Investment and the real exchange rate’s profitability channel in Mexico

The paper estimates different versions of an equation for private investment in Mexico during the post-liberalization period 1988–2013, with the aim of studying the operation of the recently discussed real exchange rate’s profitability channel. During this period, the real exchange rate (RER) was broadly positively correlated with the Mexican price/wage ratio and the Mexican/US relative profit margin in the manufacturing sector, particularly so when the RER experienced large fluctuations, before the end of disinflation in the early 2000s. In the estimations, the effect of the profit margin appears to be ‘deeper’, wiping out the effect of the RER when the two variables are included together in the investment equation. From this, the paper argues that the positive effect of the RER on investment, observed in previous studies that omitted the profit margin, reflects indirectly the positive link of the RER with the profit margin, supporting the existence of a profitability channel in Mexico.     

Volatility activity: Specification and estimation

The paper examines volatility activity and its asymmetry and undertakes further specification analysis of volatility models based on it. We develop new nonparametric statistics using high-frequency option-based VIX data to test for asymmetry in volatility jumps. We also develop methods for estimating and evaluating, using price data alone, a general encompassing model for volatility dynamics where volatility activity is unrestricted. The nonparametric application to VIX data, along with model estimation for S&P index returns, suggests that volatility moves are best captured by an infinite variation pure-jump martingale with a symmetric jump compensator around zero. The latter provides a parsimonious generalization of the jump-diffusions commonly used for volatility modeling.     

Australia's Gone Chicken!

Abstract

The gross value of Australia's agriculture industry in 2001/2002 was A$38.4 billion with 65% allocated to exports. The major exports markets are South East Asia, Japan, USA, and the EU. Products include wool, beef, wheat, cotton, sugar, and wine. For Australia there have been significant changes over time in markets and production arrangements in the international arena. This is also true of the domestic market especially in the area of meat products. Australians, once dominant red meat eaters, have now “gone chicken.” The total yearly consumption of meats averages around 110 kg per person. Beef up until recent years has always been the dominant player. However, in the last 30 years chicken consumption has risen from being a marginal food item to being a product that is expected to eclipse beef consumption in the very near future. This paper explores the trends and examines the changes as they are reflected by the behaviour of consumers and market chain drivers. The paper provides suggestions that could be gainfully employed at the consumer behaviour levels for other meat producers.     

How to Attain Desired Outcomes Through Channel Conflict Negotiation

Channel relationships are dynamic and complex. Though much of channel literature has dealt with power, dependency, and conflict resolution, relatively little research focuses on how channel members apply different modes of negotiation to resolve channel conflicts and, most important, how they finagle their ways through different stages of negotiation to obtain desirable outcomes. This article suggests that in deciding which strategy to adopt to effectively negotiate with others, channel members should take into account two vital outcomes during the negotiation process: substantive gain and relationship outcome. Integrating high versus low levels for each of these two types of outcomes, this study develops a framework for channel conflict negotiation in an international setting and recommends appropriate negotiation strategies for various scenarios and phases of negotiation.     

浙北引水工程方案选优指标体系及其综合评价

浙北引水工程是解决浙北地区缺水问题的有效措施之一。为了对浙北引水工程的3个拟定方案——新安江方案、富春江方案和太湖-富春江方案进行选优评价,本文建立了基于资源-社会-经济-环境-工程技术模型的浙北引水工程方案选优综合评价指标体系,并采用降半梯形法确定末级指标隶属度,将层次分析法与变异系数法确定的末级指标权重进行加权求和以确定综合权重,最后采用模糊综合评价法对各方案进行综合评价,评价结果认为太湖-富春江方案的近期实施可行性较大,新安江方案近期实施难度较大,但亦有可能作为浙江省水资源远景规划的备用水源方案。     

Diel variation of limnological parameters in a reservoir in northeastern Brazil (Boa Esperança, Maranhão/Piauí): Rainy period

