旱情预报技术进展与展望

受全球气候变化影响和人类活动的加剧,干旱灾害发生频次增加且强度增大,严重威胁着我国的粮食安全和水安全。准确及时的旱情预报,对于制定科学有效的干旱应对策略、减少灾害造成的损失具有重大意义。从基于数理统计模型的预报技术和基于物理机制模型的预报技术两方面入手,梳理回顾了国内外研究进展,揭示了当前预报技术所存在的问题,并提出针对性的解决方案。未来研究应注重提高干旱监测数据的质量、突破核心关键技术、构建全国旱情预报业务化系统,为抗旱减灾事业提供强有力的科技支撑。     

河套盆地晚更新世以来黄河改道对高砷地下水分布的控制机制

针对河套盆地开展了历时多年的水文地质环境地质调查,利用采集的298组浅层地下水样品以及收集并甄选的382个水文地质钻孔记录分析发现:河套盆地内95%的高砷地下水(As质量浓度10μg/L)集中在黄河决口、改道形成的古河道影响带及黄河决口扇裙带。其中,盆地南部首次发现了较为集中的高砷地下水,其分布范围与黄河北岸的晚更新世以来黄河决口、改道形成的4个大型决口扇,在空间上有着良好的对应关系。黄河古河道带及决口扇裙带表现为较强的还原环境及蒸发浓缩作用以及较弱的地表水补给强度。受pH值、含铁氧化物的还原性溶解等因素影响,决口扇裙带浅层地下水中砷的含量略低于平原中部黄河古河道带。结果表明:黄河古河道带及决口扇裙带特定的沉积环境控制着地下水的水文地球化学过程,进而对高砷地下水的分布具有决定性的作用。     

华北中部平原地表水入渗试验 ——以南宫溹泸河为例

华北平原中部地区含水砂层颗粒细且薄,对地下水储蓄和地表水入渗不利。选择河道带进行地表水入渗试验,以获取最大地下储蓄空间,为该区水资源合理利用提供良策。试验区选在南宫溹泸河,人工引水1.5个月,获取大量监测数据,据此对地下水位和水量的变化特征、入渗量和地下水库调蓄能力进行研究,结果表明：干涸河道引水入渗,入渗比例可达80.54%;溹泸河上下游2个断面Ⅰ-Ⅰ′和Ⅱ-Ⅱ′河道垂向渗透速度为10.81 m/d和10.72 m/d;水平扩散速度为1.69 m/h和2.38 m/h。由于Ⅰ-Ⅰ′断面垂向渗透速度大于Ⅱ-Ⅱ′断面,而水平扩散速度小于Ⅱ-Ⅱ′断面,所以Ⅰ-Ⅰ′断面形成的水丘相比Ⅱ-Ⅱ′断面较为明显,且不易消散。计算结果显示,试验区调蓄库容为1.87亿m3。     

Simpler Probabilistic Population Forecasts: Making Scenarios Work

The traditional high-low-medium scenario approach to quantifying uncertainty in population forecasts has been criticized as lacking probabilistic meaning and consistency. This paper shows, under certain assumptions, how appropriately calibrated scenarios can be used to approximate the uncertainty intervals on future population size and age structure obtained with fully stochastic forecasts. As many forecasting organizations already produce scenarios and because dealing with them is familiar territory, the methods presented here offer an attractive intermediate position between probabilistically inconsistent scenario analysis and fully stochastic forecasts.     

Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models

Nine macroeconomic variables are forecast in a real-time scenario using a variety of flexible specification, fixed specification, linear, and nonlinear econometric models. All models are allowed to evolve through time, and our analysis focuses on model selection and performance. In the context of real-time forecasts, flexible specification models (including linear autoregressive models with exogenous variables and nonlinear artificial neural networks) appear to offer a useful and viable alternative to less flexible fixed specification linear models for a subset of the economic variables which we examine, particularly at forecast horizons greater than 1-step ahead. We speculate that one reason for this result is that the economy is evolving (rather slowly) over time. This feature cannot easily be captured by fixed specification linear models, however, and manifests itself in the form of evolving coefficient estimates. We also provide additional evidence supporting the claim that models which ‘win’ based on one model selection criterion (say a squared error measure) do not necessarily win when an alternative selection criterion is used (say a confusion rate measure), thus highlighting the importance of the particular cost function which is used by forecasters and ‘end-users’ to evaluate their models. A wide variety of different model selection criteria and statistical tests are used to illustrate our findings.     

灰色理论在城市总体规划中的应用研究

在编制城市总体规划时收集的资料和信息往往是不完全和不对称的，很多数据需要通过科学的理论去建立合理的模型来推算，本文采用灰色理论建模，以GDP预测为例详细说明了灰色预测模型GM（1，1）的建模过程。该模型对于预测城市总体规划中水文、人口、用地规模、城市化水平、交通运输发展、公共交通以及客货运量等具有普遍指导意义。     

Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model

Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations.     

Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data: Adding polls to a structural forecasting model

Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables to predict the incumbent’s vote share usually a few months in advance. Some political scientists contend that adding vote intention polls to these models—i.e., synthesizing ‘fundamental’ variables and polling information—can lead to important accuracy gains. In this paper, we look at the efficiency of different model specifications in predicting the Canadian federal elections from 1953 to 2015. We find that vote intention polls only allow modest accuracy gains late in the campaign. With this backdrop in mind, we then use different model specifications to make ex ante forecasts of the 2019 federal election. Our findings have a number of important implications for the forecasting discipline in Canada as they address the benefits of combining polls and ‘fundamental’ variables to predict election results; the efficiency of varying lag structures; and the issue of translating votes into seats.     

水库水温分层对浮式取水口前流速分布的影响

由于目前缺乏对浮式取水口前流场变化规律的研究,以分析水库水温分层对取水口前各断面流速分布影响为目标,依据某水库水温资料,采用k-ε紊流模型对浮式取水口前流场进行三维数值模拟,针对水库水温均一和水温分层的两种情况,研究取水口前流速分布,分析水库水温分层对取水口前各断面流速分布的影响。研究结果表明,在浮式取水口附近,水温均一和水温分层的流速分布存在着差异,这种差距随着取水流量和淹没深度的增大而减小。研究成果可为浮式管型取水设施的应用和运行提供技术支持,为取水水温预测提供理论依据。     

入海水道二期对洪泽湖地区洪水风险的影响研究

为探究淮河入海水道二期工程对洪泽湖的泄洪能力以及周边滞洪区的影响,在对研究区河网概化及地形处理的基础上,建立了研究区河网一维、洪泽湖湖区与周边滞洪区二维耦合的水动力数值模型,并采用1991,2003,2006,2007四年实测历史洪水资料对模型进行率定及验证。基于现状工况、规划工况以及不同洪水量级,设计了5个对比方案对研究区进行洪水演进数值模拟,对不同洪水量级进行横向对比,对不同工况进行纵向对比,并对不同方案进行淹没面积分析和洪水影响分析。结果表明,入海水道二期工程的启用可以有效降低洪泽湖水位,提高洪泽湖的防洪标准和周边滞洪区的启用标准,减少同等洪水量级下的受影响人口数和区域GDP,为洪泽湖的防洪安全建设以及周边蓄滞洪区的稳定发展创造了条件。