“7.21”涪江突发水污染事件应急监测分析

2011年7月21日,四川省松潘县境内涪江发生锰污染事件,重庆市水文局开展了以锰和氨氮为对象的水质应急监测。通过与上游环境监测机构加强联系,了解污染物动态情况及上游水库蓄放水情况,同时收集涪江的洪水预报模型和实时水情信息,预测了污染物的传播时间。监测结果表明,由于受洪水及沿程吸附作用影响,锰浓度在重庆段恢复至正常值;氨氮浓度的波动可能是由于沿程其他污染物进入河道中所引起的。由于缺乏水质污染模型,未能对污染物衰减情况作出预报。     

东江下游水环境重金属污染特征及现状评价

测定东江下游包括东江干流、东江支流和东莞运河的8个监测断面的水质及表层沉积物中As、Ni、Pb、Cd、Cu、Zn、Cr和Hg的质量比,并应用地积累指数法和潜在生态风险评价法对东江下游水环境的重金属污染潜在风险进行评价。结果表明,东江下游表层沉积物中重金属积累明显,Cd的地积累指数对应的污染程度为极强;Hg为中—强;Cu、Zn在东江干流为中,在东江支流和东莞运河达到强—极强。潜在生态风险评价显示,东江下游区段(包括东江干流、东江支流和东莞运河)的潜在生态危害指数接近或超过300,表明重金属引起的东江下游潜在生态风险程度达到了重度;存在潜在生态风险的重金属类物质主要是Cd、Hg和Cu,其危害程度由大至小依次为:Cd>Hg>Cu。水质监测结果显示,东江下游枯水期水质堪忧,Hg已超出地表水Ⅲ级水质标准。     

南四湖水质空间分布特征分析与改善效果评估

根据南四湖2006年、2007年、2010年和2011年4次90个采样点的水质空间分布监测数据,采用Surfer 8.0软件绘制南四湖水质空间分布等值线图,进行南四湖及分湖区水质指标的综合比较分析和平均综合污染指数的计算与污染控制效果评估。结果表明:南四湖COD、NH3-N、TP、TN和CODMn等指标的空间分布具有北高南低的非均一性特点;2010—2011年比2006—2007年枯水期各水质指标的平均浓度下降率为38.3%,整体提高了1～2个水质类别;按GB 3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》中Ⅲ类标准相应的平均综合污染指数进行评价,达标和基本达标湖区的比例达到63.3%;2010—2011年枯水期南四湖主要污染物分担率由大到小排序依次为TP、COD、TN、CODMn、NH3-N;水质平均综合污染指数与电导率存在很好的相关性和北高南低的污染特点,说明南四湖水污染物仍然以外源排放为主。     

南四湖表层底泥重金属空间分布及污染程度评价

测试南四湖湖区29个表层底泥中重金属Hg、Cd、Cr、Pb、Ni、Cu、Zn和类金属As的质量比,得到南四湖湖区重金属污染的空间分布特征。结合地质积累指数法和潜在生态风险指数法,对南四湖重金属污染程度进行评价。结果表明,南四湖已受到重金属元素的污染,属于中等程度污染湖泊,其中以As、Hg、Cd、Pb元素污染严重。除了As、Cd元素在下级湖表层底泥中的质量比略高外,其他重金属元素在上级湖的污染程度普遍比在下级湖的高;二级坝以北的昭阳湖湖区潜在生态危害最为严重,其次是南阳湖、微山湖、独山湖和二级坝以南的昭阳湖湖区。     

基于逆建模技术的淮河干流长台关-息县段入河污染负荷评估

以淮河上游长台关-息县段为研究对象,以2008年为算例,根据研究区域汇流特征,建立分布式源模型,基于贝叶斯统计方法进行逆建模,利用断面水质序列实测资料,测算区域入河污染负荷及主要水质因子降解系数。结果表明:淮河上游长台关-息县段NH3-N、COD入河污染负荷总量分别为1.7万t/a、8.9万t/a;受主要入流面源污染负荷季节性影响,NH3-N入河污染负荷为657.55～2 014.99 t/月,COD入河污染负荷为3897.73～13311.83 t/月;研究区域水体环境NH3-N、COD降解系数分别为0.356/d、0.202/d,NH3-N、COD负荷模拟值和实测值的相关系数分别为0.943、0.979。     

