了一套通过各种技术手段对煤层进行判断、识别的方法,可为今后利用多分支水平井钻井技术开发煤层气提供经验。     

孤东油田水平井打捞优化技术

长期以来,孤东由于水平井特殊的井身结构,作业打捞井下落物这个"疑难杂症"一直被视为作业施工中难啃的硬骨头,水平井水平段内的落鱼打捞(特别是滤砂管打捞)作业是一个难题,由于造斜段的原因,井口上提力、扭矩等无法全部传递到井下水平段内,因此常规打捞措施无法实施。为了突破水平井作业施工中的"瓶颈",从现场出发,对水平井管柱受力及打捞难点进行分析,对打捞工具选择、工具尺寸进行优化,管柱进行了优选,满足现场打捞需要。     

ON THE PRICE EFFECTS OF HORIZONTAL MERGERS: A THEORETICAL INTERPRETATION

Horizontal mergers are usually under the scrutiny of antitrust authorities due to their potential undesirable effects on prices and consumer surplus. Ex‐post evidence, however, suggests that these effects do not always take place and even relevant mergers may end up having negligible price effects. The analysis of mergers in the context of non‐localized spatial competition may offer a further interpretation to the ones proposed in the literature: in this framework both positive and zero price effects are possible outcomes of the merger activity.     

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION ABOUT PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION

We introduce asymmetric information about consumers’ transportation costs (i.e., the degree of product differentiation) in the model of Hotelling. When transportation costs are high, both firms have lower profits with asymmetric information than with perfect information. Contrarily, if transportation costs are low, both firms may prefer the asymmetric information scenario (the informed firm always prefers the informational advantage, while the uninformed firm may or may not prefer to remain uninformed). Information exchange is ex‐ante advantageous for both firms, but ex‐post damaging if transportation costs turn out to be low. If the information is unverifiable, the informed firm does not represent a reliable source of information, since it always prefers to announce that transportation costs are high and there is no contract that induces truthful revelation.     

美中贸易收支与人民币汇率关系:实证分析

针对美中贸易收支与人民币汇率问题,经研究发现,汇率变动对贸易收支的影响是值得怀疑的,仅仅依靠人民币汇率变动是无法解决美中贸易逆差问题的。1994—2002年年度数据实证显示,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率(名义或实际汇率)之间没有稳定的关系;1998—2003年月度数据计量表明,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且,依据美中两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。因此,“人民币升值论”或许更多的是基于政治而非经济因素,人民币汇率浮动并不能解决美中贸易逆差问题。     

人参细胞工程研究概况

本文就人参细胞工程方面，对前人所做的工作和取得的成就进行了分类和综述，为人参细胞工程的进一步研究提供了一定的理论参考。