城市科学20年的发展历程--祝贺中国城市科学研究会成立20周年

回顾北京市城市科学研究会的发展历程,分为多学科协同研究城市问题阶段;城市发展多学科综合研究阶段;城市发展综合研究向重点领域开展阶段.概括了北京城科会的主要学术成果.     

水量还原方法及合理性检查

文中详细地阐述了取河水、井水、水库水、跨流城引(排)水等不同情况进行还原的具体方法步骤。并对水量还原成果提出合理性检查措施。     

图书在版编目研究

简述了英、美等国图书在版编目的发展和中国实施在版编目的意义、作用及特点,对中国实施图书在版编目提出了设想和建议。     

新安江流域安徽省地区水环境状况分析

统计分析流域内点源污染、面源污染产生量与污染物入河量的调查监测数据,结果表明:安徽省辖新安江流域点源入河系数约为面源入河系数2~3倍,点源污染是流域内主要污染来源,但面源污染的作用不容忽视,尤其是总磷,有近2/3来自面源,相对省辖淮河、长江两流域来说,面源污染贡献率明显增大。指出流域污染防治必须综合考虑点、面源污染两个方面;在点源污染不太严重的情况下,对面源污染的治理必须引起足够的重视,才能取得实效。     

Victory margins and the paradox of voting

This paper addresses a simple question: why do people vote? Though simple, this question remains unanswered despite the considerable attention it has received. In this paper, I show that purely rational–instrumental factors explain a large fraction of turnout variations, provided that the effect of the margin of victory on implemented policy is considered. I extend Myerson's models of elections based on Poisson games, and show that, when platforms are responsive to vote shares, the predictions of the model become consistent with several stylized facts, including the secular fall in turnout rates in the US.     

应用改进BP网络对潼关高程的预测

作者在分析了影响汛前和汛后潼关高程变化值的因素的基础上，利用改进BP网络模型对非特征汛期和汛期潼关高程的变化值进行了计算。计算中不采用潼关的绝对高程，而用高程的变化量作为网络的较出物正量，从而减少计算误差，同时又能客观地考虑各影响因子的作用。改进后的BP模型学习时间短，精度满足要求。用该模型计算的潼关高程变化趋势与实际水库调度运行中的高程基本吻合。     

水资源承载力及其研究

文章简要介绍了我国水资源情况,分析了我国水资源承载力与可持续发展的关系,并阐述了水资源承载力 研究的特点和方法。     

辽河防洪应急工程中的加筋粉细砂筑坝技术

加筋粉细砂筑坝是一门新兴技术,通过在辽河防洪应急工程右岸李家堡段应用表明,该项技术在技术上是可行的、在经济上是合理的。本文介绍了该技术在辽河防洪应急工程右岸李家堡段的应用。     

PEDAKSI: Methodology for Collecting Data about Survey Non-Respondents

The effects of unit non-response on survey errors are of great concern to researchers.However, direct assessment of non-response bias in survey estimates is rarely possible.Attempts are often made to adjust for the effects of non-response by weighting, but thisusually relies on the use of frame data or external population data, which are at bestmodestly correlated with the survey variables. This paper reports the development ofa method to collect limited survey data from non-respondents to personal interviewsurveys and a large-scale field test of the method on the British Crime Survey (BCS).The method is shown to be acceptable and low cost, to provide valid data, and to haveno detrimental effect on the main survey. The use of the resultant data to estimatenon-response bias is illustrated and some substantive conclusions are drawn for the BCS.     

堆石料与基岩面直剪试验

介绍了堆石料与基岩面的现场直剪试验方法，6个组次的直剪试验结果表明，堆石料与基岩面的抗剪强度指标随基岩面坚硬度的增大而增加，并随基岩面粗糙度的加大而加大。