我国内陆核电发展过程中水资源安全相关问题

核电作为一种清洁能源,在我国的能源结构调整和节能减排中起着举足轻重的作用,但其潜在的放射性污染会对水资源安全构成一定的威胁。由于自然环境和社会因素的巨大差异,内陆核电的水资源安全问题更加凸显。在简要介绍了核电站运行原理及安全设计后,阐述了国外内陆核电的状况。从放射性液态流出物污染、冷却水污染和硼污染三方面分析了内陆核电站运行对水资源安全的影响以及我国的控制措施。从水资源管理思路、水资源论证深度、水资源应急响应机制三个方面论述了我国内陆核电水资源管理中亟待加强的方面。     

Pollution Externalities in a Model of Endogenous Fertility and Growth

An endogenous growth model with human capital formation, pollution caused by production of consumption goods, and endogenous fertility decisions made by altruistic agents with infinite horizons is presented. Consequences for optimal policy of modelling fertility as an explicit decision variable are examined. Because ordinary lump-sum transfers to individuals are no longer neutral, either revenue from a pollution tax must be redistributed to dynasties (working as an implicit tax on child births), or lump-sum transfers must be supplemented with an explicit fertility tax. Alternatively, the government can avoid distortions of the fertility decisions by maintaining an appropriate public debt. When abatement is highly productive, it can be optimal to subsidize fertility in order to increase total production.     

Do constraints created by economic growth targets benefit sustainable development? Evidence from China

An economic growth target is a declaration by policy authorities of commitment to that target and the corresponding allocation of resources. The constraints created by economic growth target are an important economic management method in China, which has helped China's economy to achieve remarkable achievements. However, it has also brought about serious environmental problems, threatening China's sustainable development. Using the data about economic growth targets in the work reports of 30 Chinese provincial governments from 2006 to 2017, this paper constructs several spatial measurement methods, such as the spatial Durbin model, to examine the constraints created by economic growth target's impacts on air pollution. The main conclusions are as follows. First, a significant “U-shaped” relationship exists between the constraints created by economic growth targets and air pollution. Second, the spatial Durbin model analysis revealed that PM_2.5 across China's provinces display significant positive spatial spillover effects and spatial agglomeration characteristics. Third, the direct, indirect, and total effects of constraints created by economic growth targets on air pollution are all statistically significant and depict a “U shape.” Finally, the constraints created by economic growth targets have an apparent threshold effect on air pollution, and the inhibiting effects increase with human capital and industrial restructuring. However, with the increase in foreign direct investments, constraints created by economic growth targets may increase air pollution. The conclusions of this paper are of great significance for improving the management of local government economic growth targets and sustainable development.     

我国软件外包承接城市效率评价与驱动因素研究

就 业问题、环境污染以及从业人员研发能力下降已经成为制约软件外包承接城市发展的瓶颈问 题。文章运用DEA方法构建考虑非期望产出和非合意变量的软件外包承接效率评价模型，重 点比较不同模型下我国软件外包承接城市效率的差异，并引入Tobit回归分析软件外包承接 城市效率的驱动因素。研究发现：我国软件外包承接城市的投入产出组合在逐步优化，且东 部沿海城市的效率值明显优于中西部城市，其中大连市的效率值始终为1，处于生产的前沿 面。另外，人才竞争力对软件外包承接城市效率有显著的正向影响，信息技术基础设施竞争力与承接效率的关系呈显著负相关。     

The effects of haze pollution on stock performances: evidence from China

Haze pollution has become the most important environmental issue in China in recent years. Using the data of PM_2.5 concentration and stocks of listed companies located in Beijing between 2010 and 2014, this article investigates the effects of haze pollution on stock performances. Empirical results indicate that haze pollution has significant negative effects on stock returns and significant positive effects on stock volatilities, through the channel of investors’ mood. Furthermore, the effects of haze pollution on stock returns emerge gradually and the effects of haze pollution on stock volatilities weaken gradually over time during a trading day.