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1.
OLESYA GRISHCHENKO SARAH MOUABBI JEAN‐PAUL RENNE 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2019,51(5):1053-1096
We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored. 相似文献
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依据城镇化发展过程中要素空间集聚理论,展开区域经济发展的空间经济结构研究。通过城市引力、克鲁格曼指数计算,比较分析城镇群内部城市吸引力和城市产业分布的差异性,通过人口与生产空间分布集中度指标和不一致系数的测算,分析了山西省城镇群空间要素集聚效应。研究表明,山西省的城镇群规划与要素空间集聚趋势整体一致,城市间产业分工体系基本形成,城镇群的要素集聚效应明显,但人口与生产分布仍存在不一致性。研究认为,山西省城镇群发展应该继续明确各城市的产业分工和特色,引导劳动力和资本要素的合理流动,实现人口与生产空间分布的一致。 相似文献
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《Food Policy》2019
In recent decades, agricultural production in the U.S. has continued to shift to large-scale operations, raising concerns about the economic viability of small and midsized farms. To understand whether economies of size provided an incentive for the consolidation of production, the study estimates the total factor productivity (TFP) of five size classes of grain-producing farms in the U.S. Heartland (Corn Belt) region. Using quinquennial Agricultural Census data from 1982 to 2012 the study also compares TFP growth rates across farm sizes to gain insight into whether observed productivity differences are likely to persist. The finding of a strong positive relationship between farm size and TFP suggests that consolidation of production has contributed to recent aggregate productivity growth in the crop sector. The study estimates the extent to which sectoral productivity growth can be attributed to structural change versus other factors including technological change. The study also explores some tradeoffs associated with policies that raise the productivity of small versus large farms. 相似文献
5.
《管理科学学报(英文)》2021,6(2):235-245
We investigate the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk, where the network effect is incorporated. We analyze three kinds of interbank networks, namely, random networks, small-world networks and scale-free networks. We show that the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk depends on interbank network structures and shock types. First, systemic risk increases first and then reduces with the increase of the level of portfolio diversification in the case of the individual shock. Second, in the case of the systemic shock, systemic risk reduces with the increases of the level of portfolio diversification. Third, banking systems with scale-free network structures are the most stable, and those with small-world network structures are the most vulnerable. 相似文献
6.
《Journal of Great Lakes research》2022,48(3):645-658
Rip currents near coastal structures commonly occur in Lake Michigan in the Great Lakes region of the United States. Lack of timely warning due to undocumented characteristics of rip currents and no assessment tool can contribute to tragic drownings incidents. In this paper, we characterized rip current occurrences near breakwater structures and developed an assessment tool for providing timely rip current warnings to beachgoers at the study site, City of Port Washington, WI. Characteristics of rip currents near the structure were observed from field measurements or visual images. Deflection rip currents had speeds of ~ 0.2 m/s and lasted for several hours. The rip current occurrences were associated with environmental proxies. It was found that rip currents can occur even when the water appears calm near the structure. A Structure Rip Checklist and Assessment Matrix (SRiCAM) with a four-tiered risk was developed and validated using observations. Furthermore, the SRiCAM was integrated into cyberinfrastructure with a data contingency plan to provide real-time warnings to the public. The applicability of the SRiCAM to other locations across Lake Michigan was further tested and results are promising. Overall, the SRiCAM has the potential to be widely extended to foster recreational water safety and resilience to rip current hazards in the Great Lakes. 相似文献
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以中国2013年以来实行的碳排放交易试点政策作为准自然实验事件,基于2000-2017年中国30个省市的面板数据,运用双重差分法实证检验碳排放交易制度的节能减排效应及影响机制。研究发现,碳排放交易制度有利于实现中国经济“节能”与“减排”的双重目标,并通过了一系列稳健性检验;作用机制检验表明,能源效率提升和能源结构转型都是碳排放交易制度实现节能减排目标的重要路径;能源效率提升在碳排放交易制度实现“节能”和“减排”中分别发挥了10.19%和5.93%的作用,而能源结构转型分别发挥了48.87%和52.95%的作用。这意味着中国碳排放交易制度实现节能减排的主要动力来自能源结构转型,而非能源效率提升。能源结构转型涉及问题更加宏观和深层,这为中国加快推进节能减排进程,特别是完成2030年碳达峰和2060年碳中和的国际承诺提供政策启示。 相似文献
9.
Using an extended LHARG model proposed by Majewski et al. (2015, J Econ, 187, 521–531), we derive the closed-form pricing formulas for both the Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX term structure and VIX futures with different maturities. Our empirical results suggest that the quarterly and yearly components of lagged realized volatility should be added into the model to capture the long-term volatility dynamics. By using the realized volatility based on high-frequency data, the proposed model provides superior pricing performance compared with the classic Heston–Nandi GARCH model under a variance-dependent pricing kernel, both in-sample and out-of-sample. The improvement is more pronounced during high volatility periods. 相似文献
10.
Feng Guo 《Review of Financial Economics》2019,37(2):297-321
Following the approach of interpolation, this paper proposes the multiple exponential decay model to fit yield curves for both the U.S. TIPS market and the conventional Treasury security market. Several estimation methods, including the unconstrained/constrained nonlinear minimization, quadratic programming, and the iterative linear least squares, are applied to estimate the unknown parameters according to different curve‐fitting purposes. Comparisons between the proposed model and the alternatives show that the multiple exponential decay successfully (1) adapts to a variety of shapes associated with yield curves, (2) (partially) keeps in line with the economic interpretations of Nelson–Siegel summarized by Diebold and Li ( 2006 ), and (3) dominates the competing models in curve‐fitting performance measured by mean fitted‐price errors over the sample period. In addition, the exact specification of a nonparametric interpolation model is pinned down by applying three statistical tools, which enable us to jointly take into account validity, optimality, and parsimoniousness of the proposed model. 相似文献