基于转轮换型的水轮机增容改造及数值模拟

从青海铁吾电站HL160-WJ-84水轮机运行中的实际问题出发,在明确了水轮机改造的方向和目标后,对新旧型谱系列模型转轮的性能进行了对比分析。基于对比结果,初选出了D06A转轮用于技术改造试验。对改造前后的水轮机全流道进行三维湍流数值计算,给出了水轮机改造前后的水动力学特性差异。同时,对改造前后的水轮机蜗壳、转轮叶片的流态分布状况进行了分析比较,对改造后的水轮机整体水力性能进行预估。分析认为,对于小型卧式HL160机组而言,更换转轮后还需对上冠泄水孔实施改造,以防止对流场造成扰动,降低机组的效率。     

基于结构方程模型的征地对移民福利影响分析

为了解工程征地对农村移民福利的影响,采用结构方程模型,对南水北调丹江口水库移民进行了实证分析,结果表明:搬迁前后土地面积变化、土地质量变化尤其是补偿标准高低这3方面的征地状况对水库移民福利具有比较显著的影响,其中前者为负向影响,后两者为正向影响;水库移民福利与发展机遇、经济收支、社会适应、居住条件、社会保障的关系显著。因此,水库移民安置应合理提高征地补偿标准,大力实施精准帮持改善移民的发展机遇与经济收支等状况,以确保移民福利改进与获得感增强。     

水土流失遥感调查中植被覆盖度因子提取研究

植被覆盖度是水土流失的主要影响因子,而利用遥感影像判读可以快速有效地获得大范围的植被覆盖度。简要介绍了水土流失遥感调查中植被覆盖度因子提取的方法。基于遥感与实地野外调查数据,采用MODIS时序数据融合高分遥感数据的方法,以湖南省蓝山县为试验区,对植被覆盖度因子进行了提取。结果表明,该方法提取植被覆盖度因子的结果较理想。提出的植被覆盖度因子提取方法对今后的水土流失动态监测研究具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。     

堆场疏浚泥颗粒分选特性初步量化方法

为了准确评估堆场存储能力和合理选择疏浚泥处理工艺,以泥沙运动学为理论基础,将疏浚泥颗粒分为d0.005 mm、0.005 mm≤d≤0.01 mm和d0.01 mm 3个粒组,分析了各粒组相对含量的沿程变化规律,明确了堆场疏浚泥分选的主要原因是d0.01 mm粒组与0.005 mm≤d≤0.01 mm粒组的相对运动;以分选系数量化堆场疏浚泥分选的显著程度,以偏离系数量化原泥颗粒组成对堆场疏浚泥分选的影响,分析了分选系数、偏离系数分布与堆场疏浚泥土性分布的关系,提出了堆场疏浚泥分选特性的初步量化方法。研究结果表明:随着离吹填口距离的增大,分选系数沿程减小,呈幂函数分布,堆场疏浚泥分选性沿程减弱,吹填口附近分选系数最大,颗粒分选显著,粒度差异大,退水口附近分选系数趋近于零,分选不明显,颗粒分布均匀;偏离系数沿程先减小后增大,呈勺形分布,反映堆场前、后段疏浚泥土性与原泥相差较大,而堆场中段疏浚泥土性与原泥接近;分选系数、偏离系数的沿程分布与堆场疏浚泥土性分区具有良好的相关性。     

珠江干流(2008—2015年)水质变化趋势分析

以珠江干流为研究区域,选取源头及干流10个水质断面的2008-2015年7项参数监测数据,采用季节性kendall趋势检验法分析珠江干流的水质变化趋势,得出珠江干流各测站的pH、溶解氧(DO)、高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)、总磷(TP)、氟化物(F-)共5项参数趋于改善,五日生化需氧量(BOD5)及氨氮(NH3-N)共2项参数浓度基本保持不变;流域水质变化综合指数WQTI表明珠江干流总体水质状况趋向改善;水质呈现上游恶化中下游好转、污染物呈现以省区为单位以省会为中心的西部低东部高的地域分布特点.     

