南水北调中线总干渠水头优化分配

南水北调中线总干渠渠道线路长,建筑物数量大、类型多,进行水头优化分配对于节省工程投资,合理的进行总干渠工程布置有着重要的意义.通过优化计算,提出了总干渠水头优化分配方案,确定了3个渠段之间的水头分配值以及各段内分段渠道和各个建筑物的水头分配值,并对方案进行了验证.     

转型与经济信息生产方式的演化创新

一定制度下的经济信息生产方式是决定其资源配置效率的重要基础。从制度或资源配置方式的转型角度,分析了经济信息生产方式与一定制度下资源配置的效率关系;指出与传统自由市场经济相对应的现行的会计、统计理论方法及其制度属于经济信息个体性生产方式,不适应以混合经济为特征的现代市场经济对经济信息的需求;最后以现代市场经济的混合经济特征为基点,从市场经济活动的广泛联系性、经济信息的公共物品性和满足社会需求出发,提出了建立经济信息社会化生产方式与制度模式的构想。     

锯片制造车间设施规划浅析

分析了锯片制造业中因设施规划不合理,导致物料搬运成本上升的问题,依据设施规划的原则对锯片车间的重新布局方式作了系统的阐述,并提出了三种规划方案。     

峰荷需求、资本配置效率与中国网络型基础产业投融资机制改革——对阿弗奇-约翰逊模型的一个扩展

阿弗奇—约翰逊模型(A—J模型)表明规制对象具有过度使用资本倾向,相应的实证检验中同时存在肯定和否定的结果,但基本的A—J模型、已有扩展和实证检验都忽略了受规制行业的峰荷需求特征。本文从基本的A—J模型出发,假定生产要素单位使用成本与规制机构所认可的单位核算成本不同,考察了峰荷需求特征下受规制网络型基础产业的投资行为,提供了资本配置效率的衡量标准。本文的基本结论在于,峰荷需求条件下受规制企业不一定投资过多,这也解释了为何A—J效应的实证检验存在相互矛盾的结果。     

长治市水资源优化配置及对策

文中介绍了长治市水资源的特点和水资源开发利用现状，并总结了长治市水资源开发利用中存在的问题。针对性地提出了合理配置水资源、建设节水型社会、开发新水源、建立高效运行管理体制、运用市场经济机制以及改革现行的水价政策等一系列措施．从而实现全市水资源的优化配置和合理使用，促进全市经济的全面发展。     

The influence of accountability on overconfidence and resistance to change: A research framework and experimental evidence

This paper presents a research framework and demonstrates how commitment to a particular course of action might lead to information search that is biased in favour of the chosen alternative. The framework also incorporates accountability as a strategy for mitigating overconfidence and resistance to change.An experiment was conducted to test the predictions of the proposed framework. Results of the experiment indicate that commitment to a particular cost allocation system leads to increased desirability of the chosen system and decreased desirability of the rejected alternative. The results also show that managers who are committed to a particular cost allocation system become too conservative and overconfident in their preferred system, which leads to high resistance to change. These effects, however, were attenuated by making the managers accountable for the negative consequences of their decisions.     

基于IFMOP的玉环市区域水资源配置

引入无概率分布的区间数表示不确定性影响范围,选取经济效益、供需水效率和COD排放量分别构建经济目标、社会目标和环境目标优化函数,构建了玉环市不确定性模糊多目标规划(IFMOP)水资源配置模型,并计算了不确定性解集。结果表明:IFMOP配置计算成果可实现玉环市区域水量水质协调高效利用和社会-经济-生态系统均衡发展;在75%来水保证率下各行业配置总水量不确定性范围为14 375万~15 154万m³。IFMOP水资源配置模型在信息不充分的条件下能够全面使用各类数据信息进行水资源配置,更好地满足水资源在各行业配置过程中的动态管理需求。     

基于多维产出ZSG-DEA模型的中国水资源污染综合分配效率测算

利用考虑多维产出的零和收益-数据包络分析(ZSG-DEA)模型测算2000—2017年中国大陆31个省级行政区(以下简称省)在水资源污染排放总量固定下的污染综合分配效率及生产、生活与生态3个维度的产出效率,并基于效率最大化原则对2017年各省污染排放额度进行调整。结果表明:31个省污染综合分配效率的平均值由2000年的0.322上升至2017年的0.364,生产维度产出效率是拉动污染综合分配效率提升的主要动力;2000—2017年31个省污染综合分配效率的平均值为0.341,生态产出过量与生活维度产出不足导致污染综合分配效率处于较低水平;污染综合分配效率、生态维度产出效率与生活维度产出效率受经济发展水平影响较小,而生产维度产出效率受经济发展水平影响较大;污染综合分配效率分布由大到小为东部、西部、中部,生产维度产出效率分布由大到小为东部、中部、西部,生态维度产出效率分布由大到小为西部、中部、东部,生活维度产出效率分布由大到小为西部、东部、中部;各省污染排放调整额度与污染综合分配效率呈正相关关系,北京、天津、上海、浙江、青海与西藏等20个效率较高的省可增加污染排放额度,河北、安徽、河南、江西与湖北等11个效率较低的省需降低污染排放额度。     

Preventing HIV in injection drug users: exploring the tradeoffs between interventions

Injection drug users (IDUs) transmit the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) via both needle sharing and sex. Available interventions for this population have varying costs and effectiveness and focus on different risk behaviors. In this analysis, we look at two interventions. One is inexpensive, broad-based and provides modest risk reductions (street outreach (SO)); the other is narrowly focused, expensive and relatively effective (methadone maintenance). This analysis explores the effects of population risk behavior, intervention effectiveness, intervention costs, and decision constraints when allocating funds between these two interventions to maximize effectiveness. We develop a model of the spread of HIV, dividing IDUs into susceptibles (uninfected) and infectives, and separately portraying sex and injection risk. We simulate the epidemic in New York City for time periods from the mid-1980s to the early 1990s, and incorporate the behavioral effects of two interventions performed singly or in combination to find the allocation that maximizes the number of infections averted in the IDUs and their noninjecting sex partners, assuming interventions have increasing marginal costs. We find that the optimal allocation nearly always involves spending the maximum allowable amount on SO. This result is largely insensitive to variations in risk parameters, intervention efficacy, or cost. The model's structure, however, makes clear that many factors contribute to this insensitivity, namely the scope of the interventions, the dual drug/sex nature of HIV risk in the population, the asymmetry of sexual risk for men and women, and the potential benefits to nonIDUs.     

Distribution-free tests for comparing several treatments with a control

Abstract  In this paper we propose distribution-free treatments versus control tests for the one- and two-way classifications. The null distribution properties are shown to be equivalent to those of well-known statistics for which critical values have been extensively tabled. Asymptotic relative efficiencies with respect to corresponding normal theory competitors are derived and optimal designs for the allocation of experimental units to the treatments and control are obtained.