国内金融风险预警系统研究综述及综合经营下的EWS框架构建

文章通过对1997年以来国内在金融风险预警系统研究文献的梳理和评价,以研究我国金融风险预警系统研究领域的弱势及空白领域。在借鉴国内外成熟和最新的理论成果及预警方法实践的基础上,结合当前我国金融业综合经营趋势及该趋势下风险来源、传染路径的特殊性,探讨了适用于金融综合经营趋势下的风险预警框架的构建。     

基层银行提升经济增加值的现实手段探究

提升基层银行的经济增加值,是一个涉及经营理念、管理方式、经营策略、结构调整、经济资本配置等诸多方面的复杂问题.当前基层银行应结合自身特点,紧紧围绕上级行以经济增加值为核心的绩效考评办法,以价值增值和资本节约为原则,以全面预算管理体系的建立健全为平台,以内部资金转移价格和经济资本配置系数为指引,摆布好规模、效率和风险的关系.调整优化经营策略,努力提升经济增加值.     

The evolving 5G case study in United States unilateral spectrum planning and policy

This paper tracks increasingly aggressive initiatives by the United States government to reallocate spectrum on an expedited and unilateral basis well before conclusion of inter-governmental coordination. Rather than embrace the customary commitment to achieve consensus on global spectrum allocations at the International Telecommunication Union (“ITU”), the Federal Communications Commission (“FCC”) has auctioned off large blocks of frequencies for the next generation (“5G”) of wireless services.The FCC might have framed its first 5G auction, reassigning Ultra High Frequency (“UHF”) spectrum, as a one-time deviation from compliance with long standing, intergovernmental coordination procedures. These frequencies have ideal signal propagation characteristics and the Commission could use financial incentives—unavailable in most nations—to expedite “repacking” by incumbent broadcasters willing to move, share or abandon spectrum in exchange for ample financial compensation. However, the FCC has continued to auction off 5G spectrum on grounds that it must find ways to abate an acute shortage of wireless bandwidth and doing so will regain or maintain global leadership in wireless technologies. This paper offers a critical rebuke to unilateral spectrum management, because the short-term benefits expected by the U. S. government likely will be offset by countervailing harms to 5G manufacturers, carriers and consumers. The paper tracks fractious preparation for the ITU's 2019 World Radio Conference by the U.S. delegation and the mixed record achieved there. Additionally, the paper explains how injecting trade, industrial policy and national security issues at the ITU can trigger more delays and disputes, including possible retaliation by nations displeased with U.S. efforts to subvert traditional technology optimization goals.A worst case scenario has the ITU deadlocked and unable to reach closure on “mission critical” spectrum planning issues at World Radio Conferences, convened every four years. The paper concludes that costs and likely challenges to the efficacy and legitimacy of the ITU will reduce the benefits accruing from the FCC's unilateral, spectrum planning campaign.     

国际碳基金经营风险管理的经验与启示

当前,国际碳基金运营体系日趋成熟。本文总结了国际碳基金在治理运营模式、风险评价、风险控制与项目退出四个方面的运营经验;并结合实际,提出了中国进一步发展碳基金的建议。     

基于“三”分析的上市商业银行经营绩效评价

安全性、流动性和盈利性被称为商业银行经营的“三性”原则。本文基于改进的熵值法,对我国14家上市商业银行的三性指标进行综合评价。评价结果表明,我同股份制商业银行的经营绩效要普遍优于圈有商业银行。     

中国社会保障战略储备基金管理中存在的问题及对策分析

全国社会保障基金是中国社会保障战略储备基金,其安全性以及保值增值状况对中国社会保障的发展具有重要战略意义。我国社保基金不断发展壮大,同时,实行直接投资和间接投资相结合的管理模式,保证了较好的安全性和较高的收益率。但是,仍然存在着资金来源不稳定、保值增值能力不足以及信息披露机制不完善等问题,因此,应完善基金来源规划、壮大基金规模,增强基金保值增值、抗风险能力,并完善信息披露机制。     

高校辅导员队伍建设的现状审视与路径优化

随着国内外政治形势的变化,社会主义精神文明建设逐步加强,高校人才培养要求不断提高,高校辅导员队伍建设的职业化、专业化发展成为大势所趋,但辅导员队伍建设较快发展的同时也暴露出一些现实问题,审视现状,高校辅导员队伍建设一方面要坚持不移的走职业化建设、专业化培养、专家化使用的道路,这既是现代社会职业发展之需,也是新时期加强与改善大学生思想政治教育之需,更是实现辅导员队伍可持续性发展之需,另一方面应直面现存问题,在解决方案上,争取观念性和制度性的突破,实现辅导员队伍建设的路径优化。     

经济驱动力与GDP增长关系的实证研究———基于经济动力结构优化视角

以改革开放30年以来的投资、消费、出口与经济增长为研究对象,分析三驾马车对我国经济在不同阶段的动力作用。结合现实经济发展,剖析了各阶段的动力特点。下一阶段,要通过调整三驾马车的增长质量,提高经济发展水平,实现经济增长动力的结构优化。     

区域性产业优化选择的金融支持路径及政策研究——基于上海的个案分析

产业优化选择的主要目标是从低附加值的一般性产业样本中,遴选出具有高附加值潜力的战略性新兴产业,产业优化选择是实现产业结构优化调整与升级目标的重要前提,而产业优化选择必须依赖于金融支持。文章在金融发展视角下,以分析产业优化选择的原则与思路为切入点,提出金融支持产业优化选择的基本路径,在此基础上,选取上海市作为区域样本,分别从政策性金融层面与市场性金融层面系统性地提出区域性产业优化选择的金融支持政策。该研究将为政府制定科学高效的产业发展政策与金融财政政策,提供重要的理论指导与决策参考,具有非常重要的理论与现实意义。     

Islamic and conventional portfolios optimization under investor sentiment states: Bayesian vs Markowitz portfolio analysis

This paper investigates the portfolio optimization under investor’s sentiment states of Hidden Markov model and over a different time horizon during the period 2004–2016. To compare the efficient portfolios of the Islamic and the conventional stock indexes, we have employed two approaches: the Bayesian and Markowitz mean-variance. Our findings reveal that the Bayesian efficient frontier of Islamic and conventional stock portfolios is affected by the investor’s sentiment state and the time horizon. Our findings also indicate that the investor’s sentiment regimes change the Islamic and the conventional optimal diversified portfolios.Moreover, the results show that the potential diversification benefits seem to be more important when using the Bayesian approach than when applying the Markowitz approach. This finding is valid for the bearish, depressed, bullish and calm states in Islamic stock markets. However, the diversification of potential portfolios is significant only for the bullish and the bubble states in the conventional financial markets.The findings of the study provided additional evidence for investors to exploit googling investor sentiment states to evaluate the portfolio performance and make an optimal portfolio allocation.