Economic progress and skill obsolescence with network effects

Summary. We construct an OLG model with network effects to examine skill obsolescence when individuals can choose technological vintages. In the absence of transfer payments, some regions of the parameter space have unique stationary equilibria, others have unique cyclical equilibria, and others have multiple stationary equilibria. All equilibria are Pareto efficient. However, rat race equilibria can exist in which all agents currently alive prefer a slower rate of progress than occurs in equilibrium. When contemporaneous transfers are allowed, equilibria are unique everywhere, but a cycle still exists, and a rat race can still arise in equilibrium. Allowing intertemporal transfers (debt) ensures that all equilibria are stationary. In the relevant parameter range, the introduction of debt can eliminate cycles and increase the long-run growth rate. No rat race equilibria exist when debt is allowed.Received: 3 January 2002, Revised: 3 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: 041, J24, O33. Correspondence to: Ian P. KingEarly versions of this paper were presented at the West Coast Macro Workshop, the Mid-West Macro Meetings, the Canadian Macroeconomics Study Group Meetings, and the Society for Economic Dynamics Meetings. We would like to thank V. V. Chari, Merwan Engineer, Don Ferguson, John Hillas, John Knowles, Dan Peled, Dan Usher, Linda Welling and Julian Wright for helpful comments. We are especially grateful to an anonymous referee for some very useful and substantive comments.     

不确定环境下的企业战略设计模式

本文通过对传统企业战略设计模式的再思考 ,并从企业战略设计的实际情况出发提出 :当企业面对不确定环境时 ,战略思维方式应该从线性向非线性转变 ,从而提高企业战略在不确定环境下的“预见”力和应变能力。本文建立了一个基于战略转换的战略形成、实施同步并行的企业战略设计模式 ,来达到在复杂、不确定的环境中获取持续竞争优势的目的。     

制度、技术与中国农业发展问题新探——基于诺斯制度变迁与舒尔茨农业发展理论的思索

诺斯的制度变迁理论启示我们,制度变迁是促进农业发展的根本原因;舒尔茨的农业发展理论则使我们了解技术进步对农业发展的重要性.20世纪90年代后,我国农业发展水平一直没有明显的提高,其根源就在于制度与技术发展的双双滞后.以往鉴来,当前我国的新农村建设应走技术与制度并重之路.     

影响人民币实际汇率长期趋势的因素研究

本文对人民币实际汇率的长期变动趋势进行了实证研究。通过协整模型构建了实际汇率与劳动生产率、政府消费和贸易条件之间长期的均衡关系，并通过误差修正模型考察了实际汇率短期内的动态调整过程。结果表明，无论在短期还是长期，生产率的变动对人民币实际汇率的变动都起着最重要的作用，但是对实际汇率的变动方向与巴一萨效应预测的相反。这可能是因为中国的经济发展阶段不适用其假设，劳动力的无限供给、政府消费和贸易条件等其他因素亦影响着人民币实际汇率的变动趋势，说明即使是在长期内，巴一萨效应的假设也不能成立。政府能够通过财政支出来影响实际汇率短期波动和长期变动趋势，从而影响我国产品在国际上的价格竞争优势。     

家族企业产权制度变迁路径

国内外家族企业发展的历史证明。产权的逐渐多元化和社会化是必然趋势。单一的产权结构不仅限制了家族企业筹集资金的能力。而且限制了家族企业的人才结构，无法满足企业扩展的要求。因此，对于处在扩张阶段的我国家族企业而言，必须突破产权关。实现家族企业的产权变迁。     

基于制度变迁理论的政府投资项目管理模式探讨

运用制度变迁理论，分析了我国政府投资项目管理模式的制度需求、中央政府和地方政府在政府投资项目管理模式制度变迁中的主体地位、强制性和诱导性两种制度变迁方式，强调在制度创新过程中应当注意制度变迁效率。     

New Technology in Unionized Firms: Advantages of Mandatory Bargaining

U.S. Labor Law currently allows employers whose work forces are unionized to introduce new technologies without bargaining over the decision to do so. This forces unions to adopt inefficient strategies when negotiating collective bargaining agreements in an effort to minimize the impact of technological change on their members. Allowing unions to bargain over the decision to introduce new technologies would obviate their having to resort to these inefficient strategies. In addition, it might increase the likelihood of employees suggesting alterations in production processes that would increase the rate of technological change. For these reasons, this article advocates amending U.S. labor law to require employers to bargain over the introduction of new technologies.     

农民工的社会网络变迁

采用系统模式研究了进城农民工的社会网络重构过程,指出随着谋生方式由农业生产向非农产业的转移,进城农民工正在逐步建立起以业缘关系为基础的新的社会纽带,并使之成为其社会网络的重要组成部分.这些由进城农民工一手构建的社会关系网络正在成为他们在城市生活中赖以生存和发展的重要资本.     

论制度变迁的成本约束

制度变迁的关键是成本约束，这是制度本身产生的根本性要求。制度变迁是成本和收益相权衡和比较的产物，制度设计和安排必须充分考虑到制度变迁的成本和收益，减少制度变迁的阻力，提高制度运行的效率。     

Technological change in energy systems: Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R&D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R&D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does.