Do Fundamentals Explain the Behaviour of the Swedish Real Effective Exchange Rate?

This study examines the long‐run relationship between the real effective exchange rate and its fundamental determinants, and derives a real effective equilibrium exchange rate for the Swedish krona. Our results indicate that the krona was severely overvalued in late 1992, when the fixed exchange rate regime was abandoned. By the end of 2000 the krona was undervalued by approximately 5 percent, given the prevailing economic conditions. Arithmetic examples of suitable SEK/EUR conversion rates are calculated under various assumptions to provide a guideline if Sweden were to adopt the euro in the future.     

Inflation,interest and exchange rates in the transition1

Central and Eastern European economies have made extraordinary progress in their trade and exchange regimes. Surprisingly, instant convertibility was established for a great variety of exchange rate regimes. In spite of diversity, all these countries have followed a common pattern: severe initial undervaluation - the cost of speed and unrestricted trade - followed by rapid real revaluation and incipient protectionism. Since 1994 in many cases an embarrass de richesse has appeared: high capital inflows which are either inflationary or costly to sterilize. A major cause of these flows - or at any rate of the high cost of sterilization - is the presence of significant interest rate differentials higher than required to cover the risk of devaluation. These are the necessary consequence of a policy of positive real interest rates and of real revaluation from excessively undervalued exchange rates. Lower interest rates are recommended, both to stem financial capital inflows and to reduce the cost of their sterilization.     

Sources of Bank Interest Rate Risk

We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991–1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks.     

浅谈企业信用风险管理

社会主义经济是信用经济,没有信用,就没有秩序,市场经济就不能健康的发展。加强企业信用管理的风险控制是现代企业的一项重要任务。进入WTO标志着中国经济更加开放,国际贸易更加纷繁复杂,在机遇透人的同时,企业也潜伏着越来越大的风险,尤其是企业信用风险。因此强化企业的信用风险管理,建立与完善企业内部信用风险管理体制,仍然是企业面临的一项重要课题,笔者从多方面阐述了企业信用风险形成的原因以及如何建立风险管理机制等问题。     

当代美国住宅的思考

美国2000年新建住宅投资4251亿美元，占固定资产投资的21．3％；住宅直接消费为9588亿美元，占GDP的9．71％；年存量住宅为1．16亿套(户)，空置率为5．9％。购买新房一般中值价为80美元／ft^2，一套住宅(2000ft^2)中值房价为16万美元；按中值计算贷款购房的支出与收入比为1：4．7；在美国仍有3500万户居民租用住宅。     

近10年日本宏观经济的理论分析与展望

近10年日本经济停滞不前，一方面对外经济状况不佳：日元对美元汇率技术下跌。且不断加剧；出口增长放缓，贸易顺差连续下滑，另一方面国内宏观经济状况严峻；失业率不断上升，内需不振；通货紧缩逐步加深；工业增长持续低迷，工业生产与效益下降，究其原因，用内外均衡模型理论分析得出，日本经济没有达到均衡的0点，内外均衡遭到了破坏，而展望今后的日本经济和日元走势，基于日本财政状况的恶化及货币政策的失效，估计还不会导致资本的大量外流。也不会对资本流动产生重要的影响，而结构改革也将可能引致日元升值。     

Persistence of Output Fluctuations Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

In a recent paper, Giugale and Korobow (2000) present evidence that suggests that the time required by output to return to trend following a financial shock is faster under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate. In this paper, we use vector autoregression models to measure the persistence properties of output for a number of countries in the Asia–Pacific region. Our results suggest that output persistence is not uniquely related to a country's choice of exchange rate regime. The two countries in our sample with the least persistent output following a financial shock are Australia, where the exchange rate is fully flexible, and Hong Kong, where it is rigidly fixed via a currency board.     

探析汇率制度、购买力平价及国际货币供求因素对人民币汇率的长期影响

影响人民币汇率的因素很多,但其作用时间的长短却不同。文章通过对中国的汇率制度、购买力平价及国际货币供求的分析,来说明其对汇率的长期影响。     

低扬程大流量泵站单机流量测量

对传统流量测量方法进行了综述，提出了采用内贴式超声波7510系列便携式流量计对低扬程大流量泵站单机流量进行测量是十分有效的。对内贴式超声波7510系列便携式流量计的测量原理、性能和安装方法进行了阐述，并结合南水北调东线江都第二抽水站进行了流量测量，对其测量结果进行了误差分析。     

封闭式基金折价率分析

目前我国封闭式基金的折价现象日趋明显,文章从不同角度对我国封闭式基金的折价率进行了分析,分析结果显示:基金规模与折价率分析存在明显的正相关效应;上市时间与折价率先呈负相关随后转为正相关;基金分红与折价率存在负相关效应等等。