基于利用回归分析法预报上下游相关洪峰水位

根据实际工作需要,为克服采用传统手段利用上下游洪峰水位相关图法来进行洪水预报所带来的不精确性和任意性,笔者利用数学函数方程和回归分析计算软件,使用excel的图形功能,先绘制样本数据散点图,然后在图上添加趋势线,确定了回归方程类型。根据回归方程类型进行了方程系数率定分析,最终推求出预报黑龙江乌云站洪峰水位和洪峰传播时间的数学回归方程,经实例拟合验证,方程计算结果通过检验,基本满足实际应用要求。     

海上风电基础结构疲劳寿命分析

针对海上风电基础结构疲劳损伤、疲劳寿命评价方法展开研究.区分疲劳荷载为单级疲劳荷载和多级疲劳荷载联合作用两种情况,考虑渐增型、往复型和正弦波型3种疲劳荷载作用方式,借助三桩导管架式海上风电基础,采用基于S-N曲线和Palmgren-Miner线性累计损伤法则的疲劳寿命估算方法对疲劳荷载作用下的结构疲劳损伤进行了计算,对结构整体寿命进行了评价;对单级疲劳荷载或多级疲劳荷载联合作用时,3种作用方式作用下的基础结构进行了疲劳分析,定义疲劳极限与疲劳荷载造成的应力水平的比值为安全系数,用以量化基础结构各部位或部件的抗疲劳能力,同时验证了加载顺序对于结构的锻炼效应.结果表明:基于S-N曲线和Palmgren-Miner线性累计损伤法则的结构疲劳寿命估算,其依托的应力水平是单独获得的,忽略了加载顺序的影响;渐增型、往复型及正弦波型3种疲劳荷载作用形式对结构疲劳寿命的影响渐趋恶劣;由高到低的加载顺序对结构造成的损伤比由低到高的加载顺序要严重.     

大洞径隧洞围岩稳定性分析

水工隧洞洞径大,地质构造复杂,因其地质背景和岩体各种特性参数不准确,理论计算难以准确掌握其工作状态,尤其在施工期还受到施工过程的扰动.原型监测是监控其工作状态的有效手段.文中以某电站地下厂房进水隧洞为例,根据现场监测资料,通过建立回归模型,分析、预测隧洞围岩体的变化规律,并探讨了围岩体的空间变形分布情况.分析结果表明隧洞围岩体目前是稳定的.     

Excel回归分析拟合河流水位-流量关系

Excel集数据分析、数据计算、图文处理功能为一身,包含了大量的与多变量回归分析相关的函数和工具。利用Excel回归分析拟合河流水位-流量关系的方法比Origin、 MATLAB等专业数据分析软件更为简单实用。文章依据某水文站水位-流量实测数据,以Excel提供的5种趋势预测类型,分别阐述河流水位-流量关系Excel回归分析的方法和步骤,并利用拟合优度参数对拟合结果进行了检验和分析。     

基于叠加的马尔科夫链的永吉县降水量分析

利用永吉县1957-2011年降水资料,采用线性回归法及叠加的马尔科夫链方法对永吉县的降水量进行分析,结果表明,永吉县降水量在54年中20世纪70-80年代为下降趋势,之后呈先上升后下降的趋势。以叠加的马尔科夫链可以很好的模拟永吉县降水量,但在大旱大涝年份误差较大,在计算中应综合降水序列整体进行计算以消除误差。     

阳离子乳化沥青混凝土配合比设计的优选方法研究

采用均匀正交试验对水泥掺量、乳液用量、拌合用水量三个因素进行优选,得到阳离子乳化沥青混凝土的基础配合比参数。通过测定每组沥青混凝土试件的稳定度和流值,并采用投影寻踪回归分析法(PPR)研究了水泥掺量、乳液用量和拌合用水量对稳定度和流值的影响规律,研究发现,对于稳定度和流值影响最大的因素是水泥掺量,其次是乳液用量的影响,而拌合用水量对稳定度和流值影响较小。     

