不同横断面泄流槽的地震堰塞湖溃决实验研究

堰塞湖的溃决问题是研究堰塞湖的核心内容之一,也是堰塞湖进行排险和处置的重要依据.本文以唐家山堰塞湖为原型,设计室内1∶250的近似模型实验,完成了堰塞湖自然溃决实验、梯形槽堰塞湖溃决实验、三角形槽堰塞湖溃决实验和复式槽堰塞湖溃决实验,通过对溃决过程中堰塞坝内部土体体积含水量变化特征、泄流槽侵蚀特征和溃决流量过程的分析,获得以下认识:(1)溃决初期以下切侵蚀为主、后期以侧蚀为主;溯源侵蚀方面,自然溃决表现最强烈,人工辅助溃决实验中溯源侵蚀由强到弱依次为:复式槽、三角形槽、梯形槽;(2)人工辅助溃决在一定程度上削减了洪峰流量,与自然溃决相比减小了7.7％ ～20.1％,表明开挖人工泄流槽降低坝前水位的措施对于降低堰塞湖溃决风险是可行的;(3)以溃决流量增长率高或到达溃决洪峰时间短为判定溃决初期排泄效率高的标准,对比3组人工槽溃决实验,排泄效率由高到低依次为:三角型横断面、复式横断面、梯形横断面.针对唐家山堰塞湖处置,可在梯形槽基础上开挖三角形槽变为复式槽来进一步提升溃决初期排泄效率.     

Use of otolith chemistry to discriminate juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from different wild populations and hatcheries in Lake Huron

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in Lake Huron consist of wild and hatchery-reared fish distributed among several populations. This study tested whether otolith chemistry can be used to identify the natal origin of Chinook salmon in this system. Concentrations of nine elements (Mg, K, Mn, Fe, Zn, Rb, Sr, Ba, and Pb) in the otoliths of Chinook salmon juveniles from 24 collection sites (17 streams and 7 hatcheries) around Lake Huron were analyzed using laser-ablation inductively-coupled mass spectrometry. Differences in otolith chemistry were found between rearing environments (wild and hatchery), among geological regions (Precambrian, Ordovician, Silurian, Devonian, and Carboniferous), and among collection sites. Discriminant function analysis showed high classification accuracies of juveniles to their rearing environment (wild versus hatchery, 82%), geological region (84%), and collection site (87%) of origin. With these values, there is excellent potential for otolith chemistry to be used to predict the natal origin of adults, and thus inform research and management of Chinook salmon in Lake Huron.     

科学认识河湖水系连通问题

近年,河湖水系连通问题受到了极大关注,各级水行政主管部门对河湖水系连通的理论问题提出了迫切需求。结合国内外河湖水系连通的实例以及不同专家的意见和建议,对河湖水系连通的相关问题进行了初步梳理和总结,提出了当前推进河湖水系连通工作应注意的几个问题。     

人工湖优化设计方法

针对防洪治涝工程设计规划中人工湖布局缺乏明确的技术依据问题,为了提高人工湖调蓄洪水的功效,优化城市防洪治涝体系,分析了人工湖对河道洪水过程的影响和防洪调蓄的功效。通过系统优化分析,提出了人工湖面积和布置位置的确定方法。实例说明,提出的人工湖优化设计方法简单有效,可供城市防洪治涝工程规划设计参考。     

引水济湖工程措施的生态环境影响评价方法

在湖泊引水方案和二维环境流体动力学模型影响预测计算结果的基础上,提出引水后湖泊环境生态影响预测评价方法:①从湖泊水景的自然度、自净(健康)度、景观度、亲水度、连通度5个方面,构造了引江济湖工程对湖泊生态-环境-景观综合影响指数评价法;②从水环境质量、生物多样性、防洪排涝、景观生态结构等方面应用质量指标法进行工程对湖泊健康综合影响评价。实例应用表明,两种评价方法可以对湖泊引水影响效果进行科学评价,结论也比较一致,为正确实施引水济湖方案提供了科学评估方法和依据。     

模糊综合评价法在引江济巢工程引水线路优选中的应用

引江济巢工程是巢湖水环境综合治理措施,其中引水线路的选择是整个工程规划的关键之一。工程引水线路方案有凤凰颈、白荡湖、菜子湖三条线路,线路的选择具有复杂性、模糊性和不确定性。基于模糊数学理论,采用模糊综合评价法对各引水线路进行评价,建立评价指标集、评价等级集和评价指标权重集,先后做一级、二级模糊综合评价,经模糊优选菜子湖线路要优于凤凰颈和白荡湖线路。经过实践应用,此法在引江济巢工程引水线路优选中有效地将规划设计人员的主观认识客观化,能够科学迅速地对规划设计方案做出合理的优选。     