山西省孝义市近40年气候变化特征分析

为了深入研究山西省孝义市气候变化特征,采用Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验及Morlet小波变换等方法对孝义市1975-2015年气候要素进行趋势估计、突变检验、周期分析及发展趋势预测。结果表明:近40年来,孝义市年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,突变年份为1996年,存在32、9 a长周期;年降雨量呈不显著下降趋势,突变年份为1990年,存在32、6 a长周期;年蒸发量呈显著性上升趋势,突变年份为1997年,存在32、10 a长周期;年平均相对湿度呈显著下降趋势,突变年份为1982、2003年,存在15、32 a长周期。孝义市1975-2015年年代际气候经历了"冷湿-暖湿-暖干"的变化过程,预测全境2017-2030年年代际气候将经历"冷湿-暖干"的变化过程。     

Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios

Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.     

Assessment of future climate change impacts on hydrological behavior of Richmond River Catchment

This study evaluated the impacts of future climate change on the hydrological response of the Richmond River Catchment in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using the conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling approach (the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model). Daily observations of rainfall, temperature, and streamflow and long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration from the meteorological and hydrological stations within the catchment for the period of 1972–2014 were used to run, calibrate, and validate the HBV model prior to the streamflow prediction. Future climate signals of rainfall and temperature were extracted from a multi-model ensemble of seven global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) with three regional climate scenarios, A2, A1B, and B1. The calibrated HBV model was then forced with the ensemble mean of the downscaled daily rainfall and temperature to simulate daily future runoff at the catchment outlet for the early part (2016–2043), middle part (2044–2071), and late part (2072–2099) of the 21st century. All scenarios during the future periods present decreasing tendencies in the annual mean streamflow ranging between 1% and 24.3% as compared with the observed period. For the maximum and minimum flows, all scenarios during the early, middle, and late parts of the century revealed significant declining tendencies in the annual mean maximum and minimum streamflows, ranging between 30% and 44.4% relative to the observed period. These findings can assist the water managers and the community of the Richmond River Catchment in managing the usage of future water resources in a more sustainable way.     

Effects of hydrological changes on cooperation in transnational catchments: the case of the Syr Darya

Water allocation along the Syr Darya River may be affected by climate change. Here we statistically model cooperation strategies, country profits, and sensitivity of cooperation, showing that the hydrological regime affects transboundary cooperation. Climate change in the twenty-first century may reduce glacial cover, and reducing stream flows, decreasing chances of cooperation and potentially raising conflicts. Comparison with other transboundary catchments in Central Asia indicates moderate-to-high risk of conflicts for the Syr Darya. A template is provided for assessment of the stability of cooperation in the Syr Darya basin, and in catchments similarly dependent on water availability.     

Patterns in the crustacean zooplankton community in Lake Winnipeg,Manitoba: Response to long-term environmental change

Changes in the crustacean zooplankton community composition and abundance in Lake Winnipeg (1969–2006) provide a rare opportunity to examine their response to environmental changes in the largest naturally eutrophic lake on the Canadian prairies. Since 1929, zooplankton species composition in Lake Winnipeg has changed little except for the addition of the invasive cladoceran, Eubosmina coregoni in 1994. The dominant taxa in the lake in summer include: Leptodiaptomus ashlandi, Acanthocyclops vernalis, Diacyclops thomasi, Daphnia retrocurva, Daphnia mendotae, Diaphanosoma birgei, Eubosmina coregoni, and Bosmina longirostris. Climate-accelerated nutrient loading to southern Lake Winnipeg over the last two decades has led to increased phytoplankton abundance and higher frequency of cyanobacterial blooms especially in its northern basin. Crustacean zooplankton have likewise increased especially in the North Basin, but less so in the more nutrient rich South Basin, possibly as a consequence of higher densities of pelagic planktivorous fish and light-limited primary production compared with the more transparent North basin (Brunskill et al., 1979, 1980). Calanoid copepods play a larger role in the South basin food web in contrast to cyclopoid copepods and Cladocera in the North basin. The study begins to fill the recognized gap in understanding of Lake Winnipeg's food web structure and provides a baseline for evaluating ongoing changes in the zooplankton community with the arrival of new non-indigenous taxa, e.g. Bythotrephes longimanus and Dreissena polymorpha. It reinforces previous work demonstrating that zooplankton provide valuable indices toward evaluating the health of an ecosystem.