Fiscal policy and private consumption behaviour: The Spanish case

In this article we analyse whether the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is a valid approximation for Spains economic reality or whether there exist deviations from that situation which would be more in line with the conventional Keynesian perspective of the effects of debt on private consumption-savings decisions.Our aim is to contribute to the rather sparse empirical literature on the subject for the Spanish case. The analysis is based on annual aggregate data for Spain covering the years 1955 to 2000, and uses both the structural and the Euler equation approaches to test the neutrality proposition, and is thus to be considered as a generalization of foregoing work on the Spanish economy.The findings indicate that support for Ricardian equivalence is mixed, while we also find very little support for the Keynesian specification of consumption and fiscal policy.First revision received: March 2003 / Final version received: October 2003The authors wish to thank M. Ferré, J.M. González-Páramo, A. Marchante, P. Meguire, F. Pedraja, J.L. Raymond, J. Salinas and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions on this paper. We also thank the participants in the V Encuentro de Economía Aplicada (Oviedo, Spain, June 2002) and the XVII Simposio de Análisis Económico (Salamanca, Spain, December 2002) for their comments. Any remaining defects are our responsibility. We also are grateful to the Institute for Fiscal Studies of Spain (Ministerio de Hacienda, Secretaría de Estado de Hacienda) for its financial support.     

The non-linear impact of oil price on the oil demand

ABSTRACT

A panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non-linear impact of oil prices on oil demand. Data for 42 countries was obtained from the International Energy Agency for the time period spanning from January 1990 to June 2017. The results indicate that a threshold value does exist. Furthermore, when the oil price was lower than this threshold value, a positive relationship between oil price and oil demand was observed. When the price of oil was higher than the threshold value, however, a negative relationship between price and demand was found.     

Exploring the link between household debt and income inequality: an asymmetric approach

We investigate the relationship between household debt and income inequality in the USA, allowing for asymmetry, using data over the period 1913–2008. We find evidence of an asymmetric cointegration between household debt and inequality for different regimes. Our results indicate household debt only responds to positive changes in income inequality, while there is no evidence of falling inequality significantly affecting household debt. The presence of this asymmetry provides further empirical insights into the emerging literature on household debt and inequality.     

From real estate to consumption: the role of credit markets in the USA

The aim of this article is to test whether the credit market conditions affect the strength of transmission of real estate wealth effects on household consumption in the US economy. Although many different works have dealt with the analysis of the existence of a real estate wealth effect, most of them as a reaction to the dramatic increase of housing prices in several OECD countries, there are only few papers analysing whether the consumption response depends on the positive or negative sign of the wealth shock and, as far as we know, none of them takes the effects of credit market conditions on that asymmetric response into account. This article tries to fill the existing gap in the literature on this matter. From an econometric perspective, we estimate the asymmetries in the consumption response within the momentum threshold autoregressive model (M-TAR) proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001), but following Stevans (2004), it is applied to a multivariate framework. The main results show that the credit market conditions play a significant role in the transmission of changes in real estate wealth to consumption. In addition, we find that there exists an asymmetric behaviour in the US aggregate consumption spending responses to real estate wealth and credit market shocks, which is only significant when a negative shock takes place.     

Research on a diagnostic system of rural vitalization based on development elements in China

In 2017, the Chinese government implemented a national strategy of "Rural Vitalization" that sought to realize full-scale rural vitalization. However, is it possible to achieve vitalization for all the villages in China? How should their development potential be determined? This paper identified and analyzed the "element-composite" messages of rural development based on 99 exemplary sites of “Beautiful Villages” in China. Combined with the projection pursuit classification method, a diagnostic system of rural vitalization was established; then, Dehua County was taken as a case study for an in-depth analysis. Based on national data analysis, the final results indicated that livelihood resources (LR), agglomeration effects (AE), location and transportation (LT), cultural/natural landscapes (CN), and economic circumstance (EC) are essential elements for successful rural development. Additionally, EC was the only exogenous element, while the remaining elements were endogenous. Furthermore, the villages with better EC presented urbanization rates of 38∼82 % and Engel coefficients of 29∼41 % in their counties; exemplary sites lacking LR, CN, LT, and AE account for 13.13 %, 19.19 %, 26.26 %, and 60.61 % respectively, so the indispensability of these elements decreases progressively in sequence. Only 2 % of villages rely on single element for success, therefore, the composite pattern of development element was also critical; 10 out of 16 types were found to successfully facilitate village development, among which, the type of R-a-L-C (32.32 %) and R-A-L-C (15.15 %) were considered as the greatest potential patterns for vitalization. Finally, by means of the diagnostic system, the ratio of representative villages for high-low potential in Dehua County is evenly split; then, development paths, and land use policies that match with paths were proposed, on the basis of development potential and “element-composite” condition of themselves.     

中国传统思想影响下的现代居住建筑探微——以万科·第五园为例

以万科第五园为例,从该项目的背景入手,其在建筑设计、园林景观、处理新旧建筑等方面如何演绎中国传统元素进行分析,从而为探索现代人居的中国传统思想模式,如何体现中国传统居住建筑的精髓和内涵提供借鉴和经验。     

土工结构应力、变形的弹粘塑性有限元分析

根据土工结构的结构特点、施工过程及可能的运行情况,基于弹粘塑性势理论开发研制了相应的有限元计算程序。作为算例,应用该程序分析研究了广州珠江堤防改造工程在几种主要工况下的变形及应力状态,对其稳定性进行了讨论,并提出了建议。     

考虑批量订货的易腐农产品配送中心选址方法

为提高物流管理绩效、降低物流运作成本,考虑到配送中心的批量订货和作业能力限制,建立了易腐农产品配送中心选址问题的0-1整数非线性规划模型,并利用Lingo 9.0软件进行了模型求解.利用该模型可以确定配送中心的位置和各配送中心与零售店之间的配送关系,并可得到配送中心的订货周期和订货批量.最后,通过算例验证了模型的有效性.     

介质涂层金属圆柱体有限元法电磁散射特性的分析

本文以有限元方法(FEM)为基础,结合边界积分方程(BIM)这一开域边界条件的混合有限元算法实现对目标散射特性问题的分析。本文以一个介质涂敷金属圆柱为例应用有限元/边界积分方程法(FEM-BIM)实现计算结果,并与精确结果进行对比,吻合很好。     

基于数据元的装备保障数据集成研究

介绍了数据元的基本概念及其重要作用,并对装备保障数据元的编制过程进行了说明。在装备保障数据集成需求分析的基础上,构建了基于数据元的装备保障数据集成框架,并对数据字典、基本表、数据交换等进行了分析与设计。