Anthropogenic and climatic influences over the past three centuries on characteristics of an Adirondack lake,Eastern North America

Fourth Lake is a drainage lake at 43°N, 74°W, from which a 37‐cm long mud‐water interface core was recovered. ²¹⁰Pb dating indicates the core spans ≈340 years, from the Little Ice Age through modern global warming. Diatom accumulation responds to anthropogenic watershed disturbances, declining slightly up‐core until a peak in the late‐1800s attributable to sediment and nutrient influx from logging and enlargement of the outlet dam. A dramatic decrease occurs ≈1900 as logging and lake filling ceased, and a smaller peak ≈1960 accompanies residential development. Similar changes occur in organic carbon accumulation, which ranges from 0.0038–0.024 mg cm^?2 year^?1, with generally decreasing values up‐core, punctuated by maximum values in the late‐1800s. Expressing diatoms as concentration, however, reveals a doubling up‐core that positively correlates with changes extending beyond the watershed, including Northern Hemisphere temperature, atmospheric CO₂ concentration and solar irradiance (R = 0.627, 0.675 and 0.400, respectively). A >50% increase in % organic carbon, from 3.8% to 5.9%, also positively correlates with these larger‐scale environmental conditions (R = 0.828, 0.830 and 0.832), while negative correlations with the extrabasinal records are exhibited by magnetic susceptibility (R = ?0.654, ?0.496, and ?0.660) and clay (R = ?0.770, ?0.762, and ?0.737). These changes are consistent with decreased sediment influx and reduced dilution of biogenous sedimentary components. In contrast to total diatoms, the accumulation of planktonic genus Asterionella displays a long‐term increase up‐core. Potential explanations include increasing duration of the ice‐free season or a shift in the timing of the spring bloom and a mismatch with abundance of predator(s). Asterionella also increases as a percentage of total diatoms, being positively correlated with extrabasinal conditions (R = 0.827, 0.774 and 0.674). This change occurs at the expense of many benthic genera and, over the past century, at the expense of tychoplanktonic genus, Aulacosiera. Heavily silicified, Aulacosiera requires strong mixing to remain within the epilimnion. Thus, its decline might result from increasing stratification caused by warming.     

基于指标权重的湖库营养状态识别

针对湖库营养状态识别未考虑指标权重及营养状态分级较少的不足,基于熵值法与概率神经网络（PNN）基本原理,提出熵值PNN湖库营养状态识别模型,以全国24个湖库营养状态识别为例进行分析。利用熵值法确定识别指标权重,依据我国湖库富营养化评价标准,将湖库营养状态划分为极贫营养一极重度富营养11个等级,提出基于改进的湖库营养状态识别等级标准,在等级标准域值间采用随机内插的方法生成样本对PNN模型进行训练和检验,利用正确识别率和运行时间对PNN模型性能进行评价。最后,基于两种方案对全国24个湖库营养状态进行识别。结果表明：@PNN模型对于随机生成的训练样本和检验样本的正确识别率分别达到98．9％、98．6％（5次平均）,模型用于湖库营养状态识别是合理可行的。②湖库识别结果存在差异。比较而言,基于指标权重考虑的识别结果更能科学、客观地反映湖库营养状态。     

江苏太湖流域降雨径流年际变化分析

以江苏太湖流域（1956—2012）降雨为基础,分析江苏太湖流域径流及时空变化特征,研究该流域降雨径流的年际年内变化及两者的变化关系。结果表明：降雨径流都呈增长趋势。降雨平均每10年增加29mm,径流平均每10年增加26mm;降雨在年内季节分配上,夏季、冬季呈加大趋势,春季、秋季呈减小趋势;加大的降水年内分配的不均导致径流在年内分配的更加不均匀,径流集中在汛期,汛期径流量约达年径流量的84．8％,加大了某季节内的洪水、干旱风险。     

白洋淀气候变化及对生态系统的影响

根据1955年-2010年白洋淀地区气象数据及生态资料,研究了气候变化对白洋淀湿地生态系统的影响,以期为白洋淀湿地保护和可持续发展提供依据。结果表明:近56年来,白洋淀地区的气温总体呈现上升趋势,且在2007年达到最高值,而降水量、平均风速和日照时数均呈现下降趋势,其中1996年以后的降水量均低于56年的平均降水量。白洋淀地区降水量和年最高水位呈明显的正相关关系,平均气温和水域面积的变化趋势则相反。水位、水域面积的变化以及人类活动等因素影响了白洋淀水质和生物多样性以及不同土地利用类型的分配比例。