三峡水库泥沙淤积预估

 在三峡工程可行性论证阶段，利用泥沙数学模型对三峡水库各种蓄水方案库区泥沙冲淤变化进行了预估。本文根据大量计算成果对三峡水库不同蓄水位方案的库区泥沙淤积量、淤积沿程分布、排沙率、保留库容、洪水位抬高等主要问题进行了论述，并分析了水库运用过程中泥沙冲淤变化特点。     

我国企业慈善捐赠税收政策激励效应——基于2007年度我国A股上市公司数据的实证研究

税收政策是各国政府普遍采用的引导企业慈善捐赠的主要工具之一。基于2007年度我国A股上市公司慈善捐赠相关数据,采用双对数回归模型,对企业慈善捐赠的税收政策激励效应进行实证检验。研究结果表明:税收是影响企业慈善捐赠行为的主要因素之一,企业慈善捐赠支出与企业所得税税率显著正相关;企业慈善捐赠行为受利润水平制约,企业慈善捐赠支出与企业净利润显著正相关。因此,要充分发挥税收政策的引导作用,保护企业慈善捐赠的积极性。     

The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?

This paper studies the determinants of the euro exchange rate volatility during the European sovereign debt crisis, allowing a role for macroeconomic fundamentals, policy actions and the public debate by policy makers. It finds that the euro exchange rate mainly danced to its own tune, with a particularly low explanatory power for macroeconomic fundamentals. The findings of the paper also suggest that financial markets might have been less reactive to the public debate by policy makers than previously feared. Still, there are instances where exchange rate volatility increased in response to news, such as on days when several politicians from AAA-rated countries went public with negative statements, suggesting that communication by policy makers at times of crisis should be cautious about triggering undesirable financial market reactions.     

关于降低我国失业率的构想

从我国失业率的变化趋势看，城市登记失业率、真实失业率都呈上升趋势。究其原因，主要是劳动力供给过剩所使然。而失业率过高，无论是国家还是居民家庭都会为此付出巨大代价。为了减少失业、降低失业率，我们必须从劳动力供求两个方面努力，一方面要积极发展经济，扩大劳动力需求；另一方面尽可能地缩小劳动力供给。     

新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算模型及其实证分析

本文依据2009年国务院发布的《关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》,运用保险精算的方法,构建出新农保替代率精算模型,并依据该模型对新农保替代率进行实证分析。通过分析提出以下建议:以农民人均纯收入作为缴费基数,实行比例费率制;鼓励农民尽早开始参保并保持长期缴费;鼓励参保农民选择较高的档次标准缴费;新农保个人账户基金应当在适当情况下进行市场化投资运营;继续强化土地保障和家庭保障的作用。     

城镇居民医疗保险的真实保障水平研究——基于广东典型地区的实证分析

选取广东省三个代表性地区的大规模医疗保险数据库,采用"实际补偿比"作为真实保障水平的测度,对居民医保的真实保障水平及其主要影响因素进行了实证分析。居民医保的真实保障水平总体上还比较低,欠发达地区的平均住院实际补偿比在30%-40%之间,即便是发达地区也只有55.6%;起付线、封顶线、基金支付比例、医院等级选择以及年龄等个体特征都是保障水平的重要影响因素。提出要建立长效稳定的筹资增长机制,完善补偿机制并适当体现对弱势群体的照顾,并通过采取控制"三大目录"以外的医疗费用支出等措施尽可能缩小真实保障水平与名义保障水平的差距。     

Inflation persistence and exchange rate regime: Implications for dynamic adjustment to shocks in a small open economy

The paper examines implications of inflation persistence for business cycle dynamics following terms of trade shock in a small oil producing economy, under inflation targeting and exchange rate targeting regimes. It is shown that due to the ‘Walters critique’ effect, the country’s adjustment paths are slow and cyclical if there is a significant backward-looking element in the inflation dynamics and the exchange rate is fixed. It is also shown that such cyclical adjustment paths are moderated if there is a high proportion of forward-looking price setters in the economy, so that when the Phillips curve becomes completely forward-looking cyclicality in adjustment paths disappears and the response of the real exchange rate becomes hump-shaped. In contrast, with an independent monetary policy, irrespective of the degree of inflation persistence, flexible exchange rate allows to escape severe cycles, which results in a smooth response of the real exchange rate.     

利率市场化对我国商业银行的挑战及应对策略

利率市场化是我国金融市场国际化非常重要的一步。利率市场化使中国银行业面临严峻考验。面对净利息收入减少、利率波动提高、银行竞争加剧、信用风险提高以及系统性风险加大,我国商业银行必须调整盈利结构,创新产品,拓宽利润增长点。     

“汇改”后人民币汇率制度分析

自2005年7月21日人民币汇率形成机制进行重大改革以来,人民币对美元的基准汇率一直处于单边升值的态势.从宏观经济特征和模型实证分析中可以得出,虽然"汇改"后人民币货币篮子发挥了一定的作用,人民币汇率的灵活性在逐渐增强,但主要还是参考美元汇率来进行调节,属于"软钉住美元的汇率制度".     

Effects of government spending shocks in China,Japan, and Korea

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the effects of government spending shocks on various key macro variables in China, Korea, and Japan using structural VAR models. The main empirical findings are as follows. Government spending multipliers of all three countries are far larger than 1 in recent years. The effectiveness of fiscal expansion has not changed markedly in China but substantially increased in Korea (after the Asian financial crisis) and Japan (during zero lower bound period). Increases in the effectiveness of fiscal expansion are associated with changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy regimes and institutions of these countries. Among the three countries, the government spending multiplier is relatively large in China but relatively small in Japan in recent years. Although the effects on exchange rate and trade balance vary across countries and sample periods, real exchange rate tends to depreciate, whereas trade balance tends to improve under flexible exchange rate regimes. Some empirical findings are consistent with standard theory, but others are not.

Abbreviations: NK: New Keynesian VAR: Vector Autoregressive ZLB: Zero Lower Bound