The diel variation of limnological parameters, measured in Boa Esperança Reservoir, Brazil during the rainy period, exhibited small temperature gradients characterized by an increase in temperature by midday, followed by a partial homogenization of the water column in the night and the early morning. The result was an increase in the epilimnion to a depth of 17 m. The pH and dissolved oxygen concentrations showed higher values at the surface, with the occurrence of anomalies (concentrations higher than at the surface) of the latter variable in the epilimnion, probably as a result of the activity of primary producers and/or losses of oxygen to the atmosphere. The chemical forms of iron in the reservoir exhibited increasing concentrations with depth, as a result of an increase in the concentration of seston and/or accentuated reduction of the levels of oxygen in the bottom layers. The reduction of Fe³⁺ to Fe²⁺ in the bottom water layers in the reservoir, in addition to the primary production process in the epilimnion, could explain the increased phosphorus in the bottom water layer. The concentrations of nitrogen compounds did not exhibit relevant changes or a defined evolution profile, except for nitrate, which showed an outstanding increase in the bottom water layers, suggesting it could be an important nitrogen source for primary producers. Although not unequivocal, these data suggest that ecosystem instability in Boa Esperança Reservoir is the product of short diel thermal variations, and the reduced input of allochthonous materials and nutrients from local catchment. These conditions guarantee the oligotrophic status of Boa Esperança Reservoir for the present time.     

江苏省渠道防渗模式应用分析

针对江苏省不同地区自然地形、土壤、水资源的特点,分析了渠道防渗的适宜地区,并对防渗断面形式及防渗结构的选择进行了简述,针对江苏省范围内各区域土壤、地貌、水文等条件差异,遵循同一类型区工程建设特性一致性的原则,将全省划分为6个区域:徐淮平原区、水网圩田平原区、沿海平原区、沿江平原区、高沙平原区和低山丘陵区,分别提出各区适宜的渠道防渗模式。     

新情势下黄河口演变与整治研究思路

基于黄河口水沙变异的新情况以及经济发展和生态环境建设的新需求,提出新情势下黄河口演变与整治的研究思路。针对目前研究中需要突破的薄弱环节,瞄准国际河口学领域中的前沿问题,采用多学科交叉和多种研究手段,对黄河口开展创新研究。主要研究:黄河口水沙变异特征,尾闾河道枯萎机制及其演变响应,拦门沙演变响应过程及其反馈影响;河口泥沙通量,最大浑浊带、泥沙异重流形成机理,河口海岸淤进、蚀退及其动力平衡机制;黄河口陆海相互作用的整体数模,河口演变趋势与入海流路使用年限;新情势下黄河口治理对策及水土资源优化配置。     

絮凝法处理斑点叉尾鱼回鱼宰杀废水的研究

通过比较不同絮凝剂对斑点叉尾鱼回鱼宰杀废水的处理效果,得出聚合硫酸铁(PFS)的絮凝效果最佳的结论。并且研究了静置时间、pH值,聚合硫酸铁用量,搅拌时间和温度对处理斑点叉尾鱼回鱼宰杀废水絮凝效果的影响,得出最佳絮凝条件为:静置时间4 h,pH值为9,聚铁用量6 g/L,搅拌时间6min,温度20℃。此时蛋白质,CODCr及SS的去处率分别达到了91.65%,88.42%和99.30%。     

基于生物习性和流量变化的南水北调西线调水河道的生态需水估算

提出一种基于生态保护对象的生活习性和流量变化的河道生态需水(EIFR)估算方法,简记为习变法(LiHaflo-Va)。方法通过建立流量变化与生物习性的定量联系,确定主要生态保护对象生活习性关键月份,既具有水文学方法的简便优势,又能尽可能多地考虑生物学特性,能较好地解决资料缺乏地区的生态需水估算问题。EFIR的计算包括两部分,对关键月,EIFR为该月中值流量与该月的流量变异系数的乘积。对其它月份,EIFR为90%超过概率流量与全年各月流量变异系数最小值之乘积。应用该法计算了南水北调西线一期工程包括达曲、泥曲、色曲、杜柯河、玛柯河和阿柯河等6条调水河流的生态需水。结果表明,河道内多年平均状态每年需保持的水量占多年平均年径流量的比例在达曲至少为24.7%,泥曲为46.4%,色曲为21.7%,杜柯河为21.6%,玛柯河为15.0%,阿柯河为15.7%。该比例系数基于研究区生态保护对象的生活习性,是流域的客观反映,可以作为制定工程最大可调水量的依据。计算表明,在工农业生产及居民生活用水大约占多年平均年径流量的6%的条件下,6条河多年平均意义上每年最大可调水总量为41.87×108m3,占6条河多年平均总径流量(60.5×108m3)的69.2%。