Economic Benefits of Reservoirs in the Irrigated Agriculture

Abstract

In the Jordan Valley of Jordan, the demand for water and ability to control its location, timing, quality, and quantity are becoming critical. The competition for water between the urban and agricultural sectors is increasing. There is a general trend in Jordan to reduce water allocated for agricultural use. Increasing the price of irrigation water or restricting the planted areas of water consuming crops, such as bananas, has been implemented during the recent growing season. The main objective of this paper is to highlight the impact of optimal allocation of irrigation water by building storage capacity on the economy of Jordan Valley. A linear programming technique is used, and the main results show that for proper management of water storage capacity, the suggested cropping pattern would generate $88.2 million, whereas the actual cropping pattern generated $74.4 million. The optimal water demand schedule is distributed according to the needs of the planted crops, and water demand has been allocated in an efficient way. In addition, appropriate management of storage capacity has solved the problem of water scarcity during the summer months, when peak production takes place. Storage-transfer system between locations played a significant role in reallocating irrigation water through the storage system. This compensates to a high degree in keeping the agricultural production more stable in physical and monetary units.     

Using Similarity Analyses to Scale Out Research Findings Across Andean Watershed Basins

Abstract

Strategic research in agriculture and natural resources carried out by international research centers is deemed a public good and should, sooner or later, be put into the hands of development, governmental and non-governmental organizations. However, this research is usually done at specific pilot sites; there is a greater need to know how representative those sites are in relation to the diversity of contexts in other locations. Such is the case with the Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF), a global initiative in water research promoted by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), which is developing and implementing strategic research in nine basins located in the tropics of Africa, Asia and South America. Given that resources are not available to collect data from the whole of the region, pilot sites are needed. It is hoped that research outputs obtained in the selected pilot sites can be the basis for scaling out solutions to similar situations in neighbouring or adjacent areas in same or different basins.

In order to contribute to the scaling-out process, different classification methodologies were applied to determine how specific watershed basins are representative of larger areas. The Andean eco-region served as a case study but the methods can easily be applied in other regions. The spatial diversity of biophysical and social conditions across the Andes requires careful site selection. Two methods, a combination of Weight of Evidence (WofE) and Logistic Regression (LR) methods and Fast Cluster analysis, were used to determine the similarity of selected sites with those excluded. A 1-km study resolution covering most of the Andes eco-region included annual rainfall, elevation, length of growing period, land cover, roads and population density as the key variables. Results showed complementarities between the two methods in presenting a probability surface of similarity across the Andes and a clustering of similar sites inside and outside the pilot basins. The output information forms a strong basis for devising plans to scale out research findings from the pilot basins to the whole region.     

基于近邻估计的年径流预测动态 联系数回归模型

集对分析理论为处理确定、不确定系统提供了新的途径,根据集对分析理论建立起来的预测联系数回归模型可以明显改善回归模型的预测精度。对于预测因子结构具有的动态性,文中将利用近邻估计,通过计算各个预测因子的变异系数,来判断预测因子在某次预测中处于强势或者弱势,进而动态地选择预报功能大的强势因子,消除对预报起负面作用的弱势因子的作用,这样很好地体现了预测因子结构中具有的动态性。基于此建立了基于近邻估计的年径流预测动态联系数回归模型（NNE-DCNR）。结果说明：用NNE-DCNR去预测年径流量,预测精度比常用预测方法有显著提高,在水文水资源的预测中具有推广应用价值     

三峡升船机船厢室底板沉降监测 变形数据分析

三峡升船机是目前世界上规模最大和技术难度最高的升船机,其底板高程为50 m。为监测该底板在施工期间的沉降情况并研究沉降对升船机土建施工、埋件及设备安装的影响,对沉降监测数据及原因进行了分析,建立了变形与影响因素之间的数学模型。研究表明：该底板沉降呈周期性变化且在±2 mm左右,其影响可以忽略不计。