Assessing the Vulnerability to Price Spikes in Agricultural Commodity Markets

We examine empirically the predictability of conditions associated with a higher probability of a price spike in agricultural commodity markets. We find that the forward spread is the most significant indicator of probable price jumps in maize, wheat and soybeans futures markets, a result which is in line with the ‘Theory of Storage’. We additionally show that some option-implied variables add significant predictive power when added to the more standard information variable set. Overall, the estimated probabilities of large price increases from our probit models exhibit significant correlations with historical sudden market upheavals in agricultural markets.     

基于批发价及期权契约的应急物资采储优化

针对应急物资需求,为了降低生产、采购及存储成本,增强物资存储能力,提高供需匹配及调配效率,依次提出了基于批发价契约、第一类批发价与期权综合契约、第二类批发价与期权综合的政企联合采储流程,在此基础上,从建立应急物资信息化平台,加强5G、大数据及区块链等技术应用,加强需求预测及库存控制,加强相关人员培训等方面提出了应急物资保障优化措施。     

横泉水库石料场分析与评价

通过石站头料场与西相王料场工程地质勘察取样试验成果及采用平行断面法储量计算结果，对两料场的选用给出了分析与评价。     

Hydrological Impacts of Flood Storage and Management on Irrigation Water Abstraction in Upper Ewaso Ng’iro River Basin, Kenya

The upper Ewaso Ng’iro basin, which starts from the central highlands of Kenya and stretches northwards transcending different climatic zones, has experienced decreasing river flows for the last two decades. The Naro Moru sub-basin is used to demonstrate the looming water crisis in this water scarce river basin. The objective of the study was to show the extent of dry seasons’ irrigation water abstractions on river flows, and to assess the hydrological impact of flood storage on temporal water distribution and irrigation water management. Decreasing river flows are attributed to over-abstraction mainly for irrigating horticultural crops. The number of abstractors has increased four times over a period of 10 years. The amount of water abstracted has also increased by 64% over the last 5 years. Moreover, the proportion of unauthorized abstractions has been increasing over the years, currently at about 80% and 95% during high and low flows respectively. This has resulted in alarming conflicts among various water users. The situation is aggravated by low irrigation efficiency (25–40%) and inadequate flood storage facilities. The paper analyzes over 40 years’ observed river flow data and 5-year interval water abstraction monitoring records for 15 years. It assesses whether flood storage and management, can reduce dry seasons’ irrigation water abstractions without significantly reducing river flows to affect the sustenance of natural ecosystems downstream. The results demonstrate that flood storage and management can reduce water abstraction and increase river flows during the dry seasons, without significantly reducing high flows to affect the downstream water users. However, socio-economic, hydrological and environmental implications should be considered if a sustainable river basin water resources management strategy is to be developed and implemented. The case study of Naro Moru sub-basin is representative of the situation in the other sub-basins, and hence can be taken as a pilot basin for developing an integrated water resources management strategy that will foster socio-economic development with minimal negative hydrological impacts in the water scarce upper Ewaso Ng’iro river basin.     

论信息技术在仓储业发展中的作用

仓储业既是物流业的重要组成部分，又是第三产业中的独立部门．中国物流业走向现代化离不开仓储业的发展。仓储配送设施和设备是企业正常运作的保证，又是企业提高效益的基础。而要降低仓储配送成本，提高服务质量，保证高效率的运作。必须对仓储配送的设施与设备进行科学合理的管理，随着科学技术的进步，信息技术在仓储业中日益发挥着重要作用。     

军地结合实现军事仓储物资的常储常新

军地仓储物资的共储共用是军地物流互动的重要内容．通过对我军物资仓储现状中存在的主要问题分析。研究了军地结合实现物资共储共用的特点以及实现的主要方法．通过军地物资共储共用既能够有效地促进市场经济下的仓储行业活力，更能够为部队的仓储保障的改革创造更多的发展机遇。     

Application of a Hydrologic Model Considering Rainwater Storage to Analyze Storm-induced Landslides in a Forest Catchment

In this study, a conceptual hydrologic model was applied for the analysis of storm-induced landslides, which were affected by typhoons in 2004, in the forest catchments of Ehime Prefecture, Japan. Through the model, hydrologic conditions such as rainfall intensity, rainwater storage, and soil moisture behavior in 2004 were obtained and compared with other 19 years (1985 ∼ 2003). Furthermore, the relationship between landslide occurrence and hydrologic phenomena in the catchments were assessed. Results of this study indicated that soil moisture, excess rainfall storage combined with rainfall intensity, and its duration in the forest were the key elements for the occurrence of landslides. The hydrologic model in this study was able to represent hydrologic phenomena reasonably and it can be used for the estimation of discharge, soil moisture content, and water storage in catchments. The concept of this model is available to be applied in other areas and can be expected to provide important information on soil moisture behavior for forecasting and preventing landslide disasters.     

考虑抽水蓄能电站的电力市场均衡模型

抽水蓄能电站是水力发电的一种特殊形式，它同时具有发电和蓄能2种功能。文中建立了一种计及这些特点的电力市场均衡模型。该模型把一天24 h分为蓄能、发电和停机3个时段，在蓄能和发电时段分别把抽水蓄能电站当做负荷和发电机处理。通过6节点算例验证了抽水蓄能电站的削峰填谷及降低负荷高峰时段电价的功能;证明了改善抽水蓄能机组效率不仅能够提高其自身收益，而且能够有效提高负荷及整体的社会收益，在抽水蓄能机组较多的市场中，这种效益尤其明显。     

广蓄B厂6号机泵工况运行机械故障停机分析及处理

针对广蓄B厂6号机在泵工况运行时因调速器液压系统压力油罐低油位故障导致机组机械故障停机的原因进行了详细分析，采用更换手动补气阀及紧固油泵测压阀接头等措施使故障得以彻底解决，并对调速器液压系统的此类问题提出解决思路和方法。     

RESEARCH ON THE FLOATING OIL STORAGE SYSTEM FOR STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE

The problem of petroleum safety is closely related to national politics and economics security and becomes one of key for discussion in China. The floating oil storage system has been proposed as a new facility for Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in our country. There are some differences in solving this problem. Although many of domestic research institutions are studying the project of SPR, the research is separate, and lack of comprehensive consideration,and fails to make a complete and scientific demonstration in many aspects, such as oil storage capacity, selection of storage sites, storage facilities, technologic and economic feasibility, risk assessment, etc. Therefore, no mature and systematic petroleum reserve theories have been formed up to now.Peoples argue the issue of objective of SPR, function, mode,cost, effect, etc. There are still many bifurcations, so, it is necessary to make more detailed demonstration, and provide some scientific decision-making strategy for the governments. In this paper, several significant problems are solved,for instance, the option of SPR facilities, the research on the principal characteristics of floating oil storage vessels, the analysis of mooring system for oil storage vessels, the design of breakwater and the calculation of failure probability, the risk assessment of floating oil storage system, etc.