International Competitiveness: A Case Study of American,Swedish, and Ukrainian Forest Industries

ABSTRACT

The objectives of this article are to assess changes in the international competitiveness of the forest products industries in three countries (Sweden, the US, and Ukraine) during the years preceding, during, and after the recent economic crisis. To deepen the exploration of the three countries’ competitiveness, we propose a Cross-Country Relative Competitiveness Index. The results show that comprehensive measurement of comparative and competitive advantages is essential for determining why a given industry in a given country is doing well or badly. They also provide broad background information for subsequent, more detailed explorations of important changes and trends.     

贵州典型喀斯特流域水资源可持续利用对策研究

本文基于喀斯特水资源与生态环境之间的耦合关系,建立了典型喀斯特流域水资源可持续利用评价模型,即采用模糊综合评判作为主要评价方法,确立了评价体系,通过改进层次分析法确定了指标权重,划定了评价指标等级,并根据相对隶属度原理,建立相对隶属度公式确定了评价矩阵.应用该评价模型对选取的典型喀斯特流域进行评价,通过评价发现问题并提出了相应的对策措施.     

RECOVERING PORTFOLIO DEFAULT INTENSITIES IMPLIED BY CDO QUOTES

We propose a stable nonparametric algorithm for the calibration of “top‐down” pricing models for portfolio credit derivatives: given a set of observations of market spreads for collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tranches, we construct a risk‐neutral default intensity process for the portfolio underlying the CDO which matches these observations, by looking for the risk‐neutral loss process “closest” to a prior loss process, verifying the calibration constraints. We formalize the problem in terms of minimization of relative entropy with respect to the prior under calibration constraints and use convex duality methods to solve the problem: the dual problem is shown to be an intensity control problem, characterized in terms of a Hamilton–Jacobi system of differential equations, for which we present an analytical solution. Given a set of observed CDO tranche spreads, our method allows to construct a default intensity process which leads to tranche spreads consistent with the observations. We illustrate our method on ITRAXX index data: our results reveal strong evidence for the dependence of loss transitions rates on the previous number of defaults, and offer quantitative evidence for contagion effects in the (risk‐neutral) loss process.     

相对付出优势对忠诚计划参与意愿的影响效应

本文研究了顾客为获得忠诚计划回报需付出的努力与顾客的参与意愿之间的关系。根据社会比较理论，顾客会以自己与其他顾客的比较结果作为线索，评价在此计划上的相对付出，并根据比较结果决定参与意愿。本文通过三个实验，分别操纵被试的个人努力、其他顾客的参考努力、以隐性方式操纵其他顾客的参考努力等三种情境，来验证以上命题。研究结果发现：（1）顾客考虑是否参与忠诚计划时，会根据与其他顾客比较的相对付出努力作为参考做出决策；（2）当存在相对付出优势时（个人努力〈参考努力），高的回报标准反而能提高顾客的参与意愿；（3）当存在相对付出劣势时（个人努力〉参考努力），高的回报标准削弱了顾客的参与意愿。     

ROBUST ASSET ALLOCATION WITH BENCHMARKED OBJECTIVES

In this paper, we introduce a new approach for finding robust portfolios when there is model uncertainty. It differs from the usual worst‐case approach in that a (dynamic) portfolio is evaluated not only by its performance when there is an adversarial opponent (“nature”), but also by its performance relative to a stochastic benchmark. The benchmark corresponds to the wealth of a fictitious benchmark investor who invests optimally given knowledge of the model chosen by nature, so in this regard, our objective has the flavor of min–max regret. This relative performance approach has several important properties: (i) optimal portfolios seek to perform well over the entire range of models and not just the worst case, and hence are less pessimistic than those obtained from the usual worst‐case approach; (ii) the dynamic problem reduces to a convex static optimization problem under reasonable choices of the benchmark portfolio for important classes of models including ambiguous jump‐diffusions; and (iii) this static problem is dual to a Bayesian version of a single period asset allocation problem where the prior on the unknown parameters (for the dual problem) correspond to the Lagrange multipliers in this duality relationship. This dual static problem can be interpreted as a less pessimistic alternative to the single period worst‐case Markowitz problem. More generally, this duality suggests that learning and robustness are closely related when benchmarked objectives are used.     

The Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure and the Valuation Problem in Incomplete Markets

Let χ be a family of stochastic processes on a given filtered probability space (Ω, F, (F_t)_t∈T, P) with T?R₊. Under the assumption that the set M_e of equivalent martingale measures for χ is not empty, we give sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique equivalent martingale measure that minimizes the relative entropy, with respect to P, in the class of martingale measures. We then provide the characterization of the density of the minimal entropy martingale measure, which suggests the equivalence between the maximization of expected exponential utility and the minimization of the relative entropy.     

陕西省城乡居民收入差距的实证分析

自1981～2005年的25年间,以5年为一个考察期,对陕西省城乡居民平均绝对收入差距、平均相对收入差距进行考察和分析,发现在5个考察期中,陕西城乡居民平均绝对收入差距呈现指数增长的趋势,平均相对收入差距也在不断的上升。笔者认为只有不断对二元制度进行一元化改革和调整,以及在对农业方面进行持续和力度足够投资的基础上,才能在根本上缩小陕西城乡居民收入差距,缓解由城乡收入差距带来的各种社会矛盾,从而有利于和谐陕西早日实现。     

Non-convex optimal portfolio sets and constant relative risk aversion

This paper shows by example that, under constant relative risk aversion (CRRA), the set of optimal portfolios can be non-convex even in the presence of a complete set of Arrow-Debreu securities. This implies that, with exclusively CRRA investors, market models without a strong distributional assumption such as that of the capital asset pricing model cannot be tested by testing the optimality of the market portfolio, or by assuming a representative investor. This demonstration extends the key result of Dybvig and Ross [Dybvig, P. H., & Ross S. A. (1982). Portfolio efficient sets. Econometrica, 50, 1525–1546], who showed an example of non-convexity with less restrictive utility assumptions but which could not apply to the case of a complete set of Arrow-Debreu securities.     

The impact of MAS on perceived auditor independence-some evidence from Denmark

The Enron case has highlighted that the provision of management advisory services (MAS) can endanger auditor independence. Recently, a number of changes have not only been made to the relevant international and US regulations, but also to the Danish regulations in this area. Theoretical research explains the emergence of non-independence and demonstrates that the provision of MAS can decrease independence. According to the economic model of DeAngelo, the existence of client-specific quasi-rents impairs auditor independence. The provision of MAS increases quasi-rents and thus, is a threat to independence. Antle used an agency theoretical approach. Information asymmetries between auditor and client could lead to a moral hazard risk, i.e. the auditor could give up independence from client's management and accept payments for withholding detected errors and irregularities. The client's management could also use MAS to legally compensate the auditor for giving away independence.A large number of empirical studies have investigated the influence of MAS on the perceived independence of the auditor. Most of these studies were performed in English speaking countries and the majority found a negative impact. Sociological research reveals cultural differences between English speaking and Nordic countries, e.g. concerning the dimension ‘masculinity’. Thus, an empirical investigation of the impact of MAS on perceived auditor independence in Denmark is promising. It was found that shareholders, bank loan officers and journalists perceive a negative effect on auditor independence if MAS are provided. The recent liberalization in Denmark is inconsistent with this finding. Furthermore, it was shown that the type of MAS influences the degree to which auditor independence is perceived to be impaired. Thus, independence rules related to MAS should be differentiated. Additionally, the study ascertained that perceived auditor independence does not increase if MAS are provided by a separate department of the audit firm. An internal separation of the auditing and the consulting function within the same audit firm is not viewed as being beneficial in Denmark.     

反复荷载作用下饱和砂土的一种普遍弹塑性模型

本文建立了一个反映饱和砂土在动荷作用下反应特性的弹塑性模型.该模型通过引入相对应力比的概念使得应力路径上的每一个点都处于加载状态.模型不显式定义屈服面和塑性势函数，而是由破坏面、流动方向、初始加载面、加载方向和塑性模量等部分组成，具有参数少且易确定等特点.通过和试验数据的比较证明了该模型的